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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2020


IrishRob17
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One thing to keep in mind is the rgem specifically and the NAM to a degree are picking up on a very intense band. Initially the rgem had that band south but now 2 runs in a row it has cut right through orange and dutchess. Will be interesting to see how this continues to play out with modeling and then of course plays out with the event. The 40” totals are obviously overblown but in those bands 20+ maybe 24? Where ever that banding reaches up to, just north of it will probably have a pretty extreme cut off. 

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40 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t excited with tonight’s runs. Now the ukmet and cmc way north.

The UK mid-levels were about as good as it gets for us. That model and the Euro are a killer duo when they're in lock-step... if the Euro shows a nice hit, I'll feel a lot more confident in the potential for double-digit totals.

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6 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Ugh. I'm having such a hard time betting against the GFS. The southerly solution has made the most sense to me for almost a week now, and this isn't 2010... the GFS is good. I'd definitely at least toss it in the stew to help balance out the ridiculous Canadian QPF. 

It truly will be interesting to see how this plays out.  You have to give the GFS credit for being consistent with the more southerly snows but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to believe ALL the three models are wrong. 

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It truly will be interesting to see how this plays out.  You have to give the GFS credit for being consistent with the more southerly snows but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to believe ALL the three models are wrong. 

Not to rain on anyone’s parade up there (no pun intended), but from my untrained experience, why would we believe that a cold high as strong as the one coming into play would give up against a relatively weaker low, and pushing really big totals pretty far north? TIA. (Not pushing for my own sake; believe me, I saw it first hand in February 2010, and some other storms way back when.)

Only asking out of my experience from seeing these things for years, back to WeatherStar 2000 or whatever it was when TWC thrilled me with the dark red screen of death interrupting my regular programming.


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1 hour ago, North and West said:


Not to rain on anyone’s parade up there (no pun intended), but from my untrained experience, why would we believe that a cold high as strong as the one coming into play would give up against a relatively weaker low, and pushing really big totals pretty far north? TIA. (Not pushing for my own sake; believe me, I saw it first hand in February 2010, and some other storms way back when.)

Only asking out of my experience from seeing these things for years, back to WeatherStar 2000 or whatever it was when TWC thrilled me with the dark red screen of death interrupting my regular programming.


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You see that 12 from this mornings GFS run right over southern Orange County, we haven't seen anything close to that from GFS regarding this storm. It even has a 6 up past Kingston where it's been insistent in past runs accumulating snows wouldn't even make it that far north.

We seem to be in a 12-24 inch range (from north to south in the HV) on every model now. I never spike the football until my yardstick goes in the ground to verify but after last nights 0Z suites and this mornings GFS I'm starting to breathe a little easier.

Also remember this is 10:1 ratios, in the HV ratios should be more in the 12:1 to 14:1 range.
 

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19 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

NAM inching north 

More like lurching north.

The 6Z GFS going north with the heavier snows was the first sign, although many didn't seem to pick up on it or just plain ignored it.

If the N trend continues and somehow I end up sleeting here in Highland Mills I'm done with weather.

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