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January Banter 2020


George BM
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21 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Congrats to Winterwxluvr and Leesburg. HUGE WIN. Cousins played great today. To go into the Superdome and beat the Saints is very impressive. 

 

Cough.

 

19 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Way to go Vikes. Long 3.5 hours for me lol

 

My fitbit heart rate was elevated for the entire 4th Q and OT.  

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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

Cough.

 

 

My fitbit heart rate was elevated for the entire 4th Q and OT.  

Oops my bad. I totally forgot about you. Congrats. Great game. Your fitbit heart rate must have reached levels that you only normally hit in the bedroom. 

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18 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

Cough.

 

 

My fitbit heart rate was elevated for the entire 4th Q and OT.  

I thought the Viking's play calling in the 4th quarter was pretty bad.  They kept running the runs mostly were going no where.   Cousin's success during the year and in throwing the perfect pass at the end of the game illustrates how poor Allen was at evaluating talent.  I never understood why they frnachised him twice instead of ponying up at the end of his original contract. 

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Wouldn't it be something if through all of this despair and gloom and doom you end up with two minor or decent events by the time the pattern flips and January delivers 6 or more inches of snow by the 20th? I'm excited for you guys. This one tomorrow is exactly the kind of fluke event the Middle Atlantic can accidentally back into. Good luck!

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2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

I thought the Viking's play calling in the 4th quarter was pretty bad.  They kept running the runs mostly were going no where.   Cousin's success during the year and in throwing the perfect pass at the end of the game illustrates how poor Allen was at evaluating talent.  I never understood why they frnachised him twice instead of ponying up at the end of his original contract. 

The multiple outside tosses to Cook from the 2 yard line drove me crazy!  That is a much better play when everyone is spread out, not when the LBs are within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage!

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29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The multiple outside tosses to Cook from the 2 yard line drove me crazy!  That is a much better play when everyone is spread out, not when the LBs are within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage!

And always left...I'm with you that's a space call but cook has scored a few to the right this year

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Really happy to read the changes in the storm thread about salting by MDOT.  VDOT needs to change that asap too.  Terrible impacts on our waterways and a waste of money, too.  

SHA for MD over salts my road every year. Snow emergency route. Our well in the front yard is ****ed

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7 hours ago, usedtobe said:

I think the dewpoints tomorrow at 12Z are forecast to be in the upper teens west of the city and around 20 in the city so the cooling looks real especially if we get close to 09.25 " in 3 hours or so.  That's a pretty good thump.  Still, I'd only go with a coating to an inch aroudn the city and maybe 1 to 2 out west even though the models are showing the most precip south of us. 

Over 3"/hr liquid equivalent rates meaning snowfall rates of as much as 30"+/hr?! Me thinks this will have RDMs glacier experience beat bigly! I'm so far in that I'm actually now trapped inside and don't even know whether I can get back out. It's strange and dark in here with faint clouds of what look like memories or hypothetical fantasies of Armaggeddon-like storms crushing my neighborhood? Should I call 911? Will they even be able to reach me here? 

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm already working on new material for the obs thread. Things like "dendrites are so fat they're setting off car alarms" and stuff. 

I'll say this.... if these soundings and fronto panels are right, it's going to be quite a show for some people tomorrow. Might be best rates since Jan 2016...

I've heard of a strange phenomenon that can sometimes occur when snowfall rates get very heavy. People say that the sky will flash (kind of like a camera flash) with either the color white, pink or sometimes even blue. They will then hear a crashing noise usually a couple seconds later... but in some cases within that second and loud. I hear of this happening quite a bit with lake-effect snow squalls from the Great Lakes. I've never experienced this phenomenon in person but it certainly sounds cool and unique. What exactly do you call this phenomenon and do we at least have the slightest chance ( at least a 1 in 100 chance) of seeing this phenomenon occur somewhere within this region if we can get strong enough lift tomorrow? 

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@George BM

Thundersnow typically requires a very vigorous upper level low and/or a bombing surface low as it crosses our latitude. Neither is on tap for tommorrow. There's good upper level support for periods of heavy rates but I don't see much chance for a light show. 

ETA: lake effect is basically low topped convection so mesoscale dynamics can be intense with avg upper level support.

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7 minutes ago, George BM said:

I've heard of a strange phenomenon that can sometimes occur when snowfall rates get very heavy. People say that the sky will flash (kind of like a camera flash) with either the color white, pink or sometimes even blue. They will then hear a crashing noise usually a couple seconds later... but in some cases within that second and loud. I hear of this happening quite a bit with lake-effect snow squalls from the Great Lakes. I've never experienced this phenomenon in person but it certainly sounds cool and unique. What exactly do you call this phenomenon and do we at least have the slightest chance ( at least a 1 in 100 chance) of seeing this phenomenon occur somewhere within this region if we can get strong enough lift tomorrow? 

Is it like some very low lightning type thing? Could also be the people on the other side of the rain/snow line raging and trying to melt the snow with laser pointers...

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't want to post this in the disco thread and get everyone all riled up.... EPS mean high temps this weekend are in the mid 60s. That's very impressive for a 52 member mean... There must be a bunch of solutions near 70. Being honest... I would LOVE a weekend in the 60s

AFD this morning was even mentioning a threat for severe weather lol

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't want to post this in the disco thread and get everyone all riled up.... EPS mean high temps this weekend are in the mid 60s. That's very impressive for a 52 member mean... There must be a bunch of solutions near 70. Being honest... I would LOVE a weekend in the 60s

This snow threat and this weekends torch have been advertised by the ensembles from very long range. Like 12 days plus. Pretty damn good.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This snow threat and this weekends torch have been advertised by the ensembles from very long range. Like 12 days plus. Pretty damn good.

Yea man, since mid Dec the ensembles have been on fire across the board. Nearly every major move has been telegraphed far in advance. One of the better years in recent memory for ens guidance. EPS has been pretty amazing and that's why I don't really doubt the d10-15 flip. Give me 2 more runs with a similar progression and I'll be very confident with where we're going. 

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40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't want to post this in the disco thread and get everyone all riled up.... EPS mean high temps this weekend are in the mid 60s. That's very impressive for a 52 member mean... There must be a bunch of solutions near 70. Being honest... I would LOVE a weekend in the 60s

Snow on Tuesday followed by 70 on Saturday is how we do winter in the mid-Atlantic.  

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Check out this P&C near Johnson Ridge in WA (elevation ~10k feet):

This Afternoon
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Wind chill values between 6 and 11. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 31 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible. 
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a west southwest wind 28 to 33 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 22. Wind chill values between zero and 6. Windy, with a south southwest wind 41 to 46 mph decreasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible. 
Tuesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. 
Wednesday
Snow before 10am, then snow showers likely between 10am and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. High near 18. Windy, with a west wind 29 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 
Wednesday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This is a legitimate event for us. The 500 pattern looks good. Ridge out west is in the right place, the 500 trough is deepening as it crosses the Appalachians, heights falling as it crosses to our south, coastal even pops closer to the Delmarva. It has room to become more than what it is but rates will be there. I’m usually pessimistic on here, but this is a threat. West of 95 has a legit shot at 2-4, with 1-2 from about Fairfax to DC. Wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the subforum got 5”. 

Someone says hi :snowing:

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19 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Check out this P&C near Johnson Ridge in WA (elevation ~10k feet):

This Afternoon
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Wind chill values between 6 and 11. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 31 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible. 
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a west southwest wind 28 to 33 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 22. Wind chill values between zero and 6. Windy, with a south southwest wind 41 to 46 mph decreasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible. 
Tuesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. 
Wednesday
Snow before 10am, then snow showers likely between 10am and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. High near 18. Windy, with a west wind 29 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 
Wednesday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

This part cracks me up 

“the snow could be heavy at times, daytime accumulation of 35-41” possible”

Could be heavy at times???  ya think?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This part cracks me up 

“the snow could be heavy at times, daytime accumulation of 35-41” possible”

Could be heavy at times???  ya think?

ha, I thought the same thing when I first read it.  I wonder what the threshold for heavy for them is....is under 30” during the afternoon just be snow showers??

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