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January Banter 2020


George BM
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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

:lol: not this Redneck lol

 

I got 60 days left of legit tracking.  It could start as early as Saturday evening when the ns energy swings through...it could touch off some snow flurries or a ss 

In all seriousness hanging it up on 1/31 is pure silliness. 

Why? All the best met minds have pretty much thrown in the towel. LR no hint of anything minus a fluke (all we can hope for)

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Winters like this are tough on the psyche...but a part of me is saying that life is way too short to be depressed over weather the way I have been this year and years past. But yet....here we are. Ain't nothin' worse than being in a good mood, but then remembering that snow may not come again for another 11-12 months barring a fluke...and it just kinda sucks the life outta ya. Makes it like...there isn't anything to look forward to in January and February if there's no snow.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya think so?? I mean...what other explanation for 1995-96 could there be? Ain't no way a la nina does that without help from some anomalous force, lol

First of all...1996 isn't the ONLY nina fluke.  There was a year in the early 1900s...I can't remember if it was 1905 or 1909 but I remember years ago when doing research there was a nina year around then that was an epic snow year in DC.  When the NAO is negative during a nina we actually can get snow.  The problem is the pacific pattern correlated to a nina is also correlated to a +NAO so often we get both a bad pacific AND atlantic in a nina.  Kind of like this year.  

This is the composite of all the Nina years in the last 30 years OTHER than 1996.  Look at the typical pacific pattern

nina.png.5f8718744133df54a7b6b9e258de3bd5.png

But look at the pacific in 1996

1996.png.240ccdfdccb480c36d48330ddc8ae1be.png

The pacific pattern never aligned with a typical nina response.  Or in other words...the Nina didn't "couple" with the atmosphere in the pacific.  Kind of the same as how last year the nino never coupled and we failed to get the expected results.  That could have happened for various reasons.  Could have been a disconnect with the AAM or the walker cells or the mjo.  I would have to do a case study and I don't have time right now.  Maybe that is something worth doing sometime.  The low solar state certainly could have contributed to enhancing the blocking...but the fact the pacific wasn't actually in a typical nina pattern that is hostile to blocking likely had at least as much if not more to do with it.  

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On 1/27/2020 at 8:45 AM, Mrs.J said:

I over the past year after dealing with daily migraines and anxiety/depression have decided to live day by day. I have taken a new look at weather and have stopped looking at anything past 3 days. Some may say I am sticking my head in the sand with all the information we have out there 10-12 days out, but it along with finally having my migraines under control and understanding that there are things I do not have control over has made this year so much better. I have learned to be happy with surprises. So the lack of snow this year has not bothered me at all. 

I envy the mental position you were able to get with this...(and I can empathize with the anxiety/depression--I struggle with that too). Living day by day is indeed important...yet in this weather hobby, here were are trying to live 7-12 days in the future, lol I'm trying not to be depressed about not having snow...but it's a challenge for whatever reason.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call 

Dead?

Add me to the watch list. I'm not ready just yet. My threshold is Feb 10. If nothing even remotely promising on the horizon then rip my beating heart out, set it ablaze, and toss it into the Pac Ocean as a sacrifice to the SST Gods for next winter. 10 more days.....

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Put it this way.  If I lived 300 feet below sea level on Assateague island with the wild ponies I'd still think it was silly to give up on Winter . While many were canceling the first 3 weeks of January I was shoveling on January 7th and then watching snow accumulation again on the 8th and then again on the 18th with a snow to ice storm . The thing is much of our frozen events are nickel and dime and occur in so so patterns or even hostile patterns and so called shutout patterns. Truthfully I don't look much past 8-10 days but casually.  Once theres a threat..matter how low chance I start tracking that with only a brief look ahead . Plus...I have a passion for year around tracking ie.. ( flash flood events, tropical,  severe ,locusts etc) . If it snows great..if not ...its ok ..it will again . Plus I have lots of other hobbies which include and not limited too..

Drinking cold beer

 hot lil brunettes 

Tearing up the street in my 87' GN 

Watching baseball 

Keeping up with 2 teen daughters 

Jamming to lots of music

Running my electrical business. 

Next year will be a-buzzin'!

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call?

Watch list or Reaper call 

Dead?

Dang it Reaper. I keep telling you. It's time for a mass sacrifice. We need to appease the Snow Gods. They hunger.

Of course it doesn't hurt my stock options either. ;)

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow.  If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat.  

When location adjustment ain't an option...adjustment in mindset/psychology is the only other option. Ya don't even have to have 100% of the happiness depend on it...it can dampen anything even if 50% of your happiness depends on it. To those who have fuller lives, it's probably a bit easier than those whose lives may not be as full of other things to focus on. Then snow (or the potential of it) becomes something to look forward to (even if the potential is wildly inconsistent)...even the ambiance snow. So I get it...(I swear I've been wanting to setup a snow lover psychology thread...lol)

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46 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early  Jan and now talking about March.

just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years  and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working. 

 

Thanks. So now that you have let us know what doesn’t work...what does?  You complained all we do is model worship so now is your chance. Analyze the long range pattern anyway you want. No one will stop you. But listening to you do nothing but complain about how everyone else does something gets old. 

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