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January Banter 2020


George BM
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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, and the entire eastern half of the conus has been roasting for ALL of jan. There's areas north of us with nearly +10 anoms for Jan. We aren't far behind.  @MN Transplant posted the national Jan anom chart just a day or 2 ago. I've never seen a worse one for Jan in my life. I'm sure there's been worse but I don't remember any off the top of my head. 

January 2006

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

No, it won't but that doesn't change how I feel.  I have the exact same gnawing existential dread linked to climate change that Maestrobjwa seems to describe.  I wish I could consciously chose to not care, but I can't.  I am not made that way.

I'm not trying to "convert" you (not that you could be converted anyway).  Just expressing my feelings in a safe space with other people who love cold and snow.

No one needs to be defensive. Everyone is free to feel however they want.  And it’s not like I’m totally thrilled about this. Im just trying to lesson the misery. Serenity now and all that jazz. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one needs to be defensive. Everyone is free to feel however they want.  And it’s not like I’m totally thrilled about this. Im just trying to lesson the misery. Serenity now and all that jazz. 

Actually, I really admire your ability to care deeply about it, but yet keep it in healthy perspective.  You enjoy the thrill of the chase and building your understanding of the science, but you keep it in its proper place.

Although I do imagine you have a nice basement weather-cave with 12 giant monitors showing all the models in a continuous loop, and one wall devoted totally to the Joe Bastardi bathtub theory.

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11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

No, it won't but that doesn't change how I feel.  I have the exact same gnawing existential dread linked to climate change that Maestrobjwa seems to describe.  I wish I could consciously chose to not care, but I can't.  I am not made that way.

I'm not trying to "convert" you (not that you could be converted anyway).  Just expressing my feelings in a safe space with other people who love cold and snow.

Man I hear you--I wish I could stop caring about it too. It's like, of all the things in life, you know there are way worse things to be upset about, and yet...for whatever reason, a total lack of snow can get to us.

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3.  What if your fear is right. What if we did flip and it’s never going to snow here much anymore?  Will getting upset every 6 hours when the gfs doesn’t show snow change anything or make it any better?

It won't...and it's it's not so much getting upset every 6 hours, per se...just seeing the repeated fails and such. But again, I don't know how to just file this away and not care. I hope you're right about this and that this doesn't represent some radical change in our snow climo.

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6 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Folks, time to admit that 2009-2016 was our "golden years" period like the 1960s and we are now into a decade of complete shit. A sustained -NAO in DJF may not happen until 2025 at the earliest. Blocking is only for spring and these days high pressures are complete chumps easily brushed aside by 1010 mb lows.

When looking over things this Fall for the coming winter I had a different impression as far as the NAO in the coming years. Got a pretty strong impression we were on the verge of a sustained winter time -NAO regime for the next few years. The bigger question in my mind was whether we would see it manifest this year or not and the signals in that regard were mixed. Obviously it was a Fail this year but for next year I actually have some high hopes. 

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hanging with my 15 and 17 year old daughters at Dunkin this morning.  Work can wait 30 minutes.  Its Quality time :)

I'm not sure which thing I'm more jealous of, chillin with the kids or Dunkin.  Tough call.  :P

Aren't daughters awesome?

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8 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Folks, time to admit that 2009-2016 was our "golden years" period like the 1960s and we are now into a decade of complete shit. A sustained -NAO in DJF may not happen until 2025 at the earliest. Blocking is only for spring and these days high pressures are complete chumps easily brushed aside by 1010 mb lows.

Right and considering we're at solar minimum things aren't looking so good.

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1 minute ago, Zanclidae said:

Right and considering we're at solar minimum things aren't looking so good.

Actually there is typically a little lag between true solar minimum and the response in the AO domain. This is one of the main reasons I favor seeing sustained blocking (AO domain) showing up in the near future. Now whether it translates over into the NAO domain is another question. Couple of things I saw this fall while taking notes for my winter forecast (that I never finished because of time constraints) though gave me the impression that odds were good we would see a favorable NAO regime setting up shortly.

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54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hanging with my 15 and 17 year old daughters at Dunkin this morning.  Work can wait 30 minutes.  Its Quality time :)

nice! I'm home today with a "sick" kid (had a fever yesterday, shes good now but can't go back to school today). Friday in my PJs, on my couch, aint too bad!

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

They are!  I feel extremely lucky I have 2 healthy beautiful daughters that are A students.... and still don't mind being seen with there dad . Though ...I am a cool dad :guitar:

Don't get me wrong.  I also have a son who is a great kid too.  But both daughters do and say stuff that are just different and its great.  Like I have one that will be weird and goofy and another that trolls me incredibly well.  

And yes, I am a cool dad too.  

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44 minutes ago, mappy said:

nice! I'm home today with a "sick" kid (had a fever yesterday, shes good now but can't go back to school today). Friday in my PJs, on my couch, aint too bad!

Same except mine had the fever wednesday and couldn't return until today. Jammies and painting together in watercolors past 2 days! Glad your girl is on the mend.

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43 minutes ago, H2O said:

Don't get me wrong.  I also have a son who is a great kid too.  But both daughters do and say stuff that are just different and its great.  Like I have one that will be weird and goofy and another that trolls me incredibly well.  

And yes, I am a cool dad too.  

I like to consider myself the same but in reality, are we those parents that when the kids go to school they say "My dad is so weird, check out this tik tok he made"? Are we "cool" or just weirdos in disguise that like to have fun?

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I like to consider myself the same but in reality, are we those parents that when the kids go to school they say "My dad is so weird, check out this tik tok he made"? Are we "cool" or just weirdos in disguise that like to have fun?

Knowing you on these boards I think my vote would go to weirdos. ;)

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Same except mine had the fever wednesday and couldn't return until today. Jammies and painting together in watercolors past 2 days! Glad your girl is on the mend.

ha nice! yeah, i told her i would need to get some work done this AM (yes, i do have a job!) and that this afternoon we could do some fun things together.

Thank you :) 

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1 hour ago, Zanclidae said:

Right and considering we're at solar minimum things aren't looking so good.

Most of the -NAO periods were displaced after the minimum. Minimums happened in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008. With the exception of 1996 the periods of extreme blocking cane AFRER minimums. 1977-80. 1987-88. 2010-11.  Perhaps 1996 wasn’t as solar related as we thought.  Maybe the blocking in 1998 which we forget because it didn’t accompany any snow was in response to the 1996 minimum.  Either way the stronger correlation is after minimum not before and it’s not and every year 100% correlation.  If we don’t get a period of blocking in the next few years then I would say WTF  

 

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2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I can't believe my eyes. Justin Berk is actually admitted he lost faith in the flakes. You know it's bad if JB is waving a white flag.

They’ve known for a while. There is no way they didn’t see the same things some of us did a month ago!  It’s just the calculus has finally reached the point it’s not worth spinning anymore. They milked as much time as they can before they risk so much damage to their reputation that it’s not worth it just to string along the 3 people who haven’t figured it out yet.  If an amateur can figure it out a month ago I just don’t think it’s credible they just “saw the light” this week. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Most of the -NAO periods were displaced after the minimum. Minimums happened in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008. With the exception of 1996 the periods of extreme blocking cane AFRER minimums. 1977-80. 1987-88. 2010-11.  Perhaps 1996 wasn’t as solar related as we thought.  Maybe the blocking in 1998 which we forget because it didn’t accompany any snow was in response to the 1996 minimum.  Either way the stronger correlation is after minimum not before and it’s not and every year 100% correlation.  If we don’t get a period of blocking in the next few years then I would say WTF  

 

Ya think so?? I mean...what other explanation for 1995-96 could there be? Ain't no way a la nina does that without help from some anomalous force, lol

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya think so?? I mean...what other explanation for 1995-96 could there be? Ain't no way a la nina does that without help from some anomalous force, lol

The other explanation could be that we don’t know quite as much as we think we know. In other words, we are capable of explaining it.

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