January Banter 2020

[North Balti Zen]

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Next Thursday/Fri/Sat mornings look to have a good chance as well ...but this...talking exact temps at range is silly 

It is somewhat sadly hilarious that we are reduced to hoping for a below freezing morning low at some point in the next 10 days in...late January/early February.

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I bumped the futility thread 10 days ago for a reason...

If spring is pretty much here I wish I didn't get that 2" a few weeks ago. It definitely messed up a good futility record. March snow sucks 95% of the time. Usually white rain. N&W can keep that slop. I want to get my potatoes in early this year and beat the potato beetles that will be out in full force since we didn't have a winter.

[psuhoffman]

People are really driving themselves crazy looking at each run with expectations. I think I’m less frustrated right now because I got the disappointment out of the way a month ago. Back when I made the now infamous “winters over” post I was depressed about it. Not really, but in a this sucks a wasted winter sense.  And I dealt with it. Then moved on. Now I don’t expect anything but suck. Every major global pattern driver is a train wreck. I watch just in case a fluke happens or a pattern change comes but I don’t expect anything to work out. So when it doesn’t I’m not distraught. 

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m horrified to admit that for the past 45 minutes I have been watching the movie Showgirls. There is a large multiple of two reasons of why I should be enjoying it, but it’s indescribably terrible.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People are really driving themselves crazy looking at each run with expectations. I think I’m less frustrated right now because I got the disappointment out of the way a month ago. Back when I made the now infamous “winters over” post I was depressed about it. Not really, but in a this sucks a wasted winter sense.  And I dealt with it. Then moved on. Now I don’t expect anything but suck. Every major global pattern driver is a train wreck. I watch just in case a fluke happens or a pattern change comes but I don’t expect anything to work out. So when it doesn’t I’m not distraught. 

Same feelings shared my white flag raised a bit more recently once our early Feb window began to close. But like you said, we both still look for that fluke system. We would be lying if we said we weren't still hoping that some system that we stumble into could produce as a surprise during this dumpster fire. 

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Same feelings shared my white flag raised a bit more recently once our early Feb window began to close. But like you said, we both still look for that fluke system. We would be lying if we said we weren't still hoping that some system that we stumble into could produce as a surprise during this dumpster fire. 

We're always looking for the fluke. Anything can happen. A true snow lover never gives up. Anyone who say they're not is full of it. Problem is we have no indices on our side. The EPO is our only shot because the Atlantic is not budging.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People are really driving themselves crazy looking at each run with expectations. I think I’m less frustrated right now because I got the disappointment out of the way a month ago. Back when I made the now infamous “winters over” post I was depressed about it. Not really, but in a this sucks a wasted winter sense.  And I dealt with it. Then moved on. Now I don’t expect anything but suck. Every major global pattern driver is a train wreck. I watch just in case a fluke happens or a pattern change comes but I don’t expect anything to work out. So when it doesn’t I’m not distraught. 

lol this is my default mode every winter. I am damn well aware of where I live.

[aldie 22]

I'm not giving up....tomorrow is payday

[Lowershoresadness]

@Bob Chill                If you go snowless for Feb and March, and that's a big if, where would this rank on your list for worst winters ever ?

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

@Bob Chill                If you go snowless for Feb and March, and that's a big if, where would this rank on your list for worst winters ever ?

This would be the biggest disaster in the history of my yard. I'm at just over 3" with my biggest "event" being 1.8". That combined with temps being 100 degrees above normal day in day out is about as bad as it gets. At least cold/dry freezes ponds and I can put my hockey skates on and pretend I'm Dale Hunter. 

[ravensrule]

7 hours ago, H2O said:

 

So what would you want to see changed?  We have people saying we have sticks up places and need to relax and others ready to walk away for good.  

To be honest a happy medium. I know you guys jobs are difficult. I’m the first person that likes jokes and light moderation but the past month has been brutal. Constant complaining and consistent arguments have sucked the life out of this place. I’m referring to the LR thread of course. Banter is meant for all the nonsense. 

[LP08]

I really ruffled some feathers with my semi sarcastic GFS post....sorry!

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

We're always looking for the fluke. Anything can happen. A true snow lover never gives up. Anyone who say they're not is full of it. Problem is we have no indices on our side. The EPO is our only shot because the Atlantic is not budging.

There are different levels of giving up. I'm 100% done with tracking any lw pattern d10+. It's a complete waste of time and mental energy with no reward. I'll give it a quick 2 minute scan daily but that's about it.

A discete event outside of 5 days is another waste of time. Especially marginal or "weird" setups. I'm not saying I think there's no chance at snow because that's silly. 6-7 weeks of realistic climo are left. I'll jump back in if anything actually looks half decent at a timeframe where it's unlikely to significantly degrade. Hasn't happened this year so far except the one good northern tier event.

[RevWarReenactor]

It doesn't really feel like its been that warm. Above normal sure. But not super warm. I can remember years of  50's being pretty much normal was it 2011-2012?. . But at least in the NYC forum, this is the 9th warmest January on record. Apparently Atlanta and NYC also have had similar max and min temps in the month of January, which is kind of bizarre.

[WxUSAF]

Top 10 warmest on record isn’t that warm?

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Top 10 warmest on record isn’t that warm?

Not anymore. Sad but true.

[nw baltimore wx]

38 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

To be honest a happy medium. I know you guys jobs are difficult. I’m the first person that likes jokes and light moderation but the past month has been brutal. Constant complaining and consistent arguments have sucked the life out of this place. I’m referring to the LR thread of course. Banter is meant for all the nonsense. 

I am not disagreeing with you, but it happens every winter. 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It doesn't really feel like its been that warm. Above normal sure. But not super warm. I can remember years of  50's being pretty much normal was it 2011-2012?. . But at least in the NYC forum, this is the 9th warmest January on record. Apparently Atlanta and NYC also have had similar max and min temps in the month of January, which is kind of bizarre.

Your last argument made more sense 

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Top 10 warmest on record isn’t that warm?

Yea, and the entire eastern half of the conus has been roasting for ALL of jan. There's areas north of us with nearly +10 anoms for Jan. We aren't far behind.  @MN Transplant posted the national Jan anom chart just a day or 2 ago. I've never seen a worse one for Jan in my life. I'm sure there's been worse but I don't remember any off the top of my head. 

I've come to the conclusion that decoy is completely unable to learn anything from anyone. Period. If it's in his head it's 100% true and that's that. Narrow minded hardhead. It's not even an insult. It's just the truth. 

[aldie 22]

I thought this winter looked bad in July...I win

[psuhoffman]

I was reading some old storm threads from years ago and it struck me how many voices are missing. And I don’t think it’s just because things have sucked. I went back to other years that sucked and posters like HM/Ian/Matt/Ender/Wes and many others were contributing in discussions even when things weren’t doing amazing. And lately even when we do get a legit threat most of them barely even pop in at all. I wonder what happened and I really hope it’s not a trend. It’s been such a slow bleed that I hasn’t even realized it until I went back and saw what the threads years ago looked like. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Top 10 warmest on record isn’t that warm?

I said, it doesn't FEEL like its been that warm. I wasn't disputing the records.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Your last argument made more sense 

And here I thought I was making a more positive post. Would it be better if I whined about how warm it is too?

[RevWarReenactor]

Wes is such a nice guy, somehow me and him just clicked at the conference in 2009. Its a shame they don't post as much.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I said, it doesn't FEEL like its been that warm. I wasn't disputing the records.

Probably because everyone is getting used to nearly every month being 3-5F above normal.

[HighStakes]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Probably because everyone is getting used to nearly every month being 3-5F above normal.

I was think about this the other day. It seems like every month for the last several years are warmer than average except for March and April.  

[SnowtoRain]

24 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I was think about this the other day. It seems like every month for the last several years are warmer than average except for March and April.  

March through May have been seemingly damp and cooler, affecting planting and crop growth on Delmarva

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

People are really driving themselves crazy looking at each run with expectations. I think I’m less frustrated right now because I got the disappointment out of the way a month ago. Back when I made the now infamous “winters over” post I was depressed about it. Not really, but in a this sucks a wasted winter sense.  And I dealt with it. Then moved on. Now I don’t expect anything but suck. Every major global pattern driver is a train wreck. I watch just in case a fluke happens or a pattern change comes but I don’t expect anything to work out. So when it doesn’t I’m not distraught. 

See I have trouble turning it off that easily...I can give myself the lowest expectations in the world...but it doesn't make it any easier when things don't work out (and then I come on here and am reminded about just how bad it is, lol).

Adding to that...is my overall fear that this being our new normal. With the effects of any climate change still unknown...I am genuinely concerned (not to mention some mysterious whatever preventing us from having negative anything during the winter months) What we've been seeing is pretty much all we've seen for two winters...and with analogs being useless, it doesn't seem like anybody knows WHY the last two years have looked the way the have out in the Pacific and elsewhere.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

See I have trouble turning it off that easily...I can give myself the lowest expectations in the world...but it doesn't make it any easier when things don't work out (and then I come on here and am reminded about just how bad it is, lol).

Adding to that...is my overall fear that this being our new normal. With the effects of any climate change still unknown...I am genuinely concerned (not to mention some mysterious whatever preventing us from having negative anything during the winter months) What we've been seeing is pretty much all we've seen for two winters...and with analogs being useless, it doesn't seem like anybody knows WHY the last two years have looked the way the have out in the Pacific and elsewhere.

3 points to consider 

1.  I highly doubt we suddenly had a radical climate shift. We’ve had periods like this before. 1948-1953 was awful. There was an awful run in the mid 1970s. 1989-1992 was mostly crap and so was 1997-2002, 2007-2009, and 2011-2013.  Also look at a long term NAO chart and you will note it runs in cycles with multi year positive and negative phases. Also note there are typically positive cycles preceding solar minimums and negative cycles following them.  We are about to hit a solar minimum so it’s not crazy that we have had a multi year positive. It’s also not crazy that we had a rough patch for snow following what was an epic 3 year heater. If we go another 3/4 years without any winter  -NAO then I might start to worry. Right now this is still within historical norms.  

2.  I showed a while ago that we have had patterns like this before and how bad they all sucked. It’s not like this type of winter never happened before or we used to snow a lot in this pattern.  I do think DC is losing some marginal events and that what was a 6” year 50 years ago might be a 3” year now. So bad years are even worse maybe.  But I don’t thInk the odds of a really good year have changed appreciably. If we start to see what should be good patterns not working because it’s too warm that would be a red flag. This pattern always sucked. 

3.  What if your fear is right. What if we did flip and it’s never going to snow here much anymore?  Will getting upset every 6 hours when the gfs doesn’t show snow change anything or make it any better?

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What if your fear is right. What if we did flip and it’s never going to snow here much anymore?  Will getting upset every 6 hours when the gfs doesn’t show snow change anything or make it any better?

No, it won't but that doesn't change how I feel.  I have the exact same gnawing existential dread linked to climate change that Maestrobjwa seems to describe.  I wish I could consciously chose to not care, but I can't.  I am not made that way.

I'm not trying to "convert" you (not that you could be converted anyway).  Just expressing my feelings in a safe space with other people who love cold and snow.