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January Banter 2020


George BM
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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have no idea how some people have the time to make a detailed post, but who among us don't take some time during lunch or during a down period to read or make a quick post? How many people are locked into work from start to finish?

The elves who are driving the crappy Atlantic and the gremlins who are driving the horrible Pacific have been pretty locked in this year.

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15 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

In between what?

And I know this is like asking what 'is' is but what is your definition of "year"?

4) Dec 2018 - March 2019 - good

3) Dec 2017 - March 2018 - bad

2) Dec 2016 - March 2017 - bad

1) Dec 2015 - March 2016 - good

 

What am I missing?

 

If you want to hang your hat on last years January "snowstorm", then yes, we've had it "amazing".  I didn't know one isolated wet snowstorm that melts off a few days later makes up for 4 years of record breaking below normal snowfall.

I knew we had bad climo, but I didn't know we lived in South Carolina.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

 

If you want to hang your hat on last years January "snowstorm", then yes, we've had it "amazing".  I didn't know one isolated wet snowstorm that melts off a few days later makes up for 4 years of record breaking below normal snowfall.

I knew we had bad climo, but I didn't know we lived in South Carolina.

 

 

So you are now placing criteria on what you consider snow vs not snow? Guess that is one way to try to win an argument that you are losing.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

So you are now placing criteria on what you consider snow vs not snow? Guess that is one way to try to win an argument that you are losing.

What you can't change, no matter how hard you try is that, last years snowstorm INCLUDED, this has been a record breaking 4 year snowless period if DC ends the years with less than 2.4 inches....which is probably on track.

That is just stats.

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2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

What you can't change, no matter how hard you try is that, last years snowstorm INCLUDED, this has been a record breaking 4 year snowless period if DC ends the years with less than 2.4 inches....which is probably on track.

That is just stats.

So what is your argument again? Have no idea at this point because you have been down so many different tangents I couldn't keep up. The one thing I know is that when someone has to use the methods you have employed to try to win an argument then they are more then likely wrong. Cherry picking, deflecting, placing criteria, etc, etc, ect... are all indications that one is /or has lost the debate.

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Curious -- has anyone's love of MECS/HECS/BECS waned as they get older? I've lived in the area for 30+ years, and as many have documented , we've had some great snowstorms (ice storms, too) in the metro area in that timeframe. When snowstorms of any magnitude have NOT materialized after a week or two of tracking, I've had my own (non-public) meltdowns. I've always enjoyed the tracking and LOVE when the snow's coming down...but I'm definitely tiring of the aftermath (shoveling, melting, refreezing, etc.)

The last "huge" snowstorms that we had in 2016 (coincidentally, the year I turned 50) were awesome. But as one of the first times that the usual cleanup crew (the kids) were gone from the nest, cleaning up after those storms took it out of my wife and I, and I found myself thinking for the first time, "This is too much snow." Heresy.

Anyway. half of me loves to read all of the tracking and model discussion here each year...but if a real threat materializes, the other half of me now is like, "Ugh, can we please keep it to a manageable 2-4"?" Weird...and a little sad.

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Just now, vastateofmind said:

Curious -- has anyone's love of MECS/HECS/BECS waned as they get older? I've lived in the area for 30+ years, and as many have documented , we've had some great snowstorms (ice storms, too) in the metro area in that timeframe. When snowstorms of any magnitude have NOT materialized after a week or two of tracking, I've had my own (non-public) meltdowns. I've always enjoyed the tracking and LOVE when the snow's coming down...but I'm definitely tiring of the aftermath (shoveling, melting, refreezing, etc.)

The last "huge" snowstorms that we had in 2016 (coincidentally, the year I turned 50) were awesome. But as one of the first times that the usual cleanup crew (the kids) were gone from the nest, cleaning up after those storms took it out of my wife and I, and I found myself thinking for the first time, "This is too much snow." Heresy.

Anyway. half of me loves to read all of the tracking and model discussion here each year...but if a real threat materializes, the other half of me now is like, "Ugh, can we please keep it to a manageable 2-4"?" Weird...and a little sad.

i vote we kick you out :P 

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15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So what is your argument again? Have no idea at this point because you have been down so many different tangents I couldn't keep up. The one thing I know is that when someone has to use the methods you have employed to try to win an argument then they are more then likely wrong. Cherry picking, deflecting, placing criteria, etc, etc, ect... are all indications that one is /or has lost the debate.

I am just arguing against the people who say "this is normal" or "this is our climo" and use stuff that happened years ago to try and justify it. 8% of DC's climo is not their climo actually.

I should probably just stop. Its been talked out. I am just frustrated and I am frustrated that people on a weather forum that love snow, aren't equally as frustrated and are actually trying to say "normal climo here" which is simply statistically false.

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12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am just arguing against the people who say "this is normal" or "this is our climo" and use stuff that happened years ago to try and justify it. 8% of DC's climo is not their climo actually.

I should probably just stop. Its been talked out. I am just frustrated and I am frustrated that people on a weather forum that love snow, aren't equally as frustrated and are actually trying to say "normal climo here" which is simply statistically false.

Not going to get into this whole debate but I will point out one thing. I am not so sure I would be using DC as a data point for the general DC/Balt region when it comes to climo/not climo. The small localized climate induced by the special geography we see for DC is quite often not a good indicator of what the general DC/Balt region is actually experiencing on any given year in regards to snowfall. If you also include the fact that measurements at DC have been questioned time and again for quite a few years now pretty much takes DC out of any discussion when we are talking the region. If anything I would be using IAD instead of DC for that general area. 

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22 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Curious -- has anyone's love of MECS/HECS/BECS waned as they get older? I've lived in the area for 30+ years, and as many have documented , we've had some great snowstorms (ice storms, too) in the metro area in that timeframe. When snowstorms of any magnitude have NOT materialized after a week or two of tracking, I've had my own (non-public) meltdowns. I've always enjoyed the tracking and LOVE when the snow's coming down...but I'm definitely tiring of the aftermath (shoveling, melting, refreezing, etc.)

The last "huge" snowstorms that we had in 2016 (coincidentally, the year I turned 50) were awesome. But as one of the first times that the usual cleanup crew (the kids) were gone from the nest, cleaning up after those storms took it out of my wife and I, and I found myself thinking for the first time, "This is too much snow." Heresy.

Anyway. half of me loves to read all of the tracking and model discussion here each year...but if a real threat materializes, the other half of me now is like, "Ugh, can we please keep it to a manageable 2-4"?" Weird...and a little sad.

The only thing that has waned for me is believing anything modeled more than a few days away.  I used to hang on every model run that showed snow and got disappointed when it didn't materialize.

As for the actual snow, no.  I still love seeing it fall from 2" to 24".  i know the bigger ones will be a pain to shovel and it hurts more now to dig out than when I was younger(we are somewhat close in age).  I still walk in the now with my kids.  I will always walk with them while they are around.  When they are gone I will walk by myself if needed.

Snow is so special to me.  It is a rare thing given how 99% of the rest of the year doesn't snow.  To have a precipitation fall in just the right environment to create these little white corn flakes drift down and make everything so pretty is...well just unreal.  So any and all snow is welcome and I hope I never lose that "kid" part of me that wants to be out in it.

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21 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am just arguing against the people who say "this is normal" or "this is our climo" and use stuff that happened years ago to try and justify it. 8% of DC's climo is not their climo actually.

I should probably just stop. Its been talked out. I am just frustrated and I am frustrated that people on a weather forum that love snow, aren't equally as frustrated and are actually trying to say "normal climo here" which is simply statistically false.

You are one thick headed dude.

Hopefully PSU will stop engaging you. What a waste of his time.

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

The only thing that has waned for me is believing anything modeled more than a few days away.  I used to hang on every model run that showed snow and got disappointed when it didn't materialize.

As for the actual snow, no.  I still love seeing it fall from 2" to 24".  i know the bigger ones will be a pain to shovel and it hurts more now to dig out than when I was younger(we are somewhat close in age).  I still walk in the now with my kids.  I will always walk with them while they are around.  When they are gone I will walk by myself if needed.

Snow is so special to me.  It is a rare thing given how 99% of the rest of the year doesn't snow.  To have a precipitation fall in just the right environment to create these little white corn flakes drift down and make everything so pretty is...well just unreal.  So any and all snow is welcome and I hope I never lose that "kid" part of me that wants to be out in it.

Totally agree on the Jebwalks, especially during snowfall after sundown. There is something really special, too, about how much quieter it is when the snow is falling.

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13 minutes ago, H2O said:

The only thing that has waned for me is believing anything modeled more than a few days away.  I used to hang on every model run that showed snow and got disappointed when it didn't materialize.

As for the actual snow, no.  I still love seeing it fall from 2" to 24".  i know the bigger ones will be a pain to shovel and it hurts more now to dig out than when I was younger(we are somewhat close in age).  I still walk in the now with my kids.  I will always walk with them while they are around.  When they are gone I will walk by myself if needed.

Snow is so special to me.  It is a rare thing given how 99% of the rest of the year doesn't snow.  To have a precipitation fall in just the right environment to create these little white corn flakes drift down and make everything so pretty is...well just unreal.  So any and all snow is welcome and I hope I never lose that "kid" part of me that wants to be out in it.

We lost power during the January storm last year and we still couldn't keep our 4 year old in the house.  We went out after dusk as the last burst was coming through and walked around the neighborhood with every light off.  It was spooky, quiet, and awesome.  

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not going to get into this whole debate but I will point out one thing. I am not so sure I would be using DC as a data point for the general DC/Balt region when it comes to climo/not climo. The small localized climate induced by the special geography we see for DC is quite often not a good indicator of what the general DC/Balt region is actually experiencing on any given year in regards to snowfall. If you also include the fact that measurements at DC have been questioned time and again for quite a few years now pretty much takes DC out of any discussion when we are talking the region. If anything I would be using IAD instead of DC for that general area. 

I don't know, I looked at BWI's snowfall chart and it supports my argument even more.

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Winter makes us crazy

Sometimes what Bob does is smart, step away. 

I am OK, in the last couple years I no longer get very upset with warm weather in the winter.   

I still feel we get opportunities in March.   

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15 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't know, I looked at BWI's snowfall chart and it supports my argument even more.

In the last roughly 25 years we have seen 3 times where the 3 year snowfall has come in under the current 2016-2019 stretch of 36.7".

1996-99 with 33.7"

2006-09 with 28.6"

2010-13 with 24.2"

And one year that just missed.

1999-02 with 37.1"

And when you look beyond 96 we see many instances with 3 year stretches below or just above the current 3 year period.

 

Now if you want to argue for a 4 year stretch (2016-20) with 37" even though this winter has yet to end we see several periods that fall close to or exceed the futility.

49-53 with 32.8" (below)

72-76 with 42.0" (just above)

88-92 with 39.1" (just above)

And I would put good money on that we see at least enough snow before this winter ends to put this current stretch above 72-76 and 88-92.

 

Now the above screams climo for what to expect on our leaner years. It just does. there is nothing at all special with what we are currently seeing.

Now if you want to see an exercise in futility just take a gander at the stretch in the 70's (70-77) that I brought up a few days ago and you wanted to debate.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

We only see 80.5" through that whole 7 year stretch for a 11.5" yearly average. It doesn't get much worse then that though 49-56 makes a run at it with 84.1"

 

Now I am pretty much out of this debate after this post. It was getting old days ago and it is just stale and dead now.

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