January Banter 2020

[RevWarReenactor]

16 minutes ago, Mersky said:

It’s like a pity party in here. I imagine you young people won’t realize it but awful winters were the norm back in the 70’s and 80’s in these parts. Bad winters happen more than good ones in the mid Atlantic. Stop pretending like we live in Maine. 

LMAO! What are you on about?

For DC, of the 10 winters in the 80's

7 had double digit snowfall. One had over 30 inches. 4 Had over 20 inches.

 

We have .6 inches this year, no not 6 inches

….6

Trying to justify a historically terrible period is odd.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

OK, while I definitely appreciate music, I cannot read it all that much.  What piece is that from??

(ETA:  Of course!!  From the 1st movement of Beethoven's 5th Symphony?  Considering @stormtracker issued the "warning" comment, and looking at the musical notes now in my mind.)

Correct  Probably the most famous 4-note motif in the history of music, lol (Have you ever listened to the entire symphony? If you haven't...DO IT!!! Haha You will discover just how many different ways he incorporates that same

"short-short-short-looooong" pattern throughout the whole work!

[Scraff]

I can’t wait! I’m pumped!! In just a few more years I can start planting palm trees in Elkridge. Go Global Warming Go! Then I’m positive with my luck (a day later) we’ll start a new ice age, dinosaurs will make a comeback, and those damn bastards will starting eating my precious coconuts. Son of a....

 

....I’ll seek help this afternoon. I promise.

 

[Baltimorewx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i dont disagree about the borderline hype -- but if you know Tony Pann, which many who follow him do, they know he is a weenie. #snowtrain 

Yeah, I just dont remember him being like that a few years back. I used to like him and think he was good. Im sure hes a great person, but his "weenie-ism" is certainly getting in the way of making good forecasts. Of course its different on air

[stormtracker]

8 hours ago, uncletim said:

This man might have successfully bribed an admin with a simple post.

[mappy]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, I just dont remember him being like that a few years back. I used to like him and think he was good. Im sure hes a great person, but his "weenie-ism" is certainly getting in the way of making good forecasts. Of course its different on air

moved this to banter

I haven no problem with Tony -- he's a weenie. Plain and simple. If you understand that about him, it makes it easier to digest. You know he is biased. He's good friends with Berk, which explains things too. 

Back in 2016 Tony wasn't all about the higher snow amounts during the blizzard. He was called out for it and blocked people @North Balti Zen one of them. So it goes both ways, he just a weenie. 

With that said, I'd still meet the guy and hang out with him if given the chance. 

[RevWarReenactor]

22 minutes ago, Mersky said:

They happen. Have always happened. Philly’s least snow year was 1972-73. The early 70’s were an awful period for snow. 82-83 had one big storm or it would have been awful. The problem with most of you is you have been spoiled by big storms since the mid 1990’s. 

I agree that some people overexaggerate our climo.

But you are doing the opposite. This isn't Florida bro. Sure "it happens" like once every 30 years. This is a record breaking four year snowless stretch. You can't in any way shape or form justify this as normal anymore than the weenies can justify 20-30 inch seasons as normal.

BTW, how is your call for a colder/snowier pattern working out? I seem to remember you attacking PSU for his negative outlook on this winter, which is now presenting itself perfectly.

 

[North Balti Zen]

My read is that Pann plays the part of a contrarian. He decided “overhyped” as 2016 storm was locking in and refused to waver even as it unfolded. Hence my trolling him and getting blocked. Now he seems to look for snow in impossible setups - again, apparently to be contrarian.

problem with that disingenuous approach is it is impossible to take him seriously.

[mappy]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

My read is that Pann plays the part of a contrarian. He decided “overhyped” as 2016 storm was locking in and refused to waver even as it unfolded. Hence my trolling him and getting blocked. Now he seems to look for snow in impossible setups - again, apparently to be contrarian.

problem with that disingenuous approach is it is impossible to take him seriously.

that was the point i was trying to make (thank you). its easier to just roll with him when you know how he is. I now playfully troll him on twitter when he posts about the #snowtrain coming. 

[HighStakes]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

moved this to banter

I haven no problem with Tony -- he's a weenie. Plain and simple. If you understand that about him, it makes it easier to digest. You know he is biased. He's good friends with Berk, which explains things too. 

Back in 2016 Tony wasn't all about the higher snow amounts during the blizzard. He was called out for it and blocked people @North Balti Zen one of them. So it goes both ways, he just a weenie. 

With that said, I'd still meet the guy and hang out with him if given the chance. 

I think he also went conservative on the first Feb. storm in 2010. He was still only calling for 10-20 inches right up until when it started snowing when everyone else was going 2 feet plus.

 

 

[mappy]

Just now, HighStakes said:

I think he also went conservative on the first Feb. storm in 2010. He was still only calling for 10-20 inches right up until when it started snowing when everyone else was going 2 feet plus.

 

 

gods i didn't pay enough attention back then. didn't even join eastern until after that winter lol but doesn't surprise me that he acted like that. he's one extreme or the other, no real happy middle. 

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

gods i didn't pay enough attention back then. didn't even join eastern until after that winter lol but doesn't surprise me that he acted like that. he's one extreme or the other, no real happy middle. 

I remember when he started on WBAL back in the early 90's. Then he left for a good while before returning. Berke was at WBAL as well during Pann's first stint with them. I guess that's how they got friendly. Tom T has been there 30 years and I remember when he started. Where did the years go lol.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

First off I am 68 years old so please don’t call me bro. Leave that for any of your friends you might have which by your posting style I doubt you have 

secondly I hope you get snow soon because you seem unhinged. Bad winters happen bro, suck it up buttercup. If you can’t, move north 
 

You just can’t help yourself. 

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The "this is normal" posts in the LR thread are annoying. Nope having only .6 inches of snow to show for Dec and January is not normal. Nor is having only 8% of our climo for this time period. People are nuts. Sure on any given day or any given week, chances of a snowstorm are not high. But Going prime climo with northing to show for it, is not ordinary.

Do you know what is also really annoying??? Hope I don't have to spell it out for you.

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I remember when he started on WBAL back in the early 90's. Then he left for a good while before returning. Berke was at WBAL as well during Pann's first stint with them. I guess that's how they got friendly. Tom T has been there 30 years and I remember when he started. Where did the years go lol.

the years go by so fast! and its funny, Ava and I chatted about dynamics of working in the media when we had lunch earlier this month. There are def politics involved.

[mappy]

Just now, Mersky said:

Do you work? 

nah, none of us do. welcome to the club! 

[mappy]

Just now, Mersky said:

I wonder sometimes. 

obviously you don't work so you should fit right in. 

[mappy]

Just now, Mersky said:

Retired. 

aren't we all. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

This whole “four year snowless record” stuff is getting old fast.

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor  I hear all your arguments.  I am not saying you are "wrong" I am just offering another perspective.  Basically I am NOT saying this is normal.  What I am saying is there is no such thing as a "normal" snowfall winter here.  Our climo is to have wildly divergent winter patterns...the majority of the time that pattern is SUCKY for snow...and we are too far south.  If you average all the patterns together...we are south of the mean location of the rain/snow line.  Add in that sometimes when we do get the right combo to suppress the jet near us...we don't always get a storm.  It could go south of us...or out to sea.  So the fact is we go long long stretches without any snow at all or not very much.  And then we get periods with a lot...either a whole season like 1996 or 2014 or an epic period within a season like 2000.  What you call "normal" is just both the good and bad periods averaged together.  But the reality is we don't have a "normal" winter.  We have a mix of good and bad and everything in between...but if we tried to categorize what our normal breakdown is its about 25% good, 25% mediocre, 50% bad.  That is "normal".  So what I am saying is to have a year like this...or a string of them, is normal in the longer sense.  We had several good years in the last 10...but they happened to come in a string of them together...and now we are getting a string of bad ones together...that is just how it works sometimes.  I am looking at it on a longer term scale than you.  For the last 10 years we are actually running above normal on snow.  We are very likely to get another big year in the next few.  That is not just playing the odds...given we are hitting solar minimum soon the odds are we start getting some blocking soon and that drastically increases our chances of a big year.  The years leading up to a solar minimum tend to have a +NAO and that stacks the odds for bad years...so in a way we are kind of seeing that play out.  In that way it is "normal".  I am simply saying there is no such thing as "normal" not that this is "normal" in the shorter scale.  In the longer scale...having runs of good and bad winters is our normal climo.  You have to step back and see the big picture.  I didnt hear people complaining during 2014 and 2015 that all that snow wasn't normal.  I dont remember people complaining during the 2016 HECS that all that snow wasnt normal.  If all we ever had was years like 2014 and then "normal" years...our average would be way higher than it is.

 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

No 

eh, unemployed, retired... whatever. 

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor wrt location... its not fair to jump around because while DC did better than you with last winter...you did way better than DC in 2018.  So its a trade off...if you want to use coop sites around you to compare your results to your local climo we can do that...but we can't jump around selectively year to year from location to location.  For the record though...that January storm was a cold storm, it wasnt a wet snow slush that didnt stick to roads event that you keep claiming.  A lot of the snow fell overnight when it was in the 20s in DC.  The next day the high was only 32 degrees.  You must be thinking of a different event.  

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Do you work?  Does your boss pay you to post during the day on here?? 

Just tell me when the passive aggressive "who me" part of this repeat episode gets here...

or phase 8 of the MJO... where did all your CFS charts go I was enjoying those daily updates 

[ers-wxman1]

Geez Louise! This forum is even making me look like a positive person. It’s disappointing for sure, but it’s SNOW!! It falls, it sticks, it melts. Just had a good friends father rushed to the ER for 5 hour open heart surgery for aortic dissection. Nearly lost him on the table. There are greater tragedies in life. 

[mappy]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Geez Louise! This forum is even making me look like a positive person. It’s disappointing for sure, but it’s SNOW!! It falls, it sticks, it melts. Just had a good friends father rushed to the ER for 5 hour open heart surgery for aortic dissection. Nearly lost him on the table. There are greater tragedies in life. 

like snowless winters

(sorry about your friends dad)

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Geez Louise! This forum is even making me look like a positive person. It’s disappointing for sure, but it’s SNOW!! It falls, it sticks, it melts. Just had a good friends father rushed to the ER for 5 hour open heart surgery for aortic dissection. Nearly lost him on the table. There are greater tragedies in life. 

My goodness...glad to hear that he survivex! And you're right...there are indeed greater worries in life. Why we get like this on here is baffling...but my thinking of it is: sometimes, we look to snow as the "happiness". The exciting thing to look forward to...And while enjoying snow is what we all do here, the problem comes in wrapping up that "joy" in getting snow--instead of letting ourselves be fulfilled by other, much more dependable things (and outside of winter, I'm sure we find them, lol). But during winter, it's like...."ah, this is gonna make me happy!" and ya start following every model run looking for a promise of "joy" in the immediate future. So, when it doesn't come...folks can be depressing on here since it can feel like something is being stolen or away, or happiness denied. And it doesn't matter how realistic the chances are of a particular event...no snow can still be depressing even if you expect it. But it's a flawed thought pattern, though...

 

(A bit of a ramble, but I suppose this is just an observation of my own psychology and other's, lol)

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

So you don’t work. 

i already told you, none of us work. 

[Baltimorewx]

Work? Aint nobody got time for dat

[caviman2201]

[North Balti Zen]

10 minutes ago, Mersky said:

So you don’t work. 

Bro. Dude. Stop.