January Banter 2020

[RevWarReenactor]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor  I also think one issue is with HOW our snow typically comes...and it simply doesn't jive with how you want it to come.  But its the reality.  

Our snowiest weeks statistically are between January 20th and March 15th.  And it's not even close...the odds of snow the first 15 days of March are DOUBLE the odds of snow the first half of January even...and 3 times higher than the odds of snow the second half of December!  But you pretty much toss any snow we get after Feb 20th because of "sun angle" and melting and all that jazz.  And yea...snow in later Feb and Mar will likely melt fast and have trouble sticking to roads and all that.  You are right.  that is what late snow is like...but you are tossing like 30% of our snowfall when you do that.  If you break the winter up into chunks...Feb 15-Mar15 would be the second snowiest part of winter behind Jan 15-Feb 15 and its not even close...way way way snowier than anything before Jan 15th.  So the issue is a LOT of our snow comes late...and that is our normal climo...and you dont like that.  I get the feeling you want a lot of snow to come in December and early January...and get frustrated every year when we get to mid january with crappy results...but the truth is that is our normal climo.  The odds of 3" of snow the first half of December is ONLY 13%.  The odds the second half of Dec are even worse...only 6%!. The odds of 3" of snow between Jan 1-15th and only...13%.  They go way way up after that and stay high until mid March...but you are already frustrated by the time our chances of snow increase late January every year.  That is part of this imo...

Nah, my expectation of snow is usually after December 31st. Anything prior to a bonus. Once we start doing the January shutouts and 15 day outlooks of nothing on the horizon, then its getting high  time to start tracking the spring. Which is about where we are headed. Unless you think otherwise....if you see a pattern change, where is it? Where do you see us reversing course on this bleak winter?

I find it kind of hard to fathom that the first 15 days of March are snowier than the first 15 days of January. DC averages 1.3 inches of snow in March and 5.6 in January. Are you saying of the 5.6 that falls in January 4.3 of it falls after 15 January?

I don't start tossing the season until March 1st. I think late Feb can still be decent.

[H2O]

y'all are troopers to give mdecoy all these responses.  It won't matter tho.  His mind is made up.

[RevWarReenactor]

Just now, H2O said:

y'all are troopers to give mdecoy all these responses.  It won't matter tho.  His mind is made up.

I am just convinced PSU likes to downplay snowfall norms. I am pretty sure others secretly agree. Its not a big deal.....but at a certain point we have to admit, this is not "normal", we are not "due for a bad year".

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Was that an all female band?  

Lol. Icon - Right Between The Eyes. Go listen to that one. Definitely not female. It’s does straight up rock if hair metal was your thing. 

 

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am just convinced PSU likes to downplay snowfall norms. I am pretty sure others secretly agree. Its not a big deal.....but at a certain point we have to admit, this is not "normal", we are not "due for a bad year".

So you want all of us to think the way you do?  Like I said, your mind is made up.  

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Lol. Icon - Right Between The Eyes. Go listen to that one. Definitely not female. It’s does straight up rock if hair metal was your thing. 

 

I listened to and was a fan of Loudness so I know about hair metal

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

But its still a historically below average 4 year period. Let me ask you a question, how many years would have to go by where we get historically low snowfall for you to stop reaching back to snowy periods to justify it?

What if next year DC gets 4 inches total, and the following year they get 2 inches. At what point will you admit that this is well below normal?

If it was 32 degrees the day of the storm, that is a warm snowstorm. Its on the verge of white rain actually. I know it was warm because in Delaware there was little if any street stickage. You are correct that its not a warm day relative to average, but it was a warm storm. I don't see how you can stick to DC averages like glue in regards to warm talk, but can't admit below averages when it comes to snowfall. DC has had .6 inches of snow so far, they average for this time of year is..... 7 inches.

So DC only has 8% of what they should normally expect. This isn't normal.

Yes it has been below avg...I said you are exaggerating not that there is no truth...but you go from 0 to 60 with nothing in between ever.  

It's hard to answer how long because we just had an above average snowfall year LAST YEAR...and you seem to be tossing that aside like nothing.  We recently had a 7 year stretch of below avg snowfall every year from 2004 to 2009.  We had 6 year stretches from 1997 to 2002 and 1990 to 1995.  So we have a LONG way to go to get to that level.  As for your "4 year" thing... since this winter isn't over yet that is hypothetical only.  If we get no snow at all this year...then yes this will be the lowest 4 year snowfall period ever.  It means exactly what it means.  But all that is showing is how our climo has changed.  I think its a real trend that DC has a harder time fighting and scrumming its way to a decent snowfall total in "bad" years.  The odds of us getting a snowy winter have not gone down...we still get a snowy winter on average 25% of the time.  The difference is in the non snowy years...DC is more likely to end up with some god awful total like 3-5" than 50 years ago when DC would usually scrap its way to 10" or so even in a bad year.  So because of that...when you measure a modern period that doesn't include one of those BIG 25% years...it is likely to be the "worst" ever because our snowfall is going down in non good years.  50 years ago a bad snow year in DC was 8" and today that same pattern would likely produce 3" because of the warmer base state today and the increased urban heat island effect.  A lot of storms that would help DC get some snow in a bad year is just rain now.  But that isnt the weather hating on you...its just our new normal.  

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I completely missed that man. 7th snowiest?

yea people can take it however they want...but last year with 16.9" DC had its 7th snowiest winter in the last 30 years.  

[aldie 22]

Hey...at least he's funny right?

[H2O]

Trying to have it both ways

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea people can take it however they want...but last year with 16.9" DC had its 7th snowiest winter in the last 30 years.  

Not but one way you can take it.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not but one way you can take it.

last year was 09-10 compared to this winter

[yoda]

I thought banter went in the banter thread... I guess not anymore.  @H2O and @mappy -- sorry you two have to deal with all that crap in the main thread... no wonder we lose good posters and have the ones we still have just not post

[H2O]

Hey, man.  Just relax!  Take the sticks out and just free for all!!  People have spoken

[mappy]

Just now, yoda said:

I thought banter went in the banter thread... I guess not anymore.  @H2O and @mappy -- sorry you two have to deal with all that crap in the main thread... no wonder we lose good posters and have the ones we still have just not post

it does. the weenies are taking over and unfortunately, other than hiding posts, i cant do much else. i would move them all to banter if i could. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I thought banter went in the banter thread... I guess not anymore.  @H2O and @mappy -- sorry you two have to deal with all that crap in the main thread... no wonder we lose good posters and have the ones we still have just not post

who have we lost? we only lose people when there is no winter pattern to speak of...which there isnt

[yoda]

Just now, mappy said:

it does. the weenies are taking over and unfortunately, other than hiding posts, i cant do much else. i would move them all to banter if i could. 

I know, and I don't blame you.  You are doing the best you can.  

[mappy]

Just now, yoda said:

I know, and I don't blame you.  You are doing the best you can.  

it would be really great if people could self moderate and understand that telling a mod a stick is up her ass isn't going to get you very far. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

who have we lost? we only lose people when there is no winter pattern to speak of...which there isnt

Ian, Zwyts, Wes, Bob Chill (see his posts from last winter); ers-wxmann posts basically only when there is a snow chance now... there's others that I can't think of off the top of my head right now

[Ji]

Just now, yoda said:

Ian, Zwyts, Wes, Bob Chill (see his posts from last winter); ers-wxmann posts basically only when there is a snow chance now... there's others that I can't think of off the top of my head right now

they all come back when there is snow

[H2O]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

it would be really great if people could self moderate and understand that telling a mod a stick is up her ass isn't going to get you very far. 

Thats like asking a fat person to lay off the buffet.  Or not spend hours clearing a farm.

[H2O]

Just now, Ji said:

they all come back when there is snow

not really.  a post once in a while isn't the same.  And having their input during the in-between times would be better than yours

[aldie 22]

It's all chaos like up in here...somehow it will be my fault because mattie g said

[FXW176]

Expecting perfection
Leaves a lot to ignore
When the past is the present
And the future's no more
When every tomorrow
Is the same as before

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

not really.  a post once in a while isn't the same.  And having their input during the in-between times would be better than yours

first time we've ever agreed.........the bold part at least

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

it does. the weenies are taking over and unfortunately, other than hiding posts, i cant do much else. i would move them all to banter if i could. 

Lunatics running the asylum, it seems..."Weenies Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest"? ;  )

I admit I'm as weenie as anyone when it comes to snow, following the storms is fun (though frustrating at the same time, too).  But I try to keep the frustration mostly to myself and out of the medium range and storm related threads, when things don't work out.  Light banter maybe sometimes in there, but I've tried to keep most stuff in the Banter forum or the Panic Room for fun.  I'm sure several others are the same, and I know you're not aiming that comment at them or me...but you're right.  And thanks to you and other mods for at least trying to keep it somewhat under control.  The past couple of years it has gotten really insufferable at times in the main discussion areas!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Nah, my expectation of snow is usually after December 31st. Anything prior to a bonus. Once we start doing the January shutouts and 15 day outlooks of nothing on the horizon, then its getting high  time to start tracking the spring. Which is about where we are headed. Unless you think otherwise....if you see a pattern change, where is it? Where do you see us reversing course on this bleak winter?

I find it kind of hard to fathom that the first 15 days of March are snowier than the first 15 days of January. DC averages 1.3 inches of snow in March and 5.6 in January. Are you saying of the 5.6 that falls in January 4.3 of it falls after 15 January?

I don't start tossing the season until March 1st. I think late Feb can still be decent.

In the last 30 years DC has had 3" or more of snow between March 1-15th 23% of the time

DC has had 3" or more of snow between Jan 1-15th 13% of the time.  Those are just facts.  

Those averages are going to change...they do not YET take into account the last 10 years...and they still factor in the 1980's...When the 80s come off the books and the 2010s go on at the end of this year March will become snowier.  We had a historically bad run in March during the last 30 year climo period.  Additionally because the last week of January is VERY snowy and the second half of March is NOT...it skews the month of January snowier than March as a whole month.  But the first half of March is snowier than the first half of January in terms of the odds of getting snow.  Additionally there were some HUGE storms in January like 1996 that skew the "average" but that has nothing to do with the odds of simply getting a snowstorm.  Truth is we have a higher chance of getting a snow in early march than early january according to recent results.  

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

In the last 30 years DC has had 3" or more of snow between March 1-15th 23% of the time 

 

Yeah...the last 5-6 Marches in particular have highlighted this!

[87storms]

it seems like we're in the "let's see if reverse psychology will make it snow" portion of our snow drought.

 

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor

You also were asking earlier about the odds for this year...

There have been 12 prior years where DC entered February with 1" or less of snow.  In those years DC recieved these totals the rest of winter.  0, 10.7, 1.7, .1, 8.9, 24.3, 3.1, 4, 7, 2.8, 28.6, 6.5.  The mean of those years is 8.2" and the median is 5.8".  Only 25% of those years did DC not get the 2.4" it needs to avoid your scenario so odds are against that.

There have been 23 years where DC had 2" or less going into Feb.  The mean of those years was 7.8" and median 6.5".  Only 26% of the time they didnt get the 2.4" the rest of the way.

There have been a few fluke times where DC got slammed after going into February in a similar situation as now.  But odds say the most likely result is DC gets somewhere between 4-9" the rest of the way...which will put this year into the just plain typically bad category but avoid the "worst snow period ever" thing you are using.