mappy Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't disagree with your points... and I would also recommend anyone who gets emotionally invested (a lot of people) in day 10 forecasts should take a break... but for me personally I can look at long range...knowing full well how low probability things are, analyze the permutations of where the pattern could be going based on the limited NWP clues and seasonal tendencies, without it driving me crazy when particular results I want do not happen. But for most who cannot do that...avoiding long range is probably a good idea. well yeah, you are an exception. you can look at LR and know whats up without getting overly emotional about it. its the others (cough, Ji) that throw fits because a 10 day pattern didn't work out. its why i dont follow it. i get too invested in 5day threats, couldn't imagine chasing 10 day pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Facts. But sit back and enjoy the -NAO start to build in the extended. You can actually see it on the LR data. Fits with Tom and a few others' thinking ie blocky Feb and backloaded. Maybe...but what you are seeing on the 300 hour guidance is not really a true -NAO or NAM state flip. It's the ridge under the TPV getting caught in a sqeeze play between the shifting AK vortex and the TPV over and north of Greenland. I do not see the wave breaking necessary to really force a permanent NAM state change from that...as of yet. The feature you are seeing isnt bad...and if the AK vortex does drop into central North America that is good... but I am not as hopeful that what your seeing day 15 is the permanent NAM state flip we need. I do think there is a chance that does happen, but its likely later in Feb or March if at all. We kind of have a mix of signals...we talked about in the fall how there are so many conflicting signals...but the combinations isnt going our way. We wondered how it would play out...and we did get a mix of some nino and nina like pattern features. Problem is the ones that ended up dominant were the worse of both worlds. We got the ridge near Hawaii and +NAM associated with a nina, and we got some central Canada ridging associated with a nino, but that combination isnt really going to cut it. Often in a nina base state winter we do see a more favorable NAM state phase change towards the end. My feeling is that the shortening wavelengths aid in heat transport and wave breaks attacking and disrupting the stable PV and make it more possible to get some blocking later. Shorter wavelengths can also make it more possible to get a fluke storm without help up top. So there is some support to the idea that the current mess we are in could change but that typically doesn't happen until later in Feb or even more common in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe...but what you are seeing on the 300 hour guidance is not really a true -NAO or NAM state flip. It's the ridge under the TPV getting caught in a sqeeze play between the shifting AK vortex and the TPV over and north of Greenland. I do not see the wave breaking necessary to really force a permanent NAM state change from that...as of yet. The feature you are seeing isnt bad...and if the AK vortex does drop into central North America that is good... but I am not as hopeful that what your seeing day 15 is the permanent NAM state flip we need. I do think there is a chance that does happen, but its likely later in Feb or March if at all. We kind of have a mix of signals...we talked about in the fall how there are so many conflicting signals...but the combinations isnt going our way. We wondered how it would play out...and we did get a mix of some nino and nina like pattern features. Problem is the ones that ended up dominant were the worse of both worlds. We got the ridge near Hawaii and +NAM associated with a nina, and we got some central Canada ridging associated with a nino, but that combination isnt really going to cut it. Often in a nina base state winter we do see a more favorable NAM state phase change towards the end. My feeling is that the shortening wavelengths aid in heat transport and wave breaks attacking and disrupting the stable PV and make it more possible to get some blocking later. Shorter wavelengths can also make it more possible to get a fluke storm without help up top. So there is some support to the idea that the current mess we are in could change but that typically doesn't happen until later in Feb or even more common in March. Just a heads up I never said this would be a permanent feature. Brief window for now where my thinking is Feb 7-14 roughly. Maybe as u said later on we can lock it in for a period but its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: JB cant ever admit defeat...he is taking credit from some of cold now that the southeast is seeing He has become a total joke. He was always a hype machine and biased cold/snowy but his discussions and videos used to at least be an interesting and often educational experience. He would discuss different looks and options. Now all he does is release propaganda where he cherry picks one run that supports his predictions or rants about his anti climate change agenda. And he has become even more ridiculous in the lengths he will go to support his forecast. For example using a year like 1978 when we got a cold period during a warm mjo rotation to justify his ideas. He is either crazy if he really doesn't see the difference between a season with a cold base state, canonical nino, weak PV...and what we have now. Using weak warm MJO waves in very cold winters is NOT a comp to seeing a super charged warm phase MJO wave in an already warm background state. So he has either lost it...or he is flat out lying to everyone to support a forecast he knows is going to bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Literally the only one who still reads JB is Ji. No one even cares anymore about what JB says cause he is always wrong. Only the stupid still bother to follow him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I was a big JB fan in the 2003-2004 days. I even met him at one of his little get togethers in December 2003. He asked me what school I went to and I said "Rutgers" but I paused because I was nervous and he gave me a look like he didn't believe me. But I got my photo with him which everyone at wright weather made fun of. I can't believe that was 17 years ago. How the heck did that happen? Accuweather went premium and I signed up a few times, but never felt like it was worth the price and then my interest faded off. I remember Jamie O talking about accuweathers true thoughts on all the JB bashing that went on at Easternwx, he reveled that at a GTG but I won't repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Apparently the coronavirus has made its way to the states...Im pretty sure Ive had that virus one summer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Apparently the coronavirus has made its way to the states...Im pretty sure Ive had that virus one summer.. You probably won't make any friends with that virus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Looking back at previous year NOHRSC Snowfall season maps to this date, we really aren't that far behind our typical climo for most years. Maybe everyone already knows this, but the data show the vast majority of our snow falls after today's date. Maybe others can fill in whether in previous years, by this time we could see a near term workable pattern or not, but at least its a small reason to still be optimistic this 'early'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I’m gonna ignore all other evidence and assume numbers 4/5 know what’s up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m gonna ignore all other evidence and assume numbers 4/5 know what’s up The heck is that from? Lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: The heck is that from? Lolol euro ensembles... thing is...the 1-3" of snow it has in our NW regions is not from a lot of small hits...its from a couple massive ones but with the vast majority showing nothing. So basically there is a very slim chance that if everything went exactly right...they do that by having a perfect H5 track and then bombing a slow moving coastal and deforming the hell out of us...how often does that actually happen here? then maybe we get a big storm...but the high probability is just a rainstorm pretty much everywhere except the highest elevations or north of our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it’s close day 10 Close indeed. Just get a slightly stronger push of warm and humid air and it could be a nice high shear/low cape convective event for some. Still have over a week for it to trend better..... or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: euro ensembles... thing is...the 1-3" of snow it has in our NW regions is not from a lot of small hits...its from a couple massive ones but with the vast majority showing nothing. So basically there is a very slim chance that if everything went exactly right...they do that by having a perfect H5 track and then bombing a slow moving coastal and deforming the hell out of us...how often does that actually happen here? then maybe we get a big storm...but the high probability is just a rainstorm pretty much everywhere except the highest elevations or north of our region. And as slim as the chance is, (and I'm kicking myself for still keeping a tiny drop of hope for this thing, lol), I'm wondering if we wouldn't see that the models pickup on that until like...late tomorrow (or Thursday) at the earliest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Should be able to start planting crops by early-february. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Should be able to start planting crops by early-february. Naa.. because April will cold and rainy and everything with rot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 At least in my recent travels, I have seen some "shallow" winter. Dec 17-20th out in the high spots near Boonsboro then up into the Catoctins. A crusty inch with plenty of ice on top. My trip to Lancaster and points north featured plenty of cold, some light sleet/snow coverings and lots of small glaciated piles and icy patches. I stopped at Terrapin on my way home today and did a brisk walk, and the creeks/inland waters were iced over. Nothing on the bay ofc. You take what you can get in a crap winter. Still enjoyable being out in the cold, even if it is fleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Everytime I see Westendsnowguy post I think of the Pet Shop Boys song ...West End Girls When I see his posts what usually comes to mind is how damn useless they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: euro ensembles... thing is...the 1-3" of snow it has in our NW regions is not from a lot of small hits...its from a couple massive ones but with the vast majority showing nothing. So basically there is a very slim chance that if everything went exactly right...they do that by having a perfect H5 track and then bombing a slow moving coastal and deforming the hell out of us...how often does that actually happen here? then maybe we get a big storm...but the high probability is just a rainstorm pretty much everywhere except the highest elevations or north of our region. And that’s why the snowfall mean maps are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just a thought but I wonder if the other several 3-6 inch plus hits that are literally 40 to 75 miles due north of us have us in the deform band ...but the ensemble member has us a degree or so too warm at the surface thus...its rain depicted but in reality it coulddddd be fat pasties falling because its heavy rates and dynamics Maybe it looks close for our area but honestly I’m not invested enough to dig that deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: When I see his posts what usually comes to mind is how damn useless they are. Your posts are full of useful info, what is your region at 10"+ this season....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Gfs delivers lol... I might drink a couple cold ones tonight to my 5 inches of digital snow Is losetoa6 lose to a six seed in the NCAA tournament? just curious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: Your posts are full of useful info, what is your region at 10"+ this season....... Not trying to be mean dude, and Psu's response pretty much nailed it. "Over the top" analysis is not intended to, and cannot possibly, yield anything. You don't make many posts. Try harder when you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not trying to be mean dude, and Psu's response pretty much nailed it. "Over the top" analysis is not intended to, and cannot possibly, yield anything. You don't make many posts. Try harder when you do. When there is something to post about I will......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 45 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: When there is something to post about I will......... Okay....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: A seasoned veteran of your caliber making a mistake like this. "...of your caliber" ---- you must have me confused with someone who actually knows what their talking about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 At this point I am content with a chase or two more in upstate NY/Vermont to get my snow and rooting for DC to come in under 3 inches for the season. Then they will officially have the worst 4 year stretch of snow since recording keeping began and we can no longer say "This is normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Westendsnowguy said: When there is something to post about I will......... something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 May somebody please point me in the direction of a place where I may find past snowfall amounts? Each time I’ve searched I’ve only found record amounts, but I want everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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