HighStakes Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s provably going to at least be close. The look is close enough to a lot of our wet snow in a warm pattern “look” but the antecedent airmass might be just a bit too atrocious for low elevations. This might end up like some of those 1998 storms that clobbered higher elevations. My first thought was 1998 when this thing started looking like a close call. I don't think the temps will as bad as the storms in 1998 with this one. I know the antecedent airmass were dealing is not good but in 1998 they were really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Only 10 more runs til the GFS dumps on Raleigh and we're stuck w cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: My first thought was 1998 when this thing started looking like a close call. I don't think the temps will as bad as the storms in 1998 with this one. I know the antecedent airmass were dealing is not good but in 1998 they were really bad. maybe a touch better...but not quite as good as some of the snowy outcome "Hudson Bay Ridge" analogs either...those are also generally warm pattern storms also...but looking through most of those examples that worked the airmass ahead wasn't quite as torched as this one...of course the guidance is trending cooler so if that continues by the time the storm comes maybe it will look more like the better examples. A compromise might work for our area...we had a little bit of snow with some of those 1998 storms but we didn't quite have the elevation to get really thumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 This is the storm y’all are referring to Sorry no direct link to the storm. This is from NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe a touch better...but not quite as good as some of the snowy outcome "Hudson Bay Ridge" analogs either...those are also generally warm pattern storms also...but looking through most of those examples that worked the airmass ahead wasn't quite as torched as this one...of course the guidance is trending cooler so if that continues by the time the storm comes maybe it will look more like the better examples. A compromise might work for our area...we had a little bit of snow with some of those 1998 storms but we didn't quite have the elevation to get really thumped. It also helped to be located more west with those 98 storms which could be the case this weekend also. If we lived in the Catoctins or higher elevations in Washington county I would feel pretty good. As it stands now we're definitely in the game and the cities have a puncher's chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @Maestrobjwa you made a post the other day saying maybe we will get one huge fluke snowstorm like 2016, and I know you have mentioned 2006 the same way...only neither of those was a "fluke". 2016 had an excellent h5 pattern for 6 weeks in the core of that winter... and IMO it was bad luck that we didn't score more than one significant snowfall. I am NOT saying we should have had 2 storms like that HECS but if you showed me this look and said that would be the pattern for the 6 snowiest weeks of winter I probably would have guessed we would have got more than 1 significant snowfall. But we got very unlucky...we wasted a perfect track coastal storm before the HECS because temps were slightly too warm. Then another threat got suppressed and squashed...then one WAA wave went just south of DC and another storm went just north and there was a perfect upper low early Feb where the boundary layer was just too warm, my area got 8" and DC was cold rain. But if anything the fluke was that DC only got one snowstorm...NOT that they did get one snowstorm. 2006 was similar...the period from Mid December to Mid January was awful...but one of the best winter blocking periods of the last 20 years set in around Jan 25 and continued the rest of winter. THe nina pattern in the pac is evident with that ridge and the lack of an STJ...those features limited the potential here and is part of the reason why we only got one big snowstorm...but the fact that from Jan 25 to the rest of winter looked like that, with that blocking...and we only managed one snowfall of any significance is incredibly bad luck. Given the lack of STJ I don't think expecting multiple MECS level snows was likely but we probably should have had another minor to medium level event or two given that look for so long. My point is not that we wont get a big snowstorm...just that we don't usually "luck" our way to a 12" plus snowstorm in a crap pattern. Those level storms in the cities almost always go along with a favorable pattern (almost always blocking). We can "luck" our way to a 3-6" event in a crap pattern SOMETIMES... but once you get to 8" plus events in DC its almost always with a pretty favorable pattern. Sometimes there is a year where we only got one big storm...but usually that is because either bad luck and it should have been more...or a year like 2000 where we spent most of the year in a crap look but we got a short but excellent pattern for a week or two. I guess my point is don't expect us to somehow fluke our way to a 12" snowstorm in some god awful looking pattern. That almost never happens. For the record a Hudson Bay ridge (current pattern) is not the worst look for snow...its not the best either and temps will always be a struggle in this look...but we have managed some wet snow paste jobs in such a pattern, but they aren't typically HECS level storms...most were moderate snowstorms in the city...some were big in the NW elevated parts of our forum though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Had a great time in Gettysburg. Ate at Dobbin House, excellent food! Wife got to show of her new coat. I got a little excited for the drinks... Found some live music at Ploughmans tap house. Nice to get away and relax for a couple days. walking around wasn’t easy though with the ice. But we had a fun time. Apparently CashtownCoop saw us on the street but didn’t give a shout out. Would have been cool if he had. Anyways I’m recharged and ready to track the rest of our epic fails. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Nice job PSU. Good to see you and the family had nice time to unwind. Now get your a$$ back on that medium/long term thread. Your party time is over. Andiamo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Crappy winter...models show a goofy weird solution and people perk up because well...crappy winter...of course it's a long shot...dont try so hard to make sure we know it's one. Most sane people with the exception of ji know it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 No one has bothered to congratulate @mappy on her new green tag? Geez. Tough crowd. Its about time you got one and no need to be stealth black ops mod anymore. Woooo! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Fun to track until it isn't has nothing to do with hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Nice pics Psu! Dobbin house is amazing but its kind of strange having a Rev War restaurant in a civil war town. Philadelphia Fish House punch was great, so was the French Onion Soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Love the guy from Davis West Virginia saying this is a miserable winter and he's had 45 inches of snow. Awwww. So sad for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, H2O said: No one has bothered to congratulate @mappy on her new green tag? Geez. Tough crowd. Its about time you got one and no need to be stealth black ops mod anymore. Woooo! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @mappyCongrats!!! Well deserved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @Mersky what happened to all your CFS mjo phase 8/1 posts??? I was excited to return to an mjo cold phase bliss pattern! oh snap... ^that happened....nevermind. Carry on. Oh btw, have fun attacking isotherm in the NYC sub. I’m sureeee that will end well for you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @mappyCongrats!!! Well deserved good call on deleting that post moving it to banter and thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 nice pics psu. Looks about same as what I found north of Lititz. Even up there it didn’t really cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Love the guy from Davis West Virginia saying this is a miserable winter and he's had 45 inches of snow. Awwww. So sad for him. He's sitting at about 20" below normal for the season and snow out there is a big deal for winter $$$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, mappy said: good call on deleting that post moving it to banter and thanks I’m away 2 days and forget how everything works. Thankfully I cought it before I left it in the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, snowfan said: He's sitting at about 20" below normal for the season and snow out there is a big deal for winter $$$$. you have to remember, mdecoy is super special. so special he blows through red lights to make turns, and passes cars on shoulders during highway backups (and then posts about it!) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m away 2 days and forget how everything works. Thankfully I cought it before I left it in the wrong thread. i was going to leave it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Congrats on Mod @mappy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @RevWarReenactor how was Vermont??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, mappy said: you have to remember, mdecoy is super special. so special he blows through red lights to make turns, and passes cars on shoulders during highway backups (and then posts about it!) And gives drivers the bird and road rages over red lights or tailgating or whatever it was that he got out of his car for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 12Z Euro says I need to get in touch with family in Frostburg and remind them its been a while since we visited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Yes congrats mother @mappy!! (I actually didn't realize you weren't "official" per se!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes congrats mother @mappy!! (I actually didn't realize you weren't "official" per se!) thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @Mersky @psuhoffman you guys gotta work this shit out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: @Mersky @psuhoffman you guys gotta work this shit out. Eh it provides entertainment in this crap of a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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