CAPE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: @psuhoffman, @Bob Chill where do you get those super ensemble maps that have the analog dates in the lower right corner? This is the link I use- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is the link I use- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Thank you. Isn’t there one for a super ensemble. Not even sure what a super ensemble is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: Great job with your model reading lately, keep up the good guessing. Reality is in just about every winter we get 2-4 weeks where the pattern is favorable enough for snow in most of this region. We possibly "wasted" one already, so we might have another 2-3 weeks somewhere between now and mid March. Modeled "perfect" patterns often don't work out. The upcoming advertised pattern looks like a shutout on the means, but it may not turn out that way. My guess is that one or 2 chances will materialize over the next few weeks during transient cold periods, and maybe we(someone's yard) will get lucky. If not, It tends to find ways to snow in February around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you. Isn’t there one for a super ensemble. Not even sure what a super ensemble is lol. It's there at that link- under 500 mb Analogs, go down to Analogs, click on GFS ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not even sure what a super ensemble is lol. Having never looked into it, I have always thought of it as a 'smart' version of the regular ensembles. I just Googled it, and here is an academic technical overview of a super ens modeling system: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015RG000513 The notion of the multimodel superensemble was first described in Krishnamurti et al. [1999]. This utilizes a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. That regression is carried out with respect to analyzed (assimilated) values. Given a number of grid locations, base variables, forecast intervals, and a suite of models, the number of statistical weights can be as high as 107. That many coefficients are needed because of different responses to physical parameterizations of local features such as water bodies, local mountain features, and land surface details within diverse member models. These details contribute to systematic errors in forecasts. The high skill of the superensemble comes from a domain average of the point by point RMS errors that it is minimizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Having never looked into it, I have always thought of it as a 'smart' version of the regular ensembles. I just Googled it, and here is an academic technical overview of a super ens modeling system: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015RG000513 The notion of the multimodel superensemble was first described in Krishnamurti et al. [1999]. This utilizes a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. That regression is carried out with respect to analyzed (assimilated) values. Given a number of grid locations, base variables, forecast intervals, and a suite of models, the number of statistical weights can be as high as 107. That many coefficients are needed because of different responses to physical parameterizations of local features such as water bodies, local mountain features, and land surface details within diverse member models. These details contribute to systematic errors in forecasts. The high skill of the superensemble comes from a domain average of the point by point RMS errors that it is minimizing. And I was thinking that there is an anomaly map that comes from this super ensemble, maybe FSU? Same look as those gfs maps you linked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Happy 2020! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And I was thinking that there is an anomaly map that comes from this super ensemble, maybe FSU? Same look as those gfs maps you linked for me. There might be. I don't look at them that often- typically it's when we are being teased with an h5 look that is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, nj2va said: You forgot to add that your post was sponsored by the Euro. :p There’s been plenty of instances that the models shifted looks in the MR this winter. I guess I’m in the “crowd” that reminds people that looks can change from a D15 smoothed out mean. Yes, models have gotten better over time but I don’t take a D15 look as 100% set in stone since it never is. The gefs has more fluke runs that show some divergent nonsense because they run 4 times a day and have a follow the leader issue and less members. Plus they gave a cold bias at range you have to take into account. But if you take them in 48 hour chunks (ignore a couple fluke runs) and account for the bias they were always indicating problems ahead also imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Eyeballing that the 30 foot line is close, and matches my numbers over the years. Going season to season (10/10-4/30) I have 301.8 inches, a 30.2 average. Doing calendar years I have 272.1 inches or 27.2 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I'm a fan of the 06z Euro jackpot IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm a fan of the 06z Euro jackpot IMBY I'll take it just to get the ground white!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm a fan of the 06z Euro jackpot IMBY Hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 hours ago, mappy said: I'm a fan of the 06z Euro jackpot IMBY If things play out that way, I could see myself at Falling Branch on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 This is the first morning that I am chilled in my home. Cannot get my fingers to warm up. Just put on my finger less knit gloves. Don't worry though, Hot flashes will kick in and I will be in shorts by the afternoon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just had a lovely lunch with Ava Marie. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Just had a lovely lunch with Ava Marie. Very cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I’ll throw this in banter because it belongs here. My forecast for the weekend west of DC is absolutely nothing. Not one flake. Edit: until you get to the wv mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I calculated the monthly snow averages at BWI since the 10/11 winter: DEC: 1.0" JAN: 7.9" FEB: 4.8" MAR: 4.1" Definitely going to see some big changes in the new 30 year normals when they come out (this summer?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very cool! she's pretty cool too. down to earth, easy to talk too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I calculated the monthly snow averages at BWI since the 10/11 winter: DEC: 1.0" JAN: 7.9" FEB: 4.8" MAR: 4.1" Definitely going to see some big changes in the new 30 year normals when they come out (this summer?) Not really... going into this season BWI is averaging exactly 20" over the last 29 years. Their old 30 year average was 20.1 so they are only off by 1/10 of an inch. Even if BWI only gets 5" this season their new 30 year avg would be 19.5" That is only a 0.6" change from the current avg. And that assumes this year is god awful. If BWI makes it to near normal their 30 year avg will remain virtually unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not really... going into this season BWI is averaging exactly 20" over the last 29 years. Their old 30 year average was 20.1 so they are only off by 1/10 of an inch. Even if BWI only gets 5" this season their new 30 year avg would be 19.5" That is only a 0.6" change from the current avg. And that assumes this year is god awful. If BWI makes it to near normal their 30 year avg will remain virtually unchanged. Overall average won't change but we'll be seeing big changes as to how we get there month-to-month. It should be a return to the historical norm where March snow > December snow. (By the way, the monthly changes was what I was referring to, not the total. I think you may have misunderstood my post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Overall average won't change but we'll be seeing big changes as to how we get there month-to-month. It should be a return to the historical norm where March snow > December snow. (By the way, the monthly changes was what I was referring to, not the total. I think you may have misunderstood my post). I missed that...sorry. We went through a long stretch where March snowfall was virtually extinct compared to earlier periods. Lately things have flipped back and the new averages will reflect that. You are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Tastes Great! Where’s @leesburg 04? Today might have been the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Is it tropical season yet? You need to reap Bob asap. He is bad for business spreading hope and shiit like that. EPO ridge pushing into AK...Scandinavian ridges...lights at ends of tunnels..workable patterns coming in quicker. I think you know what needs to be done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 There’s a reason why Dan Snyder doesn’t get in front of the podium very much 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, H2O said: There’s a reason why Dan Snyder doesn’t get in front of the podium very much i told you he got up there and wished everyone a happy thanksgiving lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, H2O said: There’s a reason why Dan Snyder doesn’t get in front of the podium very much An appropriate introduction, considering the history of the team name... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The main reason my team is in the playoffs is that the rest of the division be like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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