January Banter 2020

[stormtracker]

26 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

I think the problem is not your thoughts, we value contributions from knowledgeable folks (especially a retired met with 30 years experience).  The problem is how you present your thoughts.  The criticism wasn't particularly constructive and seemed like a constant attack on PSU.  It's perfectly fine to have disagreements and even criticize.  I think it was your tone that seemed to be at issue.

[jaydreb]

34 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Just taking a poll. Does anyone in here like cold and dry? Obviously we all love snow, but I equally love the cold. I'm getting the vibe that most in here hate cold with no snow because they say it's a waste. 

I respect that, I'm just curious if there's anyone else that legit just loves the cold regardless? 

I only like cold/dry if it’s epic, historic cold. Run of the mill temps in the 20s aren’t very interesting to me.  

[North Balti Zen]

Cold/dry blows.

warm/wet blows.

cold/wet is where it’s at.

 

 

[nj2va]

Cold/dry here is usually good for the mountains with clippers/upslope, which selfishly is good for spending weekends out there.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Mersky, feel free to join me in Philly region Banter thread forum with Wiggum. At least good conversation is struck with retired meteorologists like you and me. Posting in this thread will only get you in trouble. Please read my posts the last 2 months- then base your thoughts on mine-  identical. Let the snow weeenie know it alls have their say in this forum. Challenging them will only make it worse.

Plenty of professionals post here and have no problems!  And he isn’t taking any crap from snow weenies for being a pessimist/realist. It’s actually the exact opposite.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Ya know...I'm still willing to stake a hope on us getting a 12-14" this year...I'm riding that all the way. It'll be 4 years since the 2016 blizzard...and BWI hasnt gone more than 4 years without seeing a foot since 1988-1992! Here's to hoping the trend is still alive! (In which case, we're due!)

(I'm even tempted to start a thread about it...except I won't call it a specific storm so as not to confuse those that lurk on here. But rather, I'd call it..."Every 3-4 years..." and keep it that way unless/until such a storm is firmly on the radar! )

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Plenty of professionals post here and have no problems!  And he isn’t taking any crap from snow weenies for being a pessimist/realist. It’s actually the exact opposite.  

Yeah that's why I don't quite understand where @Albedoman(cool username, btw) is getting that from. This is one of the best regional forums on this site for knowledgeable weather analysis! And really, it seems that there's no fear of challenging one another here...more than capable of having discussions. I admire you guy's knowledge and experience and am learning a lot from all of you. To quote Wiggum...just my $.02 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that's why I don't quite understand where @Albedoman(cool username, btw) is getting that from. This is one of the best regional forums on this site for knowledgeable weather analysis! And really, it seems that there's no fear of challenging one another here...more than capable of having discussions. I admire you guy's knowledge and experience and am learning a lot from all of you. To quote Wiggum...just my $.02 

Haters gonna hate 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

Yeah I guess I must have missed that one.

[Rhino16]

I think Florida has a legit chance with this one, so don’t try to escape. It will find you, and it will snow on you... 

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

^ A trip to Canaan or Deep Creek looks like a good bet.

I’ll be at Deep Creek MLK weekend...hoping for a big event.  One of my favorite events since having the house out there was MLK weekend last year...had about 6” of snow which turned into ice & got about 0.25” on top of the snow.  Then we had WCs -15 or so the next day.  I love interesting events like that.  

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

About half of us do iirc. From Dec-Feb I count how much the bay freezes over as a winter grade. There's a pond back in the woods of a nature center near my house that I skate around on when it's safe. Need good cold for that. Ice was over 10" thick in Feb 2014. I personally find cold/dry quite enjoyable until Mar. Once we hit Mar it should either be snowing or 60-70. Anything else sucks

I love cold, any way, any place, any how.  Cold with moisture is a bonus.

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’ll be at Deep Creek MLK weekend...hoping for a big event.  One of my favorite events since having the house out there was MLK weekend last year...had about 6” of snow which turned into ice & got about 0.25” on top of the snow.  Then we had WCs -15 or so the next day.  I love interesting events like that.  

Ugh I just realized the date of that threat. I’m taking my wife to a little bed and breakfast in Gettysburg for the night that Saturday and my sister is coming up from Reston VA to watch the kids. Of course that will be the day an ice storm hits.  

[RevWarReenactor]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If you don't mind me asking...exactly where are you?  I know you are near Newark Delaware but exactly where makes a difference.  There is a micro climate there wrt the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay and elevation.  If you are where I think you are...it is kinda a snow anus.  The low elevation between the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay really hurts you.  You are also hurt by a downsloping wind off the hills to your west.  

I don't know how mobile your work situation is.  If you went just 25 miles NNW from your area...some of the hills in that area with some elevation get over 30" per year.  Just don't end up in the Susquehanna Valley.  That area is a local minimum and would drive you crazy.  The hills west of the valley do well for their latitude also.  The light blue on that map is about where the 30" avg starts.  

My area btw.. isn't that much in the middle of nowhere.  Hanover PA is only about 7 miles north of me.  Westminster 7 miles to my SW and Hampstead MD about 5 miles south.   I have 2 walmart supercenters within 5 miles.  The westminster Mall is 7 miles away, the Hanover Mall about 9 miles.  2 movie theaters within 10 miles.  Gettysburg is only a 30 min drive.   My exact location on this ridge is rural but its a very quick drive to 2 towns that have enough to do that I never feel like it's a problem.  

WRT why the NWS uses avg versus median... I don't know.  In a lot of locations that get snow more regularly the average isnt skewed as much away from the median or middle 50% range.  In places where they don't get a lot of snow (DC) the fact that they can't get that much below avg because there is a downward limit of 0 allows a few huge snowfalls to skew the avg away from the median.  But you are kind of backwards with the concept of how that limit skews things...the fact that it cannot be much BELOW avg because of the limit of 0 means the big years skew it up more than the down years skew it down.  Again... you can make of the numbers what you want...you can expect whatever you want...but the numbers show that the most likely outcome for snow in any given year is between 10-11".  And that the most significant number of years will fall between 6.7 and 15.8" with a few rare years above or below that.  If you want to use 15.4 as "normal" fine but that wont change the fact that it only happens on average 2-3 times out of 10. 

Thanks so much for the description of my area!! Its very interesting and informative. See the below map for my location (black X), I am at the base of Iron Hill (circled in Red), which is a 332 ft hill and the highest in Delaware. I still have a 90 ft elevation but you'd be shocked that small difference between 90ft and 332ft often means a bit more snow up there. They got a bit more out of the last event (instead of nothing here they got a dusting there). Its only a half mile away. I honestly thought I was north enough to not see much impacts from either bay. I thought wrong.

Also of note is the blue triangle, I drive that way to work and I have no idea why but its always a degree colder and snowier in that spot during marginal events. Its so strange. Its not even super elevated. I wonder if the hills to the south provide a buffer zone from the Cbay.

Thanks for the information on your area. That would be a place I could live. But an hour and a half drive to work probably isn't doable for me. Maybe I could land somewhere north of Bel Air. That way I am in a better area, still within civilization, and within about 45 mins of work. I don't know. But even a 5 mile drive from APG up route 22 to I-95 away from the bay yields more snow. I've seen it happen. So the further away. The better.

Thanks for the details on the climo. I guess I can't really argue it any further. It just feels like there needs to be an account of the years we get a lot more snow and that needs to be factored into the potential. But I guess ultimately, the totals we get on a year by year basis, don't lie. All they tell me is, I need to move to another area.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks so much for the description of my area!! Its very interesting and informative. See the below map for my location (black X), I am at the base of Iron Hill (circled in Red), which is a 332 ft hill and the highest in Delaware. I still have a 90 ft elevation but you'd be shocked that small difference between 90ft and 332ft often means a bit more snow up there. They got a bit more out of the last event (instead of nothing here they got a dusting there). Its only a half mile away. I honestly thought I was north enough to not see much impacts from either bay. I thought wrong.

Also of note is the blue triangle, I drive that way to work and I have no idea why but its always a degree colder and snowier in that spot during marginal events. Its so strange. Its not even super elevated. I wonder if the hills to the south provide a buffer zone from the Cbay.

Thanks for the information on your area. That would be a place I could live. But an hour and a half drive to work probably isn't doable for me. Maybe I could land somewhere north of Bel Air. That way I am in a better area, still within civilization, and within about 45 mins of work. I don't know. But even a 5 mile drive from APG up route 22 to I-95 away from the bay yields more snow. I've seen it happen. So the further away. The better.

Thanks for the details on the climo. I guess I can't really argue it any further. It just feels like there needs to be an account of the years we get a lot more snow and that needs to be factored into the potential. But I guess ultimately, the totals we get on a year by year basis, don't lie. All they tell me is, I need to move to another area.

 

 

300 feet can definitely make some difference. You are in a bad spot. Im familiar. I grew up SE of Philly in NJ in an equally awful spot. Not any worse than a lot of places SE of 95 near water, but definitely not a good spot compared to places west of the fall line.  

I understand the job issue. Barring changing jobs and simply moving where there is a lot more snow like New Hampshire, if you went NW from APG (I assume you work there) you would do better. I don’t know how far you’re willing to go. I commute about 38 miles and an hour each way. If you went that far NW you could get to some places in southern PA with an elevation near 1000 feet that do good (like 35” avg 30”median). The hills near New Park in PA. But that area is pretty rural. Even if you just got into NW Hartford County NW of Bel Air you would still do better. The other option are the hills in SE   PA northwest of Wilmington. They do ok.  But those places still won’t suddenly be deep winter all the time. If you want snow on the ground a lot of winter you need to move further away then even where I live. Like the mountains in New England or western MD. That’s just not our climo here. But if you would be happy simply getting a couple decent snowstorms per year MOST years moving 45 mins NW would do that for you. 

[RDM]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I think the problem is not your thoughts, we value contributions from knowledgeable folks (especially a retired met with 30 years experience).  The problem is how you present your thoughts.  The criticism wasn't particularly constructive and seemed like a constant attack on PSU.  It's perfectly fine to have disagreements and even criticize.  I think it was your tone that seemed to be at issue.

Well said sir.  As a retired Fed who managed a lot of people in my career in some very stressful circumstances all over the world there's a few things I used to share with employees and especially new managers to help them stay on track in their careers...   And these things apply to just about everything not just forums about the weather (although I occasionally find myself not following them the way I should with the LR showing sn flips on a dime!).

     The first is to always assume noble intent.  If you convey the same towards others it will invariably be returned in kind to you when you slip up and need a little "help".

     The second is when you get the urge to "just tell someone how you feel" go ahead and draft it if you must, but don't send it.  Instead, sleep on it and first thing the next morning read it again and delete it.  Chances are, after you reflect on it after a night's sleep you'll read what you wrote the day before very differently.   

    The third thing was to remember it's ok to be passionate about whatever you do.  Just keep in mind no matter how hard you work, no matter what you do in life, nor what you accomplish, the thing people will remember most about you is how you made them feel.  In that regard, it's often not what we say to each other it's how we say it.  

[aldie 22]

Anybody else miss Weenietown?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Wonder what the bing range NAM is going to show?

[CentralVaNATS]

If anyone is in need of a snow pic I still have some left from Tuesday, here in NW Stafford.

Not sure why its showing up sideways

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

[* shine *]

Anybody else miss Weenietown?

A place where even I belong.

[showmethesnow]

6 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

It's been a while since I chased lake effect . While I have experienced decent events with thunder and lightning up off Erie . I haven't been lucky enough to experience any rates over 2-3 " / hr. ..or totals over 2 feet . Yesterday's Sqaulls reminded me of my LES chases .November 2014 in the south side of Buffalo would have been epic . Here's the 31 hr loop. Pure Awesomeness!!!!

I might retire to Redfield, NY in the Tugs 

But it's Fake Snow. 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/11/14/don-paul-remembers-the-november-storm/

[nw baltimore wx]

I like cold and dry, especially if the local ponds freeze. I remember being a kid and it unexpectedly snowed an inch or so from a clipper overnight, and I was a little mad because I knew it had messed up the ice at our local pond.

I’m not a big fan of cold, dry, AND wind.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Never!!

Until I can experience it I am going to consider it Fake Snow. 

[aldie 22]

I love putting all of my hopes and dreams in the hands of algorithms and computers 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I love putting all of my hopes and dreams in the hands of algorithms and computers 

You should probably seek professional help for that.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

You should probably seek professional help for that.

I thought that's what the banter thread was 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I thought that's what the banter thread was 

Your professional help comes from these boards? With all the whackos no wonder you are so warped. 

Maybe you should get professional help for your professional help. I would consider it myself but it is far to late for me. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Organize a bus trip up to Erie next big  Les event( not a short bus though) 

I'm in Rochester the 22nd and 23rd wish me luck

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm in Rochester the 22nd and 23rd wish me luck

 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Organize a bus trip up to Erie next big  Les event( not a short bus though) 

But a short bus would bring back so many fond memories. 

Actually told my wife last night that we were going back to Rocky Gap Casino/Hotel in Cumberland MD for my B-Day in February. Am going to try to time a good storm around a weekend and hopefully get snowed in. Loved it up there.