January Banter 2020

[H2O]

Banter/sports/LR disco thread?

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Banter/sports/LR disco thread?

Isn't it time for your haircut and mani/pedi appointment?

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I'm personally very much enjoying the GFS keeping the 20th and beyond pretty much completely sub-freezing. Hope it's on to something!

im sure it will change at least 5x between now and then. enjoy that ride. 

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

im sure it will change at least 5x between now and then. enjoy that ride. 

I know it will, but so far this winter most of the time I've looked at the models beyond 7 days, there hasn't been much in the way of cold at all, and let's be honest, that has been an accurate depiction for this winter so far. So yeah, it's nice to finally see some substantial cold, even if in the long range. Hasn't been one of those winters where the models are constantly showing cold 10 days away and it never pans out, at least from my vantage point. Guys in that forum have been saying for a little while now that signals become more favorable around the 20th and beyond, so to see the models zoning in on that is encouraging. You are right though, gotta temper expectations. Just saying it's nice to see, that's all. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I know it will, but so far this winter most of the time I've looked at the models beyond 7 days, there hasn't been much in the way of cold at all, and let's be honest, that has been an accurate depiction for this winter so far. So yeah, it's nice to finally see some substantial cold, even if in the long range. Hasn't been one of those winters where the models are constantly showing cold 10 days away and it never pans out, at least from my vantage point. Guys in that forum have been saying for a little while now that signals become more favorable around the 20th and beyond, so to see the models zoning in on that is encouraging. You are right though, gotta temper expectations. Just saying it's nice to see, that's all. 

see my post from November. has worked out wonderful not worrying about anything beyond day 5

On 11/18/2019 at 8:00 AM, mappy said:

 

[H2O]

Given how shitty I did tuesday with snow because temps whored me I want an icebox.  Let my rain hit temps in the 20s!!!!!

[H2O]

Just now, mappy said:

see my post from November. has worked out wonderful not worrying about anything beyond day 5

 

Imma gon start giving you daily LR updates via email now

[Steve25]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

see my post from November. has worked out wonderful not worrying about anything beyond day 5

 

It's a smart strategy. I just don't have the self-control 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

And that should be ok unless PSU is off limits....is that the case? Maybe his mistake was not doing it in banter?

No he can question what I say all he wants in the main thread. No one has to use kid gloves with me.   But he continually ignores "qualifiers" or misinterprets things people say.  It isn't just me.  He has gotten into it over that in the NYC sub also.  Last week he was taking issue with frd calling a storm to our west a "cutter" because it might not have fit a canonical definition but everyone knew what he meant.  With my posts he continually ignores the "if" qualifier and takes a hypothetical scenario as a prediction.  When I said ..."If the AO/NAO doesn't improve January is toast" that wasn't a prediction but a possible scenario.  It was a scenario I was worried about yes.   The guidance right now is improving.  They all develop a huge EPO ridge which takes the AO back towards neutral instead of +2/3.  That is a significant improvement.  But if the AO stays above +2 with that pac look we are toast...there are NO examples of a snowy month in DC with that profile.  When I researched analogs to the projected central pac ridge/+AO look in January and it showed that about 80% of the time that pattern in January leads to a below avg snowfall year in DC that wasn't me being pessimistic, its just math.  I said the probabilities don't look good.  But I made a post that showed the better outcome analogs and what to look for if we wanted those also.  But he only commented on the post I made about the "bad" analogs and said I was cancelling winter...when what I said was if that pattern locks in like these bad analogs did then were screwed.  

He continually takes issue with a specific way someone says something when its not positive, either stating something too strongly (which is ironic because he uses definitive adjectives when he gives positive predictions), or not using the exact perfect term to describe something...imo it doesn't add anything of value but he can continue to question me all he wants.  Doesn't affect my day.  

 

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

Imma gon start giving you daily LR updates via email now

you will find they will go unanswered.  

6 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

It's a smart strategy. I just don't have the self-control 

sucks to be you. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No he can question what I say all he wants in the main thread. No one has to use kid gloves with me.   But he continually ignores "qualifiers" or misinterprets things people say.  It isn't just me.  He has gotten into it over that in the NYC sub also.  Last week he was taking issue with frd calling a storm to our west a "cutter" because it might not have fit a canonical definition but everyone knew what he meant.  With my posts he continually ignores the "if" qualifier and takes a hypothetical scenario as a prediction.  When I said ..."If the AO/NAO doesn't improve January is toast" that wasn't a prediction but a possible scenario.  It was a scenario I was worried about yes.   The guidance right now is improving.  They all develop a huge EPO ridge which takes the AO back towards neutral instead of +2/3.  That is a significant improvement.  But if the AO stays above +2 with that pac look we are toast...there are NO examples of a snowy month in DC with that profile.  When I researched analogs to the projected central pac ridge/+AO look in January and it showed that about 80% of the time that pattern in January leads to a below avg snowfall year in DC that wasn't me being pessimistic, its just math.  I said the probabilities don't look good.  But I made a post that showed the better outcome analogs and what to look for if we wanted those also.  But he only commented on the post I made about the "bad" analogs and said I was cancelling winter...when what I said was if that pattern locks in like these bad analogs did then were screwed.  

He continually takes issue with a specific way someone says something when its not positive, either stating something too strongly (which is ironic because he uses definitive adjectives when he gives positive predictions), or not using the exact perfect term to describe something...imo it doesn't add anything of value but he can continue to question me all he wants.  Doesn't affect my day.  

 

this

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No he can question what I say all he wants in the main thread. No one has to use kid gloves with me.   But he continually ignores "qualifiers" or misinterprets things people say.  It isn't just me.  He has gotten into it over that in the NYC sub also.  Last week he was taking issue with frd calling a storm to our west a "cutter" because it might not have fit a canonical definition but everyone knew what he meant.  With my posts he continually ignores the "if" qualifier and takes a hypothetical scenario as a prediction.  When I said ..."If the AO/NAO doesn't improve January is toast" that wasn't a prediction but a possible scenario.  It was a scenario I was worried about yes.   The guidance right now is improving.  They all develop a huge EPO ridge which takes the AO back towards neutral instead of +2/3.  That is a significant improvement.  But if the AO stays above +2 with that pac look we are toast...there are NO examples of a snowy month in DC with that profile.  When I researched analogs to the projected central pac ridge/+AO look in January and it showed that about 80% of the time that pattern in January leads to a below avg snowfall year in DC that wasn't me being pessimistic, its just math.  I said the probabilities don't look good.  But I made a post that showed the better outcome analogs and what to look for if we wanted those also.  But he only commented on the post I made about the "bad" analogs and said I was cancelling winter...when what I said was if that pattern locks in like these bad analogs did then were screwed.  

He continually takes issue with a specific way someone says something when its not positive, either stating something too strongly (which is ironic because he uses definitive adjectives when he gives positive predictions), or not using the exact perfect term to describe something...imo it doesn't add anything of value but he can continue to question me all he wants.  Doesn't affect my day.  

 

I figured you could handle debate and criticism. I wasn't defending him in general just was asking if you were off limits lol

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Here's a question that always comes up when I read the long range cold disco - I am never quite sure what each person is chasing. I mean, we simply need "cold enough" air masses to support big storms, we don't need bay freezing cold at all (in fact, I don't want that as it almost always murders snow chances due to suppression). Hard to tell when reading the discos if people complaining about mixed signals for cold are talking about DEEP cold or just cold enough. Get some cold air nearby and an active southern stream and let's see what happens...

I usually analyze long range patterns through the scope of "how does this impact our chances of snow compared to normal".   Doesn't mean HECS or BIG storm.  If a pattern is likely to lead to a bunch of 2-3" snowfalls that add up to an above avg snowfall period...or a moderate 3-6" type event...that would still be something I would take notice of.  But if the past comps to a particular pattern tended to yield either no snow...or at best a really minor 1-2" event...that would not indicate a good pattern to me.  Yea a fluke 1-2" event can pop up in a bad pattern but it's not worth chasing that at long range because there really is no way to pick up on a "threat of a 1" snowfall" at long range.  The markers for a particularly snowy period are more rare and therefor a bit easier to identify at range.  Doesn't mean we would get a big snow...lots of good looks go to waste, and the pattern could end up completely different than guidance...but sometimes the drivers we need to get a snowy period can show hints at range.  We saw the big snow threats (some ended better than others) in December 2018,  March 2018, March 2017, January 2016 way in advance.  And while the discreet events were hard to pin because of a progressive pattern we saw the potential for a lot of snow way in advance in 2015 and 2014 also.  So picking out the threat of a snowy period at range doesn't always end in failure. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, baltimoreguy said:

Rain looking less and less likely until after the game ends Saturday. Any thoughts on wind? I don't think it will be that strong but am a little worried. Lamar definitely plays better in good weather. Unlike Flacco who was as impervious to cold and wind as he was to every other external stimulus.

Here's a crazy fact I've uncovered: this will be the third time the Ravens have hosted a playoff game with kickoff temps in the 60s. 1/3/04 and 1/13/07 - both kickoff temp of 63, both Saturday games, both losses. What are the odds that of the 7 home playoff games the Ravens have ever had, 3 of them have been January days with mid-60s temps?

Dang I hadn't heard about the weather for 2007...but I did hear about the one in 2004 (and that one, unfortunately...was also the Titans). Man I hate statistical oddities like that! Makes you afraid it's gonna repeat itself...although it's a little hard to imagine given just how much has come together for us this year. After all this, to just fall flat and go one and done? That would be the biggest waste in franchise history. I mean it is the playoffs and anything can happen, but...it would take a monumental collapse on our part--or something freakish like a Lamar injury or something. Otherwise...can't see it. So hopefully it doesn't mean anything)

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I figured you could handle debate and criticism. I wasn't defending him in general just was asking if you were off limits lol

I had no problem with your post.  

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, baltimoreguy said:

Rain looking less and less likely until after the game ends Saturday. Any thoughts on wind? I don't think it will be that strong but am a little worried. Lamar definitely plays better in good weather. Unlike Flacco who was as impervious to cold and wind as he was to every other external stimulus.

Here's a crazy fact I've uncovered: this will be the third time the Ravens have hosted a playoff game with kickoff temps in the 60s. 1/3/04 and 1/13/07 - both kickoff temp of 63, both Saturday games, both losses. What are the odds that of the 7 home playoff games the Ravens have ever had, 3 of them have been January days with mid-60s temps?

Wind from the south and southwest 10-15 mph.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I get what you are saying in regards to the median. I still am not sure its an accurate measure of what the potential is. I want to know why the NWS uses average and not median. The capital weather gang also uses the average. Sure, the lower amounts will skew it down, but its range bound on the downward end but not on the upward end. Again, I don't think 10 inches would represent a good number for DC because in the example I used, if DC got around 10 inches for 10 years, it would be below what is expected. Not what is expected as you have said.

Maybe we just have to agree to disagree. I understand the point you are making fully. I am just not sold it is an accurate measure of things. I don't think other pro mets are either.

 

As far as the SW to NE orientation; that's the thing, it doesn't apply here. I am a full 80 miles west and somewhat north of Atlantic City. Did you know, we have similar climo? The west part does me absolutely not good. Far enough west to miss coastal storms. That's about the only thing the west part does for me. Its because, like you said, the Delaware Bay and the C bay are up my ass. Like I said, its a **** area for snow.

Honestly, part of the reason I bought here is because I assumed that the SW/NE orientation balanced things out. It doesn't. I'd probably be good with about 35-40 inches per year. Its a good amount but its not so much that it gets annoying (I wouldn't want to do the 150 inches Syracuse does).

I've thought about moving out into mapgirl Katie land, but honestly, no offense, its in the middle of nowhere. I like having all my resutrants, malls, hospitals, grocery stores, within about a 10 miles radius. I am not a fan of taking a 30 minute drive to civilization. I have to balance that with my love of snow and I just don't think its enough to make me move. I really would love nothing more for their to be civilization somewhere, anywhere, to the northwest of my location that is still within a doable driving distance from APG. But after extensive research, that place doesn't actually exist.

Its a **** area.

 

But I appreciate you replying to me!

If you don't mind me asking...exactly where are you?  I know you are near Newark Delaware but exactly where makes a difference.  There is a micro climate there wrt the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay and elevation.  If you are where I think you are...it is kinda a snow anus.  The low elevation between the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay really hurts you.  You are also hurt by a downsloping wind off the hills to your west.  

I don't know how mobile your work situation is.  If you went just 25 miles NNW from your area...some of the hills in that area with some elevation get over 30" per year.  Just don't end up in the Susquehanna Valley.  That area is a local minimum and would drive you crazy.  The hills west of the valley do well for their latitude also.  The light blue on that map is about where the 30" avg starts.  

My area btw.. isn't that much in the middle of nowhere.  Hanover PA is only about 7 miles north of me.  Westminster 7 miles to my SW and Hampstead MD about 5 miles south.   I have 2 walmart supercenters within 5 miles.  The westminster Mall is 7 miles away, the Hanover Mall about 9 miles.  2 movie theaters within 10 miles.  Gettysburg is only a 30 min drive.   My exact location on this ridge is rural but its a very quick drive to 2 towns that have enough to do that I never feel like it's a problem.  

WRT why the NWS uses avg versus median... I don't know.  In a lot of locations that get snow more regularly the average isnt skewed as much away from the median or middle 50% range.  In places where they don't get a lot of snow (DC) the fact that they can't get that much below avg because there is a downward limit of 0 allows a few huge snowfalls to skew the avg away from the median.  But you are kind of backwards with the concept of how that limit skews things...the fact that it cannot be much BELOW avg because of the limit of 0 means the big years skew it up more than the down years skew it down.  Again... you can make of the numbers what you want...you can expect whatever you want...but the numbers show that the most likely outcome for snow in any given year is between 10-11".  And that the most significant number of years will fall between 6.7 and 15.8" with a few rare years above or below that.  If you want to use 15.4 as "normal" fine but that wont change the fact that it only happens on average 2-3 times out of 10. 

[Vice-Regent]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What the hell are you talking about? The Euro/EPS is discussed in detail every.single.run. The EPS has actually been the front runner showing the shift back to a colder regime in the east. Enjoy your delusional life. 

When the operational is bad you go straight for the EPS in order to attain mental comfort. You know nothing John Snow.

[Steve25]

29 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

When the operational is bad you go straight for the EPS in order to attain mental comfort. You know nothing John Snow.

If the pattern does wind up being much better around the 20th, will you be the type to admit you were wrong? Pretend like you never said anything and enjoy it? Or just disappear? 

You may be right, and if the pattern still sucks through the end of the month I'm sure you'll be the one to say those guys were wrong and grasping at straws. That's fine, as long as you own it when you're wrong. 

[Bob Chill]

33 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

When the operational is bad you go straight for the EPS in order to attain mental comfort. You know nothing John Snow.

Again, what the hell are you talking about. I focus almost exclusively ensemble guidance beyond 6-7 days. If you're trying to troll me you need to get the facts straight. You're actually trolling yourself here and look like a fool 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Again, what the hell are you talking about. I focus almost exclusively ensemble guidance beyond 6-7 days. If you're trying to troll me you need to get the facts straight. You're actually trolling yourself here and look like a fool 

in this case looks aren't deceiving. 

[aldie 22]

Wet pattern first then cold is still my preference. Cold pattern hoping for wet makes me sad

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

When the operational is bad you go straight for the EPS in order to attain mental comfort. You know nothing John Snow.

*jon

stop trolling.

[aldie 22]

Guess we didn't make it to Saturday 

[Steve25]

Just taking a poll. Does anyone in here like cold and dry? Obviously we all love snow, but I equally love the cold. I'm getting the vibe that most in here hate cold with no snow because they say it's a waste. 

I respect that, I'm just curious if there's anyone else that legit just loves the cold regardless? 

[MountainGeek]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

Instead of getting all butthurt, why not hear what people are telling you and just tone it down a bit on the "certainty" that is coming across in your posts as somewhat arrogant? I'm sure we'd all love to have your thoughts and input, and people will definitely give you the respect you deserve over time if you become a solid contributor.

I'm assuming that you aren't actually arrogant, you're just coming across that way at times because you're relatively new to the board and you may not realize how your writing style looks to others. No way you did this for 30+ years and didn't get your ego stomped good at least a few times by the fickle nature of the game. 

So, again -- we'd love to have your contributions, may I suggest taking an introspective look at how you might be coming across to others and give them a chance to get to know and respect your expertise over time. 

[jaydreb]

11 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

The more input we can get from knowledgeable posters the better so I hope you keep posting.  

I don’t think PSU cancelled winter, he was just pointing out that the historical analogs did not look good if the crappy pattern lasted multiple weeks.  He puts a lot of work and research into his posts.   

[Albedoman]

17 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

Mersky, feel free to join me in Philly region Banter thread forum with Wiggum. At least good conversation is struck with retired meteorologists like you and me. Posting in this thread will only get you in trouble. Please read my posts the last 2 months- then base your thoughts on mine-  identical. Let the snow weeenie know it alls have their say in this forum. Challenging them will only make it worse.

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Just taking a poll. Does anyone in here like cold and dry? Obviously we all love snow, but I equally love the cold. I'm getting the vibe that most in here hate cold with no snow because they say it's a waste. 

I respect that, I'm just curious if there's anyone else that legit just loves the cold regardless? 

About half of us do iirc. From Dec-Feb I count how much the bay freezes over as a winter grade. There's a pond back in the woods of a nature center near my house that I skate around on when it's safe. Need good cold for that. Ice was over 10" thick in Feb 2014. I personally find cold/dry quite enjoyable until Mar. Once we hit Mar it should either be snowing or 60-70. Anything else sucks

[Bob Chill]

I'm starting to wonder if BethesdaBoy is back...

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

Don’t use my name as an excuse to leave. I’ve not once tried to shut you up. I’ve refuted things I disagree with but always supported your right to say what you want.

But if you’re going to act a little arrogant and obnoxious (I know I do too sometimes) you can’t cry and stomp your feet when there’s blowback.  That’s weak stuff. 

Furthermore, and I don’t know if you realize it, but you have on numerous occasions taken comments by myself and others out of context to make a point.  You’ve misrepresented things I’ve said several times.  And it’s not just me, you’ve had conflict with several members on here now.  

You don’t have to leave, but if you act in a combative way expect others to push back.  I act that way sometimes but I don’t mind the conflict and you will never hear me complaing about it if someone wants to go at it with me.