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January Banter 2020


George BM
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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Not a good night for the Caps. Pure crap. They should have declined all penalties. :thumbsdown:

 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Caps-Flyers always a competitive rivalry throughout the years. Flyers had a horrible road trip. I'm sure being back home tonight helped.

 

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

CAPS very sluggish tonight, legs were toast, not crisp.

Going to the game Monday night!!

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2 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I was simply questioning him on canceling January on December 28th. Is that not allowed, especially after he received 5” of snow Tuesday. 

I had a 60F day last saturday, 0.5" snow tuesday, and will be back in the 60s again this weekend.  Thats half the month shot so January def hasn't been working out for some of us.

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13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

And that should be ok unless PSU is off limits....is that the case? Maybe his mistake was not doing it in banter?

Oh no, psu isn’t off limits. Merksy posted in the LR thread about a “No doubt" this is going to happen pattern, even tho there are numerous posts of him giving psu a hard time for punting January 

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13 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I was simply questioning him on canceling January on December 28th. Is that not allowed?  

Sure is. But you can’t then go make posts yourself about upcoming long range patterns saying those will happen because they show promise vs a torch

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12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Moving this here before they come with pitchforks for both of us!  

Your scenario would be accurate except you forgot the 2 years in 10 that DC gets almost no snow.  Those years offset the higher ones somewhat. But again you keep calling average normal. But if DC only gets an average winter 20% of the time is that normal?   Those 2 big years skew the average higher than what DC gets the majority of the time.  Like I said DC gets between about 7-15” half the time. 25% of the time more and 25% less.  To me that makes that 7-15 range normal. You can call whatever you want normal but it won’t change the frequency or probabilities. 

Wrt your climo, the rain snow line often runs SW to NE in our region due to the fall line and coast.  Your north is offset by your east.  Your closed to the coast.  My elevation is a big benefit.  Without it I would only avg a little more than you.  Your meso climate is also influenced by the Chesapeake bay to your southwest. That really doesn’t help. 

Again if you tell me what ball park # and under what conditions you need snow in a season to feel ok with it I could use the local coop data to tell you how often that happens. I could also tell you how far NW you would need to go for that to  be a more normal occurrence. 

I don’t know your personal situation but if you moved only 20 miles to your northwest and to a spot with some decent elevation you could go from about 19” a year to 30, maybe even a little more. Your exact location is pretty bad for snow. And it seems very important to you.  So why don’t you move 30 mins NW where a lot of these marginal events would break your way?

I get what you are saying in regards to the median. I still am not sure its an accurate measure of what the potential is. I want to know why the NWS uses average and not median. The capital weather gang also uses the average. Sure, the lower amounts will skew it down, but its range bound on the downward end but not on the upward end. Again, I don't think 10 inches would represent a good number for DC because in the example I used, if DC got around 10 inches for 10 years, it would be below what is expected. Not what is expected as you have said.

Maybe we just have to agree to disagree. I understand the point you are making fully. I am just not sold it is an accurate measure of things. I don't think other pro mets are either.

 

As far as the SW to NE orientation; that's the thing, it doesn't apply here. I am a full 80 miles west and somewhat north of Atlantic City. Did you know, we have similar climo? The west part does me absolutely not good. Far enough west to miss coastal storms. That's about the only thing the west part does for me. Its because, like you said, the Delaware Bay and the C bay are up my ass. Like I said, its a **** area for snow.

Honestly, part of the reason I bought here is because I assumed that the SW/NE orientation balanced things out. It doesn't. I'd probably be good with about 35-40 inches per year. Its a good amount but its not so much that it gets annoying (I wouldn't want to do the 150 inches Syracuse does).

I've thought about moving out into mapgirl Katie land, but honestly, no offense, its in the middle of nowhere. I like having all my resutrants, malls, hospitals, grocery stores, within about a 10 miles radius. I am not a fan of taking a 30 minute drive to civilization. I have to balance that with my love of snow and I just don't think its enough to make me move. I really would love nothing more for their to be civilization somewhere, anywhere, to the northwest of my location that is still within a doable driving distance from APG. But after extensive research, that place doesn't actually exist.

Its a **** area.

 

But I appreciate you replying to me!

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ooooohhhh the small hints of doubt

Degrade- the key word is “degrade”. At some point someone will post about the long range look degrading- that will be the tipping point. Then it will trend back to the dumpster fire.

A new trend I’ve been noticing on this forum in recent years is that the new weenie analog is 1994- every long range look now matches 1994.

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Here's a question that always comes up when I read the long range cold disco - I am never quite sure what each person is chasing. I mean, we simply need "cold enough" air masses to support big storms, we don't need bay freezing cold at all (in fact, I don't want that as it almost always murders snow chances due to suppression). Hard to tell when reading the discos if people complaining about mixed signals for cold are talking about DEEP cold or just cold enough. Get some cold air nearby and an active southern stream and let's see what happens...

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Here's a question that always comes up when I read the long range cold disco - I am never quite sure what each person is chasing. I mean, we simply need "cold enough" air masses to support big storms, we don't need bay freezing cold at all (in fact, I don't want that as it almost always murders snow chances due to suppression). Hard to tell when reading the discos if people complaining about mixed signals for cold are talking about DEEP cold or just cold enough. Get some cold air nearby and an active southern stream and let's see what happens...

I cant follow the LR stuff. too many ups and downs

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24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Here's a question that always comes up when I read the long range cold disco - I am never quite sure what each person is chasing. I mean, we simply need "cold enough" air masses to support big storms, we don't need bay freezing cold at all (in fact, I don't want that as it almost always murders snow chances due to suppression). Hard to tell when reading the discos if people complaining about mixed signals for cold are talking about DEEP cold or just cold enough. Get some cold air nearby and an active southern stream and let's see what happens...

To Bob's credit he talks about patterns conducive to snow not so much cold. PSU is looking for the white rhino....C.A.P.E I don't know about that guy he seems unstable....stormtracker lives in DC so who cares.

 

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22 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Here's a question that always comes up when I read the long range cold disco - I am never quite sure what each person is chasing. I mean, we simply need "cold enough" air masses to support big storms, we don't need bay freezing cold at all (in fact, I don't want that as it almost always murders snow chances due to suppression). Hard to tell when reading the discos if people complaining about mixed signals for cold are talking about DEEP cold or just cold enough. Get some cold air nearby and an active southern stream and let's see what happens...

Yeah this is an interesting question. I think most people have an idea or perception of what is favorable for winter weather- for most here that means legit snow chances- and ofc what is considered favorable varies based on specific location within our region, as factors like physical topography/proximity to water/UHI lead to disparate local climates over relatively short distances.

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

To Bob's credit he talks about patterns conducive to snow not so much cold. PSU is looking for the white rhino....C.A.P.E I don't know about that guy he seems unstable....stormtracker lives in DC so who cares.

 

au contraire.

I am very stable and level headed. Despite living in a place that blows for snow chances, I track on, contributing for the greater good. 

:hurrbear:

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