mdhokie Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Stinks to be a local ski resort this year, they can't catch a break. Was going to play hooky next week and get some runs in but its gonna be 60. Looking at the LR I dont see much opportunity to rebuild base before March shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: In the last roughly 25 years we have seen 3 times where the 3 year snowfall has come in under the current 2016-2019 stretch of 36.7". 1996-99 with 33.7" 2006-09 with 28.6" 2010-13 with 24.2" And one year that just missed. 1999-02 with 37.1" And when you look beyond 96 we see many instances with 3 year stretches below or just above the current 3 year period. Now if you want to argue for a 4 year stretch (2016-20) with 37" even though this winter has yet to end we see several periods that fall close to or exceed the futility. 49-53 with 32.8" (below) 72-76 with 42.0" (just above) 88-92 with 39.1" (just above) And I would put good money on that we see at least enough snow before this winter ends to put this current stretch above 72-76 and 88-92. Now the above screams climo for what to expect on our leaner years. It just does. there is nothing at all special with what we are currently seeing. Now if you want to see an exercise in futility just take a gander at the stretch in the 70's (70-77) that I brought up a few days ago and you wanted to debate. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf We only see 80.5" through that whole 7 year stretch for a 11.5" yearly average. It doesn't get much worse then that though 49-56 makes a run at it with 84.1" Now I am pretty much out of this debate after this post. It was getting old days ago and it is just stale and dead now. . Thanks for putting together the stats. I don't disagree with any of it. Where I disagree is in the interpretation, saying we are on track for the worst 4 year period is not "climo of leaner years". Its historically bad. Everything you describe above is historically horrible and not run of the mill climo. Would you say a one in 30 year snowstorm in DC was normal climo or historical? It would be historical. So what is the difference? None that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 So I take a break and come back to take a look and now even the banter thread sucks a$$. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So I take a break and come back to take a look and now even the banter thread sucks a$$. it should be better for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So I take a break and come back to take a look and now even the banter thread sucks a$$. After 20 years on these boards this has been by far the most brutal year. It’s absolutely unreadable at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Eh...if he dies...he dies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Stocks are plummeting (unless you have Tesla). Coronavirus is rampant. Impeachment Trial is maddening. Weekend storm is crap. Long range shows no change in the pattern. Super Bowl still played on a Sunday instead of Saturday night. Everything sucks right now. Or, the Market will rebound as history shows and coronavirus will be a thing of the past just as SARS and MERS was. There will be some opportunities later in February and March for cold and snow and we will be enjoying March Madness, baseball spring training and hockey. Things will be Greening up and outdoor activities will pick up. Good Times ahead. Choose your path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So I take a break and come back to take a look and now even the banter thread sucks a$$. Nah. Just that the Banter thread has now become nothing but overflow for the tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and petty arguing from the regular model/discussion thread! I'm worried @WxWatcher007 might require mods in the Panic Room, at this rate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So I take a break and come back to take a look and now even the banter thread sucks a$$. 6 minutes ago, ravensrule said: After 20 years on these boards this has been by far the most brutal year. It’s absolutely unreadable at times. So what would you want to see changed? We have people saying we have sticks up places and need to relax and others ready to walk away for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Nah. Just that the Banter thread has now become nothing but overflow for the tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and petty arguing from the regular model/discussion thread! I'm worried @WxWatcher007 might require mods in the Panic Room, at this rate!! PS: expect the banter thread to be filled with more posts like that. moving them out of the LR as i see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: PS: expect the banter thread to be filled with more posts like that. moving them out of the LR as i see them. Not a task I'd envy doing. Like cleaning the Augean Stables. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Not a task I'd envy doing. Like cleaning the Augean Stables. Thankfully, now that Randy fixed the mod power bug -- I don't need Herculean strength/speed to get it done! can move a whole slew of them at once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, H2O said: So what would you want to see changed? We have people saying we have sticks up places and need to relax and others ready to walk away for good. Nothing? What can you do? People need to feel better about things anyway they can. At the expense of whatever. Banter should be left untouched except for vulgar/profanity/attack kind of stuff. Just pointing out that (IMHO only) it currently sucks a$$. Just an observation. No solution necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, H2O said: So what would you want to see changed? We have people saying we have sticks up places and need to relax and others ready to walk away for good. Snow...lots and lots of SNOW Honestly I think you all have done the best possible this year. For the most part the really stupid stuff has been in banter or panic room. The main thread has been as good as possible given the total crap we have had to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, H2O said: So what would you want to see changed? We have people saying we have sticks up places and need to relax and others ready to walk away for good. Man it's not that bad...I get it that the LR gets cluttered and that can be cleaned up but man my guess is the people who are most upset are generally used to controlling everything in their lives or are the big boss and they get all butthurt if things don't look exactly like they want it to. My two cents but yeesh...it's a dang weather board full of people who love snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing? What can you do? People need to feel better about things anyway they can. At the expense of whatever. Banter should be left untouched except for vulgar/profanity/attack kind of stuff. Just pointing out that (IMHO only) it currently sucks a$$. Just an observation. No solution necessary. Gotcha. So more Caps talk, less Mdecoy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: If you want to hang your hat on last years January "snowstorm", then yes, we've had it "amazing". I didn't know one isolated wet snowstorm that melts off a few days later makes up for 4 years of record breaking below normal snowfall. I knew we had bad climo, but I didn't know we lived in South Carolina. Why do you keep calling it a "wet snowstorm". That whole week was cold. Most of the snow from that storm fell with temperatures in the upper 20's to around 30 degrees. The high for the day was only 32. It was NOT a "wet snowstorm" anymore than almost all our snowstorms are "wet" snow. Also..."melts off a few days later"? Are you kidding me? You realize the coldest daily avg high temperature in DC is 43! How many snowstorms do you think keep snow OTG for more than a "few" days after it snows somewhere that the coldest time of the year has average highs more than 10 degrees above freezing? That happens like a handful of times a decade if we are lucky. And lastly that was NOT the only snow in DC last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, H2O said: Gotcha. So more Caps talk, less Mdecoy. This is why you have special powers here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I don't know what "12z rubs" means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Man it's not that bad...I get it that the LR gets cluttered and that can be cleaned up but man my guess is the people who are most upset are generally used to controlling everything in their lives or are the big boss and they get all butthurt if things don't look exactly like they want it to. My two cents but yeesh...it's a dang weather board full of people who love snow. There are times when banter is funny AF and fun to read no matter what the mood is. Then there's times you wish you could get the 5 minutes back that you spend reading lame shitz. Don't get me wrong though, banter free for all is the way it should ALWAYS be. I'm allowed to say it sucks whenever I want tho 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: There are times when banter is funny AF and fun to read no matter what the mood is. Then there's times you wish you could get the 5 minutes back that you spend reading lame shitz. Don't get me wrong though, banter free for all is the way it should ALWAYS be. I'm allow to say it sucks whenever I want tho 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: it's a dang weather board full of people who love snow. ...and therein lies the problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: I am just arguing against the people who say "this is normal" or "this is our climo" and use stuff that happened years ago to try and justify it. 8% of DC's climo is not their climo actually. I should probably just stop. Its been talked out. I am just frustrated and I am frustrated that people on a weather forum that love snow, aren't equally as frustrated and are actually trying to say "normal climo here" which is simply statistically false. Why do you assume that just because I am not making a ton of posts whining and complaining that I am not frustrated? Of course I am frustrated when its not snowing! Just because I don't make 5 posts a day whining about our lack of snow doesn't mean I am not frustrated. Let me summarize what our "normal" climo is and then I am done and you can believe whatever you want to believe. To get a "snowy" winter we basically need one of 2 very anomalous patterns to be dominant at some point in the winter. Either an EPO/PNA combo ridge like 2003/2014/2015 or an NAO block like 1996/2010. But those 2 patterns are NOT normal...they are not likely to dominate most years. They happen about 25% of the time. The other 75% of the time we get years where the base state sucks for snow and we have to hope to scrap and claw and get lucky that maybe we get a 1-2 week window and score some snow but odds are it will mostly suck. Those years will range from total dumpster fire no snow at all to if we really get lucky end up near average. Years like 2000 and 2002 highlight the difference. 2000 we only had a one week window all winter that was a favorable pattern...and we got hit 3 times...by all 3 threats the entire winter! 2002 there was a really good blocking period in late December into early January...but one storm got suppressed and hit NC and another was just slightly too warm and hit just NW of us...and then the last threat was kinda weak sauce and only ended up a 2-3" snow (the only snow all winter). But had 1-2 of those threats in that window hit 2002 would be like 2000. Had the one really big storm in 2000 missed...we would remember that like 2002. Look at this year...there was a wave mid December that sheared out...had that amplified a little big we all get a decent snowstorm. Early January if it was just a couple degrees colder DC gets 3-5". This weekend...had the STJ wave timed up a little better maybe DC gets a decent snowstorm. Bad luck might make this year a total dumpster fire vs just a typical bad year where DC gets 8" but the bottom like is this year fits into that 75% of the time where we DONT get a -NAO or EPO/PNA ridge. What I think some take issue with wrt your posts...is that you act like EVERY winter other than 2000/2003/2010/2014/2015 are TOTAL CRAP. You acted like 2018 was garbage but your area finished above normal that year. You complained in 2016 because the HECS dry slotted you but you still ended up near average on snowfall that winter. You act like its not normal...but you say that 75% of the time! Obviously if something happens 75% of the time IT IS NORMAL!!! I am NOT saying it doesn't suck or isnt frustrating...just that getting not a lot of snow around here isnt abnormal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro,Gfs,CMC all show frozen Thurs/Fri and nobody has mentioned it . I guess everyone canceled winter? I am going to make a post wrt the pattern and threats coming up...but was busy with work this morning (SHHHH dont tell anyone) and decided to wait until after the 12z guidance finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing? What can you do? People need to feel better about things anyway they can. At the expense of whatever. Banter should be left untouched except for vulgar/profanity/attack kind of stuff. Just pointing out that (IMHO only) it currently sucks a$$. Just an observation. No solution necessary. are you talking about banter here, or in the LR thread? because i think banter should be curbed in the LR thread, otherwise its pages of everyone telling us how much this winter sucks when we already deal with that every time Ji posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don't know what "12z rubs" means. Something you season a nice steak with before putting it on the grill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You work? SHHHHHH I said to keep that on the down low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don't know what "12z rubs" means. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: are you talking about banter here, or in the LR thread? because i think banter should be curbed in the LR thread, otherwise its pages of everyone telling us how much this winter sucks when we already deal with that every time Ji posts. because he's funny. Or so I'm told 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The next time we get a winter like 2010 or 2014 I am going to complain constantly how "all this snow isn't normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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