January Banter 2020

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If I don't like it, or believe it, fake newz.

#truthiness

 

3 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I think you misspelled "FOX" there...(ducking for cover).

No joke many years ago I flipped on Fox and Friends accidentally having never actually watched it and I thought it was a parody. The way they were “acting” and exaggerating their expressions and reactions so over the top...then I realized it was REAL and it was a depressing sobering moment.  Not for any political reason. I don’t think the segment was even political. Just that it was so transparently fake yet so many people liked that kind of “news” production. I don’t think CNN lately is any better. 

[caviman2201]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

No joke many years ago I flipped on Fox and Friends accidentally having never actually watched it and I thought it was a parody. The way they were “acting” and exaggerating their expressions and reactions so over the top...then I realized it was REAL and it was a depressing sobering moment.  Not for any political reason. I don’t think the segment was even political. Just that it was so transparently fake yet so many people liked that kind of “news” production. I don’t think CNN lately is any better. 

Like this? https://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-bursts-out-laughing-as-panelists-mock-trump-and-credulous-boomer-rube-supporters/

"News" indeed.  Both channels (cable news in general) are a mockery of journalism.

[HighStakes]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Kinda...except honestly whenever it’s a borderline temp issue it almost always ends up breaking good up here. So I get the excitement of the suspense but with a payoff. If I was in the city I’d want cold smoke every time.  But those really cold waves tends to be hours of light to moderate snow. I do enjoy when it’s puking heavy wet snow bombs up here more.  Some of my favorite storms here weren’t the numerous 2’+ storms but just a good 6-10” wet snow paste job like October 2011 or the early Dec 2009 storm, not the big one, or the Feb 2016 storm that was a 33 degree 7” snowstorm up here.  November 2018 would have been higher on my list except I was stuck in Baltimore and didn’t get home until the snow was ending. That sucked. I also missed some of the really heavy wet snow that fell the first day of the 2 day 14” March 20-21 2018 storm. The second day was colder dry snow but the first day was 8” of really heavy wet snow but I only caught the last hour of the good rates. 

The early Feb. storm in 2014 was a nice wet snow event. 6-7 inches that plastered everything and then it was followed a day later by the terrible ice storm. I think Reisterstown only got 2 maybe 3 so it was an elevation event. 

We had snow cover the entire month because of the glacier that resulted from the  ice storm on top of the 6 plus inches of snow. 

The november 2014 storm on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving was another nice wet snow event.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Like this? https://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-bursts-out-laughing-as-panelists-mock-trump-and-credulous-boomer-rube-supporters/

"News" indeed.

It’s our fault. That’s obviously what viewers want to see or they wouldn’t be doing it. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

The early Feb. storm in 2014 was a nice wet snow event. 6-7 inches that plastered everything and then it was followed a day later by the terrible ice storm. I think Reisterstown only got 2 maybe 3 so it was an elevation event. 

We had snow cover the entire month because of the glacier that resulted from the  ice storm on top of the 6 plus inches of snow. 

The november 2014 storm on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving was another nice wet snow event.

Thanks. I’ve always wondered what that storm in 2014 did here. I was in Pine Grove PA. We had 8” there. One of my favorite storms. No lull.  Just 8 hours of steady heavy wet snow. That was a rare juiced up progressive wave.  I’m still kinda bummed I missed 2014. We had good snow up in PA but got fringed a lot compared to down here that winter.  A few of those good storms here I was just super cold and dry up there. How much did you get from that really late March coastal in 2014 that started as rain but then stalled and hit this area with the upper low?  

[HighStakes]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. I’ve always wondered what that storm in 2014 did here. I was in Pine Grove PA. We had 8” there. One of my favorite storms. No lull.  Just 8 hours of steady heavy wet snow. That was a rare juiced up progressive wave.  I’m still kinda bummed I missed 2014. We had good snow up in PA but got fringed a lot compared to down here that winter.  A few of those good storms here I was just super cold and dry up there. How much did you get from that really late March coastal in 2014 that started as rain but then stalled and hit this area with the upper low?  

8 inches from the march 30th storm. Unbelievable event from the upper low. 

I think I recorded 90 inches for the season. Only 10 inches less than 2010.

The most remarkable achievement from 2014 season was that I recorded at least 18 inches or more in every individual month from December through March.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, HighStakes said:

8 inches from the march 30th storm. Unbelievable event from the upper low. 

I think I recorded 90 inches for the season. Only 10 inches less than 2010.

The most remarkable achievement from 2014 season was that I recorded at least 18 inches or more in every individual month from December through March.

Yea it was good up in PA but not nearly that good. Had about 50” up there.  It must have come down pretty hard in that late March storm then because I don’t remember it being a long drawn out event. That band just missed me in PA. 

[nj2va]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

No joke many years ago I flipped on Fox and Friends accidentally having never actually watched it and I thought it was a parody. The way they were “acting” and exaggerating their expressions and reactions so over the top...then I realized it was REAL and it was a depressing sobering moment.  Not for any political reason. I don’t think the segment was even political. Just that it was so transparently fake yet so many people liked that kind of “news” production. I don’t think CNN lately is any better. 

CNN can hardly be called news nowadays. 

[HighStakes]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea it was good up in PA but not nearly that good. Had about 50” up there.  It must have come down pretty hard in that late March storm then because I don’t remember it being a long drawn out event. That band just missed me in PA. 

Heavy snow lasted 8 hours. The last couple hours lost the dynamics so even though the rates were decent there wasn't much additional accumulation.

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, nj2va said:

CNN can hardly be called news nowadays. 

None of the 3 24 hour networks are quality news. Way too much punditry. Im not sure if CNN has become as bad as Fox wrt false or misleading news because I stopped watching it. We were better off when people got their news from respected outlets and there was ONE news not alternate narratives to fit different agendas. 

[stormtracker]

Can I ask a favor?  I know this is banter and any other time, I'd say carry on.  But this latest round of discussion is teetering dangerously toward politics and I kinda want to keep that off the weather side, especially during these times.   This is the one place I (and probably a lot of others) come to seek refuge from all of that noise.  We all have political beliefs, and most people know mine, but I don't bring it up here because like I said...we want to keep this an oasis, free from that highly divisive topic.   If you want to talk politics, we do have a subforum for that (Americanpol.com).   This is not pointing the finger at any of you.  I'm just trying to head it off before this gets out of control.

Less talk about something less acrimonious, like our fantastic winter.   Wait.....maybe politics isn't such a bad topic.  

[uncletim]

58 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Can I ask a favor?  I know this is banter and any other time, I'd say carry on.  But this latest round of discussion is teetering dangerously toward politics and I kinda want to keep that off the weather side, especially during these times.   This is the one place I (and probably a lot of others) come to seek refuge from all of that noise.  We all have political beliefs, and most people know mine, but I don't bring it up here because like I said...we want to keep this an oasis, free from that highly divisive topic.   If you want to talk politics, we do have a subforum for that (Americanpol.com).   This is not pointing the finger at any of you.  I'm just trying to head it off before this gets out of control.

Less talk about something less acrimonious, like our fantastic winter.   Wait.....maybe politics isn't such a bad topic.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, uncletim said:

Lol Perfect! (are you a musician?)

[uncletim]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Perfect! (are you a musician?)

Depends on who you ask. But it's a living.

[aldie 22]

The last 3 years the most snow I saw at once was one at home and twice in La Crosse Wisconsin in April. I'm guessing at this point that's my goal again this year during my annual trip up there.

[Stormfly]

Plenty of threats if you're afraid of melting in the rain unfortunately.  There's a serious powder drought amongst us! 

[vastateofmind]

4 hours ago, uncletim said:

Well played, good sir -- perhaps literally.

[RevWarReenactor]

18 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes it has been below avg...I said you are exaggerating not that there is no truth...but you go from 0 to 60 with nothing in between ever.  

It's hard to answer how long because we just had an above average snowfall year LAST YEAR...and you seem to be tossing that aside like nothing.  We recently had a 7 year stretch of below avg snowfall every year from 2004 to 2009.  We had 6 year stretches from 1997 to 2002 and 1990 to 1995.  So we have a LONG way to go to get to that level.  As for your "4 year" thing... since this winter isn't over yet that is hypothetical only.  If we get no snow at all this year...then yes this will be the lowest 4 year snowfall period ever.  It means exactly what it means.  But all that is showing is how our climo has changed.  I think its a real trend that DC has a harder time fighting and scrumming its way to a decent snowfall total in "bad" years.  The odds of us getting a snowy winter have not gone down...we still get a snowy winter on average 25% of the time.  The difference is in the non snowy years...DC is more likely to end up with some god awful total like 3-5" than 50 years ago when DC would usually scrap its way to 10" or so even in a bad year.  So because of that...when you measure a modern period that doesn't include one of those BIG 25% years...it is likely to be the "worst" ever because our snowfall is going down in non good years.  50 years ago a bad snow year in DC was 8" and today that same pattern would likely produce 3" because of the warmer base state today and the increased urban heat island effect.  A lot of storms that would help DC get some snow in a bad year is just rain now.  But that isnt the weather hating on you...its just our new normal.  

Well, let me say, I think there is more to it than the numbers. A 2-4 inch cold snow that sticks around is worth way more than a 10 inch isolated numbers padded wet storm that doesn't stick to the street and is gone fairly quickly. (BTW we only got 4 inches from that January storm, I know I am switching locations, but it shows how isolated it was). I tend to discount last year because of the above...….now you might say "but a lot of our storms are like that". True. But the reverse could also be the case, where DC only got 5 inches of snow the entire year but it was maybe a cold January snowfall....etc. As an example, 2001-2002 was a bad year, but the Jan 2002 storm, was a good storm in a bad winter, at least in NJ. Which made it better than the garbage we have now.

2004-2009 was a better period. Sure there were a couple dud years in a row. But the other years produced decent snowfall in the prime months (vs the March metlathons).

1997-2002 was better.

1990-1995 was bad, but still better. DC must have gotten screwed back then because as a kid I remember getting tons of snow in either 1993 or 1994 in New Jersey. In fact it was my first "snow on snow" experience. I remember we got like 6 inches of snow and a week later another 6 inches.

This isn't a historically bad run for nothing. Its a bad run. We haven't had a good storm since the Blizzard. I'd have taken that dry slot numbers padded garbage and spread it out over all these years and have been 1000% happier.

But the climate change impact on our snowfall Is interesting and not something I disagree with. Its unfortunate.

[RevWarReenactor]

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor

You also were asking earlier about the odds for this year...

There have been 12 prior years where DC entered February with 1" or less of snow.  In those years DC recieved these totals the rest of winter.  0, 10.7, 1.7, .1, 8.9, 24.3, 3.1, 4, 7, 2.8, 28.6, 6.5.  The mean of those years is 8.2" and the median is 5.8".  Only 25% of those years did DC not get the 2.4" it needs to avoid your scenario so odds are against that.

There have been 23 years where DC had 2" or less going into Feb.  The mean of those years was 7.8" and median 6.5".  Only 26% of the time they didnt get the 2.4" the rest of the way.

There have been a few fluke times where DC got slammed after going into February in a similar situation as now.  But odds say the most likely result is DC gets somewhere between 4-9" the rest of the way...which will put this year into the just plain typically bad category but avoid the "worst snow period ever" thing you are using.  

Okay, fair enough. I hope those stats work in our favor. But I have my doubts.

Thanks for the information!

[Prestige Worldwide]

Grand Planetary wave alignment - JB is liking this. Lol

[anotherman]

What a shocker - JB referencing March '93.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang it man what did you just do 

I know, I know...shouldn't have made that (not too) subtle comment, but couldn't resist I suppose!

 

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Can I ask a favor?  I know this is banter and any other time, I'd say carry on.  But this latest round of discussion is teetering dangerously toward politics and I kinda want to keep that off the weather side, especially during these times.   This is the one place I (and probably a lot of others) come to seek refuge from all of that noise.  We all have political beliefs, and most people know mine, but I don't bring it up here because like I said...we want to keep this an oasis, free from that highly divisive topic.   If you want to talk politics, we do have a subforum for that (Americanpol.com).   This is not pointing the finger at any of you.  I'm just trying to head it off before this gets out of control.

Less talk about something less acrimonious, like our fantastic winter.   Wait.....maybe politics isn't such a bad topic.  

Hey...my bad @stormtracker...and my apologies.  I probably should not have replied a page or so back with my "FOX" comment, but I thought it would be lightly humorous enough without being *too* political (and it was in response to someone humorously saying "fake nuze", so the follow-up seemed like an appropriate "touche!" at the time!).  Didn't expect a bunch of related commentary to ensue...oh well.

And this is a fantastic winter!  Record breaking...errr, wait a minute, I'm thinking of 10 years ago!! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 hours ago, uncletim said:

 

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Perfect! (are you a musician?)

OK, while I definitely appreciate music, I cannot read it all that much.  What piece is that from??

(ETA:  Of course!!  From the 1st movement of Beethoven's 5th Symphony?  Considering @stormtracker issued the "warning" comment, and looking at the musical notes now in my mind.)

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

What a shocker - JB referencing March '93.

If you're playing JB bingo, that's still just the Free Space. Sorry man

[RevWarReenactor]

The "this is normal" posts in the LR thread are annoying. Nope having only .6 inches of snow to show for Dec and January is not normal. Nor is having only 8% of our climo for this time period. People are nuts. Sure on any given day or any given week, chances of a snowstorm are not high. But Going prime climo with northing to show for it, is not ordinary.

[WxUSAF]

43 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If you're playing JB bingo, that's still just the Free Space. Sorry man

I’m just waiting on “Impeach Joe Biden!!”, “Why won’t the LMSM report on how cold it was in East Siberia today!?!”, and “BOM meteogram says snowy finish to winter in Chicago!” for the win. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m just waiting on “Impeach Joe Biden!!”, “Why won’t the LMSM report on how cold it was in East Siberia today!?!”, and “BOM meteogram says snowy finish to winter in Chicago!” for the win. 

I love how he used the TNH as an excuse why it wasn’t snowing along the east coast last winter and then used it as a reason why it would snow this year. Solid reasoning. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m just waiting on “Impeach Joe Biden!!”, “Why won’t the LMSM report on how cold it was in East Siberia today!?!”, and “BOM meteogram says snowy finish to winter in Chicago!” for the win. 

 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love how he used the TNH as an excuse why it wasn’t snowing along the east coast last winter and then used it as a reason why it would snow this year. Solid reasoning. 

Damn! I didn’t have “John Bolton really is a Clintonist liberal” on my card. 

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m just waiting on “Impeach Joe Biden!!”, “Why won’t the LMSM report on how cold it was in East Siberia today!?!”, and “BOM meteogram says snowy finish to winter in Chicago!” for the win. 

I think you'll get two of those. If he dips into the Chianti for dinner one Friday, you have a shot at all 3. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think you'll get two of those. If he dips into the Chianti for dinner one Friday, you have a shot at all 3. 

Along with some fava beans??