January Banter 2020

[87storms]

On 1/24/2020 at 8:33 AM, mappy said:

yeah the mom apologized -- holidays/busy/excuse. i wasn't actually going to reply rudely but i couldn't help but shake my head at such delayed response lol 

never know what people are going through and she could be telling white lies for you all know to cover up something she didn't want to share.  i would ack the email and say it's not a big deal, move on, and chalk it up as strike one.  let her make the next move, though.

[Baltimorewx]

22 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Oh, I *wish* we could have done Pandora!  Unfortunately, when we tried to grab that one in advance when you could set up your fast pass rides online, it was already full.  And there was already a 2 hour line early in the morning for it, the day we were at Animal Kingdom.  But damn it looked awesome...maybe catch it next time!

Agree with you on the shows...not just the evening fireworks ones they do, but yeah, any of the others they do throughout the day on stage (and a nice break from walking, too!).

We waited about 2 hours and 45 mins for it last November. About an hour in line outside and 1 and a half hours inside. It worked out perfectly though because a storm was coming in the horizon and we got inside just as it started raining. Getting soaked waiting in line almost 3 hours would have been unbearable lol

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman what makes this year so f'n frustrating is there's always a glimmer or path to success showing up and it has created a lot of false hope. That's been compounding every week and there hasn't been a single actual reward (maybe 1 small reward for a select few) for enthusiasts so far and winter is closer to the finish line than the starting line. 

We talk about persistence and climo beating NWP on the regular. This year falls squarely into the catrgory. After some brief optimism in early Dec it's been nothing but persistently bad in the short/medium range. How many periods of interest have held up inside of 5 days? Once? Until something holds on inside of 5 days I'm 100% sure it won't work out. That's where my head is at. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it. I enjoy your posts and expertise. If you and PSU Hoffman ever decide on a Met career I think you’d be a great asset to either WPC or CPC with your knack for pattern recognition and analysis. 

Thank you. I think about it a lot. One of my regrets is that when I decided to go the direction of sociology and education that I didn’t just finish the meteorology degree. It would have taken another year and a lot of hard core math/physics and at 20 that felt like forever but in hindsight 20 years later...I should have done it. It’s not that I regret my education career. I love teaching. But it’s way easier to get into education later (the whole field is kind of tailored to that) than meteorology. 

Right now with a mortgage and 2 young kids going back to school just isn’t possible. Maybe in 10 or 15 years when my wife has restarted her career and we have some savings that might be an option. But by then I’ll be in the same position Bob is. I still might do it just not to have that regret in life. And meteorology is something I could see doing later in life. I can’t see myself still doing what I do now at 65+. Takes too much physical toll. 

One thing I’ve considered doing now is starting a video stream on FB or YouTube. Something like what JB does only real analysis not smoke up your arse BS.  If it developed enough viewers that could bring in some small pocket cash from ad revenues.  Any revenues at all from something I do everyday anyways would be a win imo but I doubt I could attract enough followers. 

[87storms]

the blizzard of 2016 was so awesome that i've been ok with a several year meh period of winter, but yea it's time for a snowstorm.  at minimum, hopefully next year is a more classic winter.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman what makes this year so f'n frustrating is there's always a glimmer or path to success showing up and it has created a lot of false hope. That's been compounding every week and there hasn't been a single actual reward (maybe 1 small reward for a select few) for enthusiasts so far and winter is closer to the finish line than the starting line. 

We talk about persistence and climo beating NWP on the regular. This year falls squarely into the catrgory. After some brief optimism in early Dec it's been nothing but persistently bad in the short/medium range. How many periods of interest have held up inside of 5 days? Once? Until something holds on inside of 5 days I'm 100% sure it won't work out. That's where my head is at. 

I’ve been “trying” to analyze each mostly lottery ticket level “threat” independently and not be too annoying with constant negativity but once the base state pattern showed itself around New Years I put any expectations for snow to bed.   There were a few exceptions where things suddenly flipped late, and most of those years lucked into at least 1-2 snows somewhere...but the fact was what we were facing was the worst base state we could possibly get. In every way. I even told my wife around New Years we might not get much if any snow even up here and that in that case I would take the family on a weekend trip somewhere to let the kids play in the snow.  Then we did luck our way into that one nice event up here..but even that took so much luck and was barely cold enough during the coldest week of the year even up here.  But while I continue to track in the hope of a fluke or a pattern change I haven’t expected anything. And I’ve kind of expected the long range looks to degrade because the fact is something is consistently feeding that ridge in the pac and that sets off a chain reaction of suck downstream in the high and mid latitudes. Until that forcing chances and I am skeptical it does, were in trouble. Our best chance remains late Feb into March when changing wavelengths, weakening PV and volatility change the reactions to that forcing and open the possibility of a better result. 

[ers-wxman1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank you. I think about it a lot. One of my regrets is that when I decided to go the direction of sociology and education that I didn’t just finish the meteorology degree. It would have taken another year and a lot of hard core math/physics and at 20 that felt like forever but in hindsight 20 years later...I should have done it. It’s not that I regret my education career. I love teaching. But it’s way easier to get into education later (the whole field is kind of tailored to that) than meteorology. 

Right now with a mortgage and 2 young kids going back to school just isn’t possible. Maybe in 10 or 15 years when my wife has restarted her career and we have some savings that might be an option. But by then I’ll be in the same position Bob is. I still might do it just not to have that regret in life. And meteorology is something I could see doing later in life. I can’t see myself still doing what I do now at 65+. Takes too much physical toll. 

One thing I’ve considered doing now is starting a video stream on FB or YouTube. Something like what JB does only real analysis not smoke up your arse BS.  If it developed enough viewers that could bring in some small pocket cash from ad revenues.  Any revenues at all from something I do everyday anyways would be a win imo but I doubt I could attract enough followers. 

I would certainly promote your work and try to gain some exposure for you. Thanks for all of your work on here.

[RDM]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank you. I think about it a lot. One of my regrets is that when I decided to go the direction of sociology and education that I didn’t just finish the meteorology degree. It would have taken another year and a lot of hard core math/physics and at 20 that felt like forever but in hindsight 20 years later...I should have done it. It’s not that I regret my education career. I love teaching. But it’s way easier to get into education later (the whole field is kind of tailored to that) than meteorology. 

Right now with a mortgage and 2 young kids going back to school just isn’t possible. Maybe in 10 or 15 years when my wife has restarted her career and we have some savings that might be an option. But by then I’ll be in the same position Bob is. I still might do it just not to have that regret in life. And meteorology is something I could see doing later in life. I can’t see myself still doing what I do now at 65+. Takes too much physical toll. 

One thing I’ve considered doing now is starting a video stream on FB or YouTube. Something like what JB does only real analysis not smoke up your arse BS.  If it developed enough viewers that could bring in some small pocket cash from ad revenues.  Any revenues at all from something I do everyday anyways would be a win imo but I doubt I could attract enough followers. 

PSU - we've talked about this before and I for one would be one of the first to sign up if you ever go for it with your own site.  That said, don't belittle yourself by referring to JB in any context (tic).  You are WAY above anything he could ever bring to the table relative to JBs constant "hype and recant" for profit model.  Amongst those here who also respect and appreciate what you bring to the forum, you'd have quite a following in no time.  IMHO, you may under appreciate the potential...  

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing I’ve considered doing now is starting a video stream on FB or YouTube. Something like what JB does only real analysis not smoke up your arse BS.  If it developed enough viewers that could bring in some small pocket cash from ad revenues.  Any revenues at all from something I do everyday anyways would be a win imo but I doubt I could attract enough followers. 

This is a great idea.  In the winter you could do forecasts/analysis and in the summer you could focus on educational videos (unless you’re also interested in summer weather).  You could also do videos breaking down historical snowstorms, the patterns, the effects, etc. 

[RDM]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This hr168 12z euro panel is a great visual showing how lame temps are... there's no real winter cold within 3000 miles of where we need it

So wrt the 3000 mile reference, so you're saying there still a chance!!!  (I am joking!).  Was looking at the same but didn't want to clog the main MR thread with my gibberish.  Although, at this stage seeking out some humor in all of this may be the only alternative we have.  

The other comment about the frustration in this year's models constantly teasing us in the med to LR to just go poof a few days later pretty much sums up this entire season dating back to Oct.  There were hints of an early start mid-Nov only to go poof, indications Dec would start off well - same - poof - then hints of a white Christmas, ditto...  Then we were looking at a rocking Jan, only to....   SSDD (Same Sh*t Different Day).  

Getting excited about last night's downpour about 4am pretty much sums up how dismal this year has been.  

 

 

[Inverted_Trough]

I remember watching JB on Weather World back in the mid 1990s (along with other PSU mets such as Joe Sobel, Fred Gadomski and Paul Knight).  He was my favorite Weather World forecaster.  Now he basically represents the Fox News of weather media.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

This is a great idea.  In the winter you could do forecasts/analysis and in the summer you could focus on educational videos (unless you’re also interested in summer weather).  You could also do videos breaking down historical snowstorms, the patterns, the effects, etc. 

You just described exactly what I had in mind. 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

never know what people are going through and she could be telling white lies for you all know to cover up something she didn't want to share.  i would ack the email and say it's not a big deal, move on, and chalk it up as strike one.  let her make the next move, though.

Good point. I did not reply. Letting it go. Thanks for your thoughts

[GATECH]

Happy January 25th day everyone!  Proof that miracles sometimes do happen!  Just not lately!

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/major_snowstorm_ambushes_washi.html

 

[aldie 22]

I was out during the 12z model runs...can someone call 911 for Bob and PSU...man those two had a rough afternoon...Ji being positive lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve been “trying” to analyze each mostly lottery ticket level “threat” independently and not be too annoying with constant negativity but once the base state pattern showed itself around New Years I put any expectations for snow to bed.   There were a few exceptions where things suddenly flipped late, and most of those years lucked into at least 1-2 snows somewhere...but the fact was what we were facing was the worst base state we could possibly get. In every way. I even told my wife around New Years we might not get much if any snow even up here and that in that case I would take the family on a weekend trip somewhere to let the kids play in the snow.  Then we did luck our way into that one nice event up here..but even that took so much luck and was barely cold enough during the coldest week of the year even up here.  But while I continue to track in the hope of a fluke or a pattern change I haven’t expected anything. And I’ve kind of expected the long range looks to degrade because the fact is something is consistently feeding that ridge in the pac and that sets off a chain reaction of suck downstream in the high and mid latitudes. Until that forcing chances and I am skeptical it does, were in trouble. Our best chance remains late Feb into March when changing wavelengths, weakening PV and volatility change the reactions to that forcing and open the possibility of a better result. 

Yeah, this has been a very frustrating year with regard to anything that can fail for us, found a way to fail.  We've seen a handful of good looks, sure, but they quickly disappeared.  Or a couple of models would show it, but others would indicate an unfavorable scenario.  That's different from last year, when (as I recall?) most every model and ensemble was pointing toward a very good pattern but it just never really occurred (I'm thinking of last part of Dec and into Jan, there about).

I've said this before, I know, but you've been spot-on with the warnings that if certain things lined up like some of the guidance was definitely showing, we might be in serious trouble.  Those warnings were correct, not so much because we're witnessing it real-time now, but even if we didn't, the hypothetical idea was right (if that makes sense).  Unfortunately, we've seen what seems to be just about everything (or at least too many things) work out wrong.  Perfect 988 coastal location off Hatteras and then Ocean City?  Holy cow, the entire eastern seaboard should get bombed!  Oh, wait...sorry, the antecedent airmass sucks, and we've got too much southerly flow beforehand, so it's rain all the way to the NY state line!  Nice, solid, cold-air damming situation even with a storm to our west?  We should get a decent thump to ice to drizzle!  Nope...the precip is too light as the low went way too far west, resulting in the moisture trajectory going elsewhere.  So we get 2 flakes and then light rain.

I'm not giving up hope for...something!...quite yet.  And by something, I mean not just an inch or two of slush that barely stays on the sidewalks.  No, I'm not talking about a HECS or even a near-HECS.  But I hold out hope for a general warning-level event sometime Feb/Mar, with some good cold air, that everyone will like.  I know there are some here who don't care for late-season snows (like in March), but personally, I'd be fine with a storm in the first part of March even if it's not something that will be on the ground for a long time.  Hell, we had enough times in that month within recent memory that actually were below freezing during the day, even a couple of days, around a storm.

[Deer Whisperer]

glad to see the $1000 snow blowers are out at Lowe’s 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I was out during the 12z model runs...can someone call 911 for Bob and PSU...man those two had a rough afternoon...Ji being positive lol

Ji being positive?

Dogs and cats, living together!

Mass hysteria!!

(Just for the Reaper, I should probably add "The dead rising from the grave!" line from Ghostbusters, as well!!)

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ji being positive?

Dogs and cats, living together!

Mass hysteria!!

(Just for the Reaper, I should probably add "The dead rising from the grave!" line from Ghostbusters, as well!!)

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

 

Just perfect, thanks!!! 

[PhineasC]

Just bring on spring already. 

[jaydreb]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just bring on spring already. 

Haven’t you been outside today?  It’s already here.  

[GATECH]

This Winter Sucks!  Even Canaan Valley, WV is brown!  

[H2O]

JFC. Ji needs to dial back the posting. He’s doing his manic act now. The meltdown is coming

[nj2va]

43 minutes ago, GATECH said:

This Winter Sucks!  Even Canaan Valley, WV is brown!  

I had a few good bursts of snow showers here this afternoon...0.1” before it melted.  It just started snowing again.  NWS Pitt forecasting 1-2” for Canaan & Deep Creek...hopefully we boom so you’re able to get some good snows.  

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I had a few good bursts of snow showers here this afternoon...0.1” before it melted.  It just started snowing again.  NWS Pitt forecasting 1-2” for Canaan & Deep Creek...hopefully we boom so you’re able to get some good snows.  

LOL it’s been a terrible winter out there too. No way to sugar coat it. There has almost no reason for me to chase snow out there. 

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL it’s been a terrible winter out there too. No way to sugar coat it. There has almost no reason for me to chase snow out there. 

It’s been shitty relatively speaking, no other way to describe it.  We haven’t even hit 30” when the annual is 110”.  Lake has yet to actually freeze...it came close this week though.  

However, I’m at less than 1” back at home so coming out here and getting 1-3” feels like a blizzard.  I’ll come back here next weekend if the 18z GFS plays out that way.

[87storms]

3 hours ago, mappy said:

Good point. I did not reply. Letting it go. Thanks for your thoughts

no probs.  not replying is completely valid in that case.  unfortunately, i'm not as good with that as i should be. lol

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, RDM said:

The other comment about the frustration in this year's models constantly teasing us in the med to LR to just go poof a few days later pretty much sums up this entire season dating back to Oct.  There were hints of an early start mid-Nov only to go poof, indications Dec would start off well - same - poof - then hints of a white Christmas, ditto...  Then we were looking at a rocking Jan, only to....   SSDD (Same Sh*t Different Day).

Maybe I just missed it, but with one exception, I really don't feel we got too teased.  Early December looked "meh" on the LR models, and it turned out to be exactly "meh".  I even remember people commenting on how "meh" it was. 

Then somewhere around the 10th or so, the EPS caught the Pac puke.  The GEFS fought for a few days but it still had it figured out 10+ days ahead.  And Lo it came to pass. 

Then the LR guidance foresaw there would be a brief improvement in early Jan, and Lo it came to pass.  Some of you guys got some snow.

Then the guidance saw the coming of the Pacific Doom Blob 10 - 15 days out, and Lo, it came to pass.

The one exception of course was two weeks ago where everybody was seeing a nice pattern flip into a cold EPO-based trough with maybe even a nice STJ undercutting, and we started to salivate.  Then, apparently demotiviated by the Raven's loss, the models decided to change tack and call for a Canadian ridge cutting all cold air off from us.  And Lo it came to pass (or is in the process of coming to pass).

Other than that, the models have just tended to correctly foresee a parade of failures and disappointments. 

[wawarriors4]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

You’re not kidding. Grew up near Scranton, PA. Was 7 for 1993 and 10 for 1996. In high school for PD2. Then I decided to go to school in San Antonio and love there for a year after school (2004-2009), it was a great time, but dang did I miss big east coast snow storms. Got a job and moved to DC in August 2009, wow what a year to move to DC. Lived in Philly for 12/2010 and 1/2011. And now I find my self outside Fredericksburg. 2016 was great, but man oh man, I cannot wait for the next one. That’s what keeps me going, knowing eventually everything will line up and we will get buried again. You’re absolutely right, you can never get enough!