psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Thanks! No real plans, but that all sounds great. Thanks for the sugestions! I am seeing now that those areas you mentioned will probably do better so I will definitely have to take a trip. Gettysburg BB sounds awesome, that would have been my choice if they were getting snow. Vermont still looks good overall... These ratio's can sometimes be a bit high... Rutland is in a valley and will get less than the mountains around...but that is true of almost all the towns. I would expect maybe 4-8" in Rultand...with 8-12 up near the ski resorts. But like I said its only a few miles up to Killington from town. Another option...there seems to be a consistent area of enhanced snowfall in southern Vermont just south of where you will be due to added moisture from the flow over the lakes. You could take the drive south on 7 to Manchester or Bennington. Manchester is about 30 miles or 45 mins (in good weather) south of Rutland. I know there are some shops and restaurants in Manchester. I haven't spent a lot of time there though...but it has some low key tourist attractions. I know next to nothing about Bennington, only ever passed through on my way to ski resorts. It isn't close enough to them to stay there. But both will likely do better due to being under that enhanced band. Stratton Ski resort which is at 3900 feet in south central Vermont looks to be a likely jack zone. There are some little towns in and around Stratton up in the mountains there also. The good news is I have been in Vermont during some epic snowstorms...2 ft plus...and you can get around. Because the ski resorts are important to their economy they keep the roads pretty good even in the middle of a blizzard. By their standards a 6-12" storm is NOTHING so if you want to get out and about you will be able to get around...just don't rush and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: The Baltimore / DC tv markets really have no good on air mets. It's mostly hype and flashy maps. Doug Hill? Bob Ryan (even though he retired/is gone)? Topper Shutt? A lot of good mets I can think of off the top of my head in the DC metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Doug Hill? Bob Ryan (even though he retired/is gone)? Topper Shutt? A lot of good mets I can think of off the top of my head in the DC metro I'm going to respectfully disagree with you on those folks. Perhaps it's because I was fortunate to have WGAL out of Lancaster for so many years and that team is my benchmark. Their graphics package is excellent, the forecasts aren't hyperbole and they all have good on camera presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: The Baltimore / DC tv markets really have no good on air mets. It's mostly hype and flashy maps. lol i'm pretty sure nothing and nobody is ever good enough for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: But this isn't actually how its portrayed. That's the core issue I think. When people here see "a snowy look" or " a lot of potential hits on the 15 day outlook" etc......they tend to think its more than this. Especially in a heavily moderated thread which says to people "this is important". While the knowledge and science behind it are amazing. Its end output is basically complete junk most of the time. Maybe there need to be a disclaimer "Hey guys, this stuff we are talking about is actually garbage and probably won't happen. DC usually gets about 10 inches of snow a year if they are really lucky". I can understand that misconception. Let me explain how I analyze long range patterns... First of all there is a difference between macro and micro. Long range is macro...short is micro. I tend to look at things in 5 day chunks. Day 1-5 we tend to have pretty good reliability on the longwave pattern. Meso scale details can still change...but the broad pattern is pretty much known and we are analyzing specifics that might shift small scale things (those matter a LOT to snow...like where the back edge is, where banding sets up, will the track of the SLP shift 50 miles..) but are not really a longwave pattern issue. Day 6-10 the longwave pattern is somewhat known...but can shift around somewhat. Of course that means identifying specific synoptic level details within this range is risky...we can start to make educated guesses about what the small scale details MIGHT be in this range but they are open to shifts. Take this weekend storm for instance...the guidance nailed the general look from 8 or 9 days out...but exactly where the mid level winds were directed due to the exact sharpness of the ridge/trough alingment shited around about 100 miles. That shifted the potential for a thump snow from MD to central PA. That is NOT a significant shift from 8 days away! On the macro level the guidance was great. On the micro is was off 75 miles or so...but that is about as good as can be expected in this time range. We are looking for generalities here not specifics. Day 11-15...the outer edge of where we can glean any meaningful pattern clues...only looking at very macro level things...clues to the basic configuration of main pattern drivers...knowing that even that will shift around some. This is just seeing if there are any clues that some favorable features like an EPO ridge, -NAO, -AO might be likely. Any micro level details are completely impossible to tell at this range. Now how I apply my snowfall expectations to any 5 day chunk. In the last 30 years BWI has had 29 warning level (5") events during the period from December 1 to March 10th. That is when the vast majority of our snowfall happens. Odds are greatly reduced before and after. Obviously odds shift some within that window but not as drastically as outside it. That is 100 days a season or 20 5 day chunks. Over 30 years that is 600 5 day periods. That means...with 29 warning level events...the odds of a 5" snowstorm during any 5 day period from Dec 1-Mar 10 is 4.8%. That is our base state...about a 5% chance of a significant snowstorm. Using 5" as significant...I picked that because it is warning level. This is arbitrary but you get the point. So when I say things look "good" it could mean a 20% chance of a significant snow. Think about it...that is 4 times the "normal" odds of a snowstorm. That is good compared to normal. But 20% still means there is an 80% chance we do NOT get a snowstorm. Even in our absolute best looks from 10 days out...I would NEVER put our odds of a snowstorm above about 40% and even that number is reserved for the absolute best looks we have ever seen from 10 days like before the January 2016 or February 2010 storms. There is way too much at the micro level that can go wrong that you will not be able to see from that range. Plus...think about right now. This area will see "some snow" just not a snowstorm. But some places will get 1-2" tomorrow...and not far away north will get 3-6". And some places will get snow snow showers next week on the NW flow. But we are just missing a "real" snowstorm by 75 miles or so. The details that determined that could not be seen from 10 days out. The micro level details that make the difference between a snow in central PA and one here is not going to show up on a general longwave pattern look from day 10. On top of that there are other things that make recognizing a good pattern for snow different from "its gonna snow". The pattern could flat out shift from day 10-15. We know that. But even if it doesn't... not everywhere in the area will get snow. A storm could just miss...when you get missed by 50 miles that isnt bad pattern its bad luck. When the storm misses by 500 miles thats bad pattern!. Finally here are some examples of why you cannot pick out a snowstorm at long range, only identify patterns that increase our odds.... Here are two examples, one worked and one just missed us to the north with a 4-8" snowfall... This one was a 4-8" snowstorm in our area This one was a rainstorm Notice the scale is not the same for both...if you normalize the scale the key features are even more similar. But there are SLIGHT differences. This was a WAA setup in both cases with a nice 50/50 to lock in confluence to the north. But the one that worked the trough axis was SLIGHTLY further east...and the ridging in the east was slightly less...although the scale makes it look more different than it really was. Do you really think those slight differences can be picked up at day 10+? From long range both of those storms would look identical. Not until within 5 days would we see the level of details to determine that one was a 4-8" snowstorm for DC and the other was a snowstorm in PA and rain for DC. Here is an even more drastic example.... One of these was a big rainstorm nothing burger...and one of the worst depressing storms in history...and the others were all HECS snowstorms...can you tell which is the bust? Take a guess...and tell me why you think that one was rain and the other 4 were all historic snowstorms in our area? A B C D E The bottom line is those all look great....and the differences minor...and from long range the very insignificant micro level issues that caused one of those to be a nothing burger vs a historic snowstorm would not be discernible. At long range I am just looking to see if the basic pattern structure is favorable (or more favorable than the typical crappy 5% chance) for a snowstorm. The details that determine our fate come in the day 1-5 range. I hope this helps wrt how I look at and analyze patterns. Curious what your, or anyone elses guess (dont cheat and look them up) is with those storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's really sad how low the maturity level is on these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's really sad how low the maturity level is on these forums. no offense, but i've never heard someone bitch about an advisory before. usually everyone is whining how they didn't get a watch and got an advisory instead. youre questioning seems to be petty and immature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: no offense, but i've never heard someone bitch about an advisory before. usually everyone is whining how they didn't get a watch and got an advisory instead. youre questioning seems to be petty and immature. I asked a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I asked a question. Yes, but even after you were told why it was issued, you had to go and pull out the NWS definition as to prove a red tagged met wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Yes, but even after you were told why it was issued, you had to go and pull out the NWS definition as to prove a red tagged met wrong. Their answer was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Their answer was wrong. See, you're doing it again. There can be advisories issued on weekends where there aren't rush hours to deal with. many areas WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP, and an advisory is the lowest thing that can be issued to give people a heads up. I'm not sure why you are saying a METEOROLOGIST WHO KNOWS WHAT HES TALKING ABOUT is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Some bizarre (to me) weather out here in Colorado. 42 degrees, a random thunderstorm popped up and the biggest graupel I've ever seen is raining down. It's like raining Dippin Dots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, mappy said: See, you're doing it again. There can be advisories issued on weekends where there aren't rush hours to deal with. many areas WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP, and an advisory is the lowest thing that can be issued to give people a heads up. I'm not sure why you are saying a METEOROLOGIST WHO KNOWS WHAT HES TALKING ABOUT is wrong. Just as you requested with me during my manic attack a few years ago, and considering the fact that I can't hide your comments, please don't respond to my posts going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 .... ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 This is weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, H2O said: This is weird 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The first rule of fight club... @stormtracker can we get some old school mortal combat fatalities codes up in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 OK, I'm going to apologize here in the appropriate place (banter!), for perhaps perpetuating an ongoing argument some where having with @Mersky in the medium range discussion. I should have probably copied and posted those in here instead, and perhaps I should not have engaged the argument so much in the first place. But I'll admit, I was a bit upset at some of the things being said. Oh well, guess we're all a bit sour with the latest forecast and ensemble indications. At any rate, if mods want to move any of that into here instead, feel free. And again, apologies...I normally do not go into it like that with people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Talk about a tummy tuck that went wrong. You gotta stay away from those out of license surgeons. As always ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: OK, I'm going to apologize here in the appropriate place (banter!), for perhaps perpetuating an ongoing argument some where having with @Mersky in the medium range discussion. I should have probably copied and posted those in here instead, and perhaps I should not have engaged the argument so much in the first place. But I'll admit, I was a bit upset at some of the things being said. Oh well, guess we're all a bit sour with the latest forecast and ensemble indications. At any rate, if mods want to move any of that into here instead, feel free. And again, apologies...I normally do not go into it like that with people. Nothing you said was inappropriate 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Mersky kinda sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Well, there’s always a Friday night cocktail to soothe the crappy winter blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Mersky kinda sucks. Well, you never mince words. Consistency. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cuatto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 So no guesses on the storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Do the dew . Good luck tomorrow up our way. I'll be in DC for a big gymnastics competition for my oldest daughter. Hopefully I get snowed in or encapsulated in ice . I might catch the beginning. I'm leaving at 9 Good luck to her! I’m going to Gettysburg with my wife tomorrow for the day/night. I won’t be on here for a while. Mersky can handle things while I’m gone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So no guesses on the storms? I’ll take a stab...is B Boxing Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’ll take a stab...is B Boxing Day? Good guess but no. B was a HECS. Jan 96. I’ll disclose soon if no one else wants to take a stab at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 B was my guess, so if not that, then E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Good guess but no. B was a HECS. Jan 96. I’ll disclose soon if no one else wants to take a stab at it. Not sure I would call that a good guess but thanks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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