January Banter 2020

[jewell2188]

Pretty bad we have more dense fog advisories versus winter storm watches/warnings lol

[aldie 22]

Halfway through January and a pretty subpar winter and at least Ji is still funny

[WinterWxLuvr]

Will the day ever come?

[aldie 22]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Will the day ever come?

It's umpossible to know 

[Rhino16]

This stuff just keeps getting pushed back...(Can’t really expect anything from multiple days out) The chance for snow this weekend in my area seems to be decreasing each time, The stuff on the ensembles just keeps getting pushed back, and promising good things, I was hopeful for February, and I’m retaining some, but It’s not much... 

[RevWarReenactor]

"Looks good in 10-15 days"= In 10-15 days it will be a terrible pattern and we will say it looks good in 10-15 days.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges? 

You know, it's kind of funny that I recall seeing the actual Pepperidge Farm ad that this is parodying!!  (Now, get off my lawn!!) 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Crap, I riled up the weenies with the Pepperidge Farm thing/wording. 

@WxWatcher007 I prefer cash but a blank check will suffice, ty

[RevWarReenactor]

I am going to chase Saturday to Albany. Even if its only 1-3 inches (I am hoping more like 3-6)......it will be nice to see some damn snow for a change.

 

 

[RevWarReenactor]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Noooo

Don’t stick yourself in the valley for this one. Either try to get close to the Tug Hill area or go just north or west of Albany to higher elevations. That’d be a much more worthwhile experience IMO. Albany will snow, but not to the extent of those areas.

Thanks for the map! A journey further northwest looks to be in order.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Crap, I riled up the weenies with the Pepperidge Farm thing/wording. 

@WxWatcher007 I prefer cash but a blank check will suffice, ty

I thought the Reaper only deals with electronic transfers now!! 

Checks?  Cash??  I thought those went the way of putting 2 spaces after a period at the end of a sentence!  (Which I still do...so again, get off my lawn! haha!)

[RevWarReenactor]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d hold on booking a non-refundable room for now—there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty on where the max stripe ends up. Hard to do wrong at elevation though. 

Thanks! yeah, haven't booked yet. Just kind of zeroing in on a location. The problem with going way up into elevated areas is that there might not be hotels. But I am researching right now.

I'll probably wait until tomorrow or Friday to book.

[RevWarReenactor]

I am not necessarily after that one spot that is going to do the best in this storm. I just want to see a decent snowfall. But still, if traveling to an elevated area means quite a bit more, I shall do so.

[aldie 22]

We need these now I guess

[H2O]

y'all can thank me for PSU making good posts.  

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Noooo

Don’t stick yourself in the valley for this one. Either try to get close to the Tug Hill area or go just north or west of Albany to higher elevations. That’d be a much more worthwhile experience IMO. Albany will snow, but not to the extent of those areas.

When I said Quebec I meant QUEBEC...yall thought I was kidding.  

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks! yeah, haven't booked yet. Just kind of zeroing in on a location. The problem with going way up into elevated areas is that there might not be hotels. But I am researching right now.

I'll probably wait until tomorrow or Friday to book.

places in Vermont just had some snow, and are getting 2-4" before this event...then will get more.  So if you are going just for snow...going another couple hours to see a LOT more snow makes sense imo.  

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor keep an eye on today’s trends but based on recent runs VT might be your best bet to see a lot of snow otg and not worry about mixing. 

This total includes a 3-6” storm the next 48 hours but still. 

Im using the op because the kuchera shows the ratios in VT will be good.  The 10–1 maps show they get 3-5” from the weekend storm but it’s more likely to be 4-8” or more plus they have snow on the ground already. And there are lodging options near the ski resorts. It’s only another 1-2 hours from Albany.  Check out lodging near Killington, Okemo, Stratton.  Stay out of the valleys like Rutland, they get a nasty shadow effect. I’ve been there when Killington gets 20” and Rutland had 4-5”. 

That snow south of Albany is mixed with ice and subject to further cuts if this keeps trending north. And those places have no snow currently either. 

Just my 2 cents. Good luck!

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor with it being a holiday weekend if the resorts areas are booked you can still easily drive up from Rutland area. 20-30 mins. They keep the roads good. And there is stuff to do up at Killington. Some hopping bars with live music.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

6 inches+ is legit. Winter storm Warning and all the rest.

Doesn't even have to stick around long.

The only exception to the above would be a March meltathon. No street stickage, bad sun angle, and maybe we had 6 inches on one part of the grass for about 10 minutes and then it stopped snowing and we had 2 inches. (we've done a lot of these)

But do you know how rare what you just described is???

Ok so in the last 30 years there were only 18 storms of 6" or more at DCA.  That is an average of 3 every 5 years...we have had 2 in the last 5 years so we are only 1 storm short of "normal".  But the truth is those storms come in chunks during rare winters where the pattern is great.  4 times in the last 30 years DCA had multiple 6" snowstorms in a single year.  3 times in 1996, 3 times in 2002-3, 4 times in 2009-10, and 2 times in 2013-14.  In the other 26 winters DCA had 6 total.  So basically once or twice a decade we get a super rare great snowy winter where we are likely to get multiple 6" snowstorms....and the rest of the time we are very likely not to have any at all and if we get one its just a fluke, and only happens once every few years.  

Again...the problem is everytime we get a winter like the 26/30 crap years where we either get one lonely big snow or none  you call it an anomaly when in reality that is just our normal.  Our normal is crap.  

BTW if you eliminate the 6" storms that happened in March or were barely 6" followed by rain or an immediate warm up that melted it all within 24 hours DC only had 13 of those storms in 30 years...

And if we take out 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 as the 4  "fluke" snowy years...only 3 such storms in the other 26 years.  

Basically, to summarize...every 7 years or so we get a fluke winter like 1996 or 2010 where its cold and snowy and we have results more typical of New England than DC...and in those years we tend to get multiple snowstorms like you describe. The other 80% of the time... we go several years between such storms...and when they do happen they are often flawed with a warmup right after or happen in March.  What you are describing is a very rare thing in DC.  

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If Gefs is right this area stays mostly BN thru the 31st . Hopefully leaving a couple SECS or a MECS in its wake to shovel . And to freeze the mud mess in my yard .

I personally consider it a good thing that the  GFS and now Euro are showing a fairly large storm consistently in the same general timeframe...regardless of precip type

[RevWarReenactor]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor with it being a holiday weekend if the resorts areas are booked you can still easily drive up from Rutland area. 20-30 mins. They keep the roads good. And there is stuff to do up at Killington. Some hopping bars with live music.  

Thanks so much for the information and maps! Its a huge help! I am  really getting excited for the chase and to experience some winter,. I think the Rutland area might be my place to go. Although I might adjust if there are any significant changes.  I am comparing forecasts and its worth the little bit extra driving passed Albany into VT. I don't mind driving. I've adjusted. 7 hour drives to me are like nothing.

It will be awesome for a number of reasons, below 0 temps Friday night (which I've only experience one other time in my life) Snow already on the ground, and then more. It will be a good weekend for sure. Some time to just clear my head.

Again, thanks for the advice and help!

[H2O]

Don't run any red lights @RevWarReenactor

[RevWarReenactor]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But do you know how rare what you just described is???

Ok so in the last 30 years there were only 18 storms of 6" or more at DCA.  That is an average of 3 every 5 years...we have had 2 in the last 5 years so we are only 1 storm short of "normal".  But the truth is those storms come in chunks during rare winters where the pattern is great.  4 times in the last 30 years DCA had multiple 6" snowstorms in a single year.  3 times in 1996, 3 times in 2002-3, 4 times in 2009-10, and 2 times in 2013-14.  In the other 26 winters DCA had 6 total.  So basically once or twice a decade we get a super rare great snowy winter where we are likely to get multiple 6" snowstorms....and the rest of the time we are very likely not to have any at all and if we get one its just a fluke, and only happens once every few years.  

Again...the problem is everytime we get a winter like the 26/30 crap years where we either get one lonely big snow or none  you call it an anomaly when in reality that is just our normal.  Our normal is crap.  

BTW if you eliminate the 6" storms that happened in March or were barely 6" followed by rain or an immediate warm up that melted it all within 24 hours DC only had 13 of those storms in 30 years...

And if we take out 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2014 as the 4  "fluke" snowy years...only 3 such storms in the other 26 years.  

Basically, to summarize...every 7 years or so we get a fluke winter like 1996 or 2010 where its cold and snowy and we have results more typical of New England than DC...and in those years we tend to get multiple snowstorms like you describe. The other 80% of the time... we go several years between such storms...and when they do happen they are often flawed with a warmup right after or happen in March.  What you are describing is a very rare thing in DC.  

Wow, these are depressing stats. But thanks for providing them.  I guess I just didn't realize how rare it was. I figured a 6 inch snowstorm, was kind of a once a year type thing on average to be very honest. I can even remember as a kid hearing a documentary on JFK that talked about how rare his inauguration eve snowstorm was...and I was thinking, snow in DC in January isn't rare. But obviously it is.   I can't really argue with the stats of that not being true.

I guess it just is what it is. I will have to be content with chasing and moving to a better area for snow in the future (My location is about the same climo as DC).

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor

12z euro update 

this is from the storm the next 48 hours 

this is from the weekend.

VT still looks like the place to be given all that.  Way more lodging than the areas in NY they get blasted. You can see how Albany is stuck in the screw zone SW of there. The PA stuff is mix to ice to rain...and not as much a sure thing. It’s going to be a great ski weekend up in VT that’s for sure!  

Speaking of...last night my shoulder was killing me from an injury I got skiing at Tremblant 20 years ago in College.  I’m getting old...

 

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor

North Conway NH is another good option.  Lots to do there. Near Mt Washington. More lodging options. This weekend is likely to be very booked up. But it’s Further away.  

Burlington VT won’t get as much snow as the mountains but it’s a really awesome town. 

Dito Manchester VT. 

 

[RevWarReenactor]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor

12z euro update 

this is from the storm the next 48 hours 

this is from the weekend.

VT still looks like the place to be given all that.  Way more lodging than the areas in NY they get blasted. You can see how Albany is stuck in the screw zone SW of there. The PA stuff is mix to ice to rain...and not as much a sure thing. It’s going to be a great ski weekend up in VT that’s for sure!  

Speaking of...last night my shoulder was killing me from an injury I got skiing at Tremblant 20 years ago in College.  I’m getting old...

 

Thanks for breaking out the 2 events! So do you really think areas of Vermont are looking at an additional 9 inches from the Saturday/Sunday event? Or is the Euro going high? Maybe its too early to call. Because honestly. I was going to be happy with 3-6 inches.....those numbers look pretty amazing.

I will give those other areas in VT a look as well, quite a few good options. But I now agree that Albany is not a good one, it will snow, but Albany looks VTs Washington DC, at least for this storm. Its worth the extra 2 hour ish drive.

 

Thanks again and good luck with the shoulder.!!Old injuries are weird like that, I still have pain from a wrist injury when I was 11 years old.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m partial to upstate NY but VT looks nice. I like the middle of nowhere lol.

Lake Placid isnt a bad option either

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks for breaking out the 2 events! So do you really think areas of Vermont are looking at an additional 9 inches from the Saturday/Sunday event? Or is the Euro going high? Maybe its too early to call. Because honestly. I was going to be happy with 3-6 inches.....those numbers look pretty amazing.

I will give those other areas in VT a look as well, quite a few good options. But I now agree that Albany is not a good one, it will snow, but Albany looks VTs Washington DC, at least for this storm. Its worth the extra 2 hour ish drive.

 

Thanks again and good luck with the shoulder.!!Old injuries are weird like that, I still have pain from a wrist injury when I was 11 years old.

With a track this far north yes...The mountains in Vermont are also aligned good to get some upslope snows on Sunday after the low goes by and winds shift to the west.  Might tack on another few inches in the higher elevations.  

Killington area might be all booked up.  Forgot its a holiday weekend.  This weekend gets crazy busy up there. 

Burlington VT is a really awesome town...and only 30 min drive to Stowe which will get absolutely blasted with snow the next few days from both systems and the upslope on Sunday.  Trust me...they average about 300" of snow for a reason!  

Lake Placid NY is another good option...really nice town, Olympic venues to check out.  

North Conway NH is another good option more likely to have last minute lodging (because they have so damn much of it) but its further away.  

[NorthArlington101]

Now that I'm back in Charlottesville the snow hole has returned to the area. 

(I realize this map is unrealistic)