WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I’d imagine the March 93 storm showed itself early, and with now ancient models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, JakkelWx said: I think this winter is the winter that we just don't get lucky at all in my woods. I'll come back to this post and expose myself in a few weeks if we get a HECS. Are you a central virginian too? It sucks down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: How did things go when i did the dec 2009 and both feb 2010 storm threads? Can't recall much detail about that winter, must have slipped my mind. Any stats on how it was for the area offhand?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Are you a central virginian too? It sucks down here! Eastern MD. Old bay is only good if there's old bay on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 This isn’t fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d imagine the March 93 storm showed itself early, and with now ancient models. As I recall at the time, the global medium range model (LFM, limited fine mesh!!) of that day had it about a week in advance. And it was being widely discussed 5-7 days out in terms of its potential and severity. It was heralded as a numerical model success, for good reason. That system was similar to other "big dogs" like Feb. 2010 or Jan. 2016 (I assume Jan. 1996 too?), where the synoptic setup was just so blatantly clear, and models tend to grab onto those early and not waver much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 We spend the entire run after Saturday with below 0 850s EXCEPT for the 12 hours it’s precipitating...and it’s not a cutter..it’s a 984 bomb off Ocean City. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This isn’t fair Huh? OK, seriously...WTF is going on there? I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that. Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This isn’t fair WTAF?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: WTAF?? Cold bias 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Huh? OK, seriously...WTF is going on there? I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that. Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all. Exactly right. A northern stream shortwave/low draws mild air on return flow. Thing is... models can't get the NS right 3-5 days in advance. Last thing I'm worried about on fantasy op panels is a NS shortwave. It may end up happening but no f'n way the gfs just "figured it out" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Huh? OK, seriously...WTF is going on there? I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that. Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all. It actually trended better. But still too much ridging in front and not enough behind so the mid level trough goes neutral too far west and floods us with mild air on the southerly flow ahead of it. Strengthen the ridge to the west and weaken the ridge to the east and it’s suddenly a big snow. Like I said yesterday it’s a cows fart in the right direction from a snowstorm. But gotta laugh at that. That would be painful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gfs finally has a more classic setup. That's the good news. Bad news is it's 13 days away and will be gone in 6 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Exactly right. A northern stream shortwave/low draws mild air on return flow. Thing is... models can't get the NS right 3-5 days in advance. Last thing I'm worried about on fantasy op panels is a NS shortwave. It may end up happening but no f'n way the gfs just "figured it out" Yup...well, that just figures! But you're correct, it's not worth worrying about how the GFS is handling a NS shortwave that far out...if there even is a NS wave by then in that precise location. Just now, psuhoffman said: It actually trended better. But still too much rushing in front and not enough behind so the mid level trough goes neutral too far west and floods us with mild air on the southerly flow ahead of it. Strengthen the ridge to the west and weaken the ridge to the east and it’s suddenly a big snow. Like I said yesterday it’s a cows fart in the right direction from a snowstorm. But gotta laugh at that. That would be painful. Butterfly wings flapping is a prettier image, but cow's fart works too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just realized on weather.us that it has the icon and it shows ice on the significant weather parameter. I think most everyone knows that on TT it doesn't differentiate between ice and plain rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Eastern MD. Old bay is only good if there's old bay on it. Okay, Don’t hurt me, or do, but I’m not a huge fan of Old Bay... Maybe because I haven’t tried putting Old bay on my Old Bay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Screw 984 lows east of OC...we like our snow with a low cutting hundreds of miles NW of us!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Alrighty, back to Calculus... See weather? I’m behaving! Also, Question: What is the different on TT between “MSLP and Precip” and “Radar (Rain/Frozen)? The Radar one shows snow in places where there would be rain on the MSLP map. The Precip Radar map also looks a tad different... maybe smoother? Or less abundant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Alrighty, back to Calculus... See weather? I’m behaving! Also, Question: What is the different on TT between “MSLP and Precip” and “Radar (Rain/Frozen)? The Radar one shows snow in places where there would be rain on the MSLP map. The Precip Radar map also looks a tad different... maybe smoother? Or less abundant? Radar is an instantaneous snapshot of precipitation. The MSLP panel includes 6 hours of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Dang my Twins just signed Josh Donaldson...ok I'm ready for baseball since winter wont start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The August fog correlation says no big snowstorms at all this winter here because I don't remember seeing much fog during August last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The August fog correlation says no big snowstorms at all this winter here because I don't remember seeing much fog during August last year Plenty of January fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Plenty of January fog. This means plenty of snows for June, July and August. Get your snowblowers ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I have to admit that I am very discouraged. I know that it is too premature to give up hope completely (not yet Reaper), but I cannot escape the feeling that this upcoming respite is really just a relaxation of the crappy pattern, the mirror image of a January thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs finally has a more classic setup. That's the good news. Bad news is it's 13 days away and will be gone in 6 hours. Probably nearing time we should start tracking another President's Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Screw 984 lows east of OC...we like our snow with a low cutting hundreds of miles NW of us!!! We need more windows. Windows produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Is the new strategy to wait until a threat has gone to crap on the models before we open the storm thread? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We need more windows. Windows produce. How’s the storm next week looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Time for a miracle run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Time for a miracle run. There’s always one that brings everyone back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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