wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 ULL snow has started, 33.4°.. Not expecting much during the day, NWS has 2"-4" tonight and 1"-3" tomorrow morning, guess we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 First glance at next weekend features stronger low slowly churning toward northern Ontario and Hudson Bay while another low lifts along the east coast. GFS seems to be outlier with the east coast low being the stronger one (somewhat supported by GEFS) while the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble is stronger with the Ontario low and has a weaker wave lifting along the east Coast (somewhat supported by the Canadian). WPC hand drawn progs look more like the ECMWF than any other model. Overall went with slightly warmer temps compared to NBM and placed a broadbrushed mix of rain and snow in there for a starting point, though if the ECMWF idea verified, probably would be more rain than snow. Plenty of time to sort this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Sometimes I wonder what kbuf Sees lol Wpc looks like the 0z gfs not the European..They really do hate snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: My apologies Tug as I was WEST not North of Syracuse, Somewhere between Rochester and Syracuse it got nasty and was snowing pretty good , I think I was near a town called Ferndale . The route was 390 to 81 to 86 to 17 my bad brother sorry about that I was tired when I posted last night and I still am lol No problem. I was just trying to figure it out. I love when people share their travel reports across NY. I like to do so myself. It sounds like you were probably somewhere around Weedsport when you hit the snow. From reports, there must have been an enhanced area of precipitation that was heavy enough to flip to snow over the northern Finger Lakes/Southwestern Oswego county. I am curious as to whether my area in Northwest Onondaga got it. I wasn't around to see it. Glad you made it home safely! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 We all know there will be some sort of rain involved next week. Has there been one clean system this year? That part of the pattern has not changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Central NY is not a good area for synoptic snows, at least in my opinion..They tend to go to far west or east, hardly ever in between.. How often do tracks go over the Appalachian mountains? Very rarely, and that's pretty much the track we need.. West of the mountains we torch, east of the mountains we are fringed, especially up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 We do best with hybrid/synoptic systems, always relying on the lake/wrap around regime lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 It's deja Vu as models are starting to miss the phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It's deja Vu as models are starting to miss the phase.. I wouldn’t worry about the long range ICON. GEFS and EPS still look pretty good. We will see. Small window of opportunity for this to phase perfectly with indicies transiently favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Potent little northern stream disturbance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Still not great but better..Epo seems to be relaxing a little during this time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Potent little northern stream disturbance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Central NY is not a good area for synoptic snows, at least in my opinion..They tend to go to far west or east, hardly ever in between.. How often do tracks go over the Appalachian mountains? Very rarely, and that's pretty much the track we need.. West of the mountains we torch, east of the mountains we are fringed, especially up here.. CNY can get some significant synoptic systems. Most depend on favorable upper air support most notably a negatively tilted H500 trof. I remember this storm in early January 1994. A band of extremely heavy snow came off the Atlantic transported northwest by a negatively tilted trough. It reached Syracuse around noon and deposited 9.5 inches of snow in 2 hours. Employers thought they were doing the right thing by dismissing employees during the height of the storm which resulted in people getting stuck on the interstates for hours. Changes were made in early dismissal procedures after that storm. There have been many other instance of Syracuse being hit hard by synoptic systems (Superstorm of 93, VD 2007, post Christmas storm 1997 for example). It seems that recently they have been harder to come by (although we did get 2 feet in mid March 2017). https://www.syracuse.com/vintage/2016/01/readers_remember_the_blizzard.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 Picked up 1.2" overnight, grass is nearly covered. If overnights precip was snow, I like my chances a little more for tonight. RGEM has 5-6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gfs was meh at 12z, just some light northern stream crap while the southern stream misses us to the SE. The Canadian is coming in with a monster for the coast verbatim..Some lighter snows for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 A lot of synoptic systems have missed us to the SE on the various models lately, which I knew would happen lol We'll go from one extreme to another.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: A lot of synoptic system misses us to the SE in the models lately, which I knew would happen lol We'll go from one extreme to the next. good thing is lakes are open for buisness for you guys still. lets hope something can trigger them to lightup. wish P burgh benefited from the lakes haha. very rare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 Still no arctic air for the lakes to make much of a difference. You need relatively cold temps to get a lake response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Looks like we're going to have to continue relying on the northern stream to provide us with weak systems that deposit minimal snow and mild air. Indices........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Something like this would work lol Behind northern stream disturbances and cold fronts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Went past Binghamton a little bit ago on our way back to the Cuse. What a snowhole Bing is! Glad I didn't move there. Lol. Always has the least amount of snow during our travels back and forth. Their airport on top of the mountain doesn't accurately portray their climate. I guess the same can be said about many NWS obs sites. Going past Marathon now where solid snow cover has commenced, along with snow showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: No problem. I was just trying to figure it out. I love when people share their travel reports across NY. I like to do so myself. It sounds like you were probably somewhere around Weedsport when you hit the snow. From reports, there must have been an enhanced area of precipitation that was heavy enough to flip to snow over the northern Finger Lakes/Southwestern Oswego county. I am curious as to whether my area in Northwest Onondaga got it. I wasn't around to see it. Glad you made it home safely! Thanks THM, I don't post on here often and I lurk in the other New York thread with the occasional post here and there. As far as yesterday all I can tell you that it was coming down / big flakes at a good clip and everything went very white without a plow or salt spreader heading my way. On the West side there were a few plows and spreaders spotted but nada heading East. That was the worst part of my ride on that stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just booked my flight to New Zealand, April 10-26! That country is expensive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just booked my flight to New Zealand, April 10-26! That country is expensive. Probably Farthest place in the world that you can go from New York---wife is going in March we paid = Newark to Honolulu $319 staying there a few days then from there to Aukland $650 thats 1 way. The price coming back is slightly cheaper as it is direct without the stop to Honolulu ----total was $1700 and change---enjoy BW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Something like this would work lol Behind northern stream disturbances and cold fronts.. Fun for u but literally no one else. It continues... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Probably Farthest place in the world that you can go from New York---wife is going in March we paid = Newark to Honolulu $319 staying there a few days then from there to Aukland $650 thats 1 way. The price coming back is slightly cheaper as it is direct without the stop to Honolulu ----total was $1700 and change---enjoy BW I was going to go in March too, but it was a little cheaper in April. Usually we drive to Toronto for International flights and it's much cheaper, but the difference was so small to NZL that it didn't seem worth the extra stop. We only stop once to Auckland in Chicago. What's your itinerary? I haven't booked anything else except i know i want to spend most of the trip on the South Island. It was $3300 for 2 people round trip. Only 1 stop on the way there and 2 stops on the way back and the layovers are so short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Probably Farthest place in the world that you can go from New York---wife is going in March we paid = Newark to Honolulu $319 staying there a few days then from there to Aukland $650 thats 1 way. The price coming back is slightly cheaper as it is direct without the stop to Honolulu ----total was $1700 and change---enjoy BW I can't believe how cheap the flights are to hawaii. From Buffalo to the islands its like $300-400. You couldn't even drive to Kansas for that cheap. I plan to go back and this time visit Kauai. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just booked my flight to New Zealand, April 10-26! That country is expensive. Yes it is, a small slice of the cost difference. A round of 4 beers at the bar was usually 60-70 dollars NZ. I did two weeks there in 2018 and hit all the big stops. Was a once in a lifetime trip and blew me away. Let me know if you have questions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I was going to go in March too, but it was a little cheaper in April. Usually we drive to Toronto for International flights and it's much cheaper, but the difference was so small to NZL that it didn't seem worth the extra stop. We only stop once to Auckland in Chicago. What's your itinerary? I haven't booked anything else except i know i want to spend most of the trip on the South Island. It was $3300 for 2 people round trip. Only 1 stop on the way there and 2 stops on the way back and the layovers are so short. BW ---> My wife has a childhood friend who now lives there and she is going for her daughters wedding. She will be traveling with her best friend who go figure also has someone who she has not seen in years who lives in the same damn town as my wifes New Zealand friend ( small world for real ) so thats the plan. They stay in Hawaii a few days before the wedding. I on the other hand will stay home and play Mr Mom and watch for St Paddys snowstorms lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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