wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I'm liking that Sunday night/Monday morning time frame, how much accumulates who knows, but whatever..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I'm liking that Sunday night/Monday morning time frame, how much accumulates who knows, but whatever..lol Right over Carols house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 A good look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A good look Looks like a mix between Nino and Nina. Not the greatest look actually. Lack of blocking means any cold will be transient. This pattern is downright brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 We are torching today, forecast high was 40°, currently 44°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Boy the European is close here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Boy the European is close here.. I had pretty much written this pig off looking at GFS and other NWP Skew T's last few runs. But there's just enough credible model support for a snowier outcome to keep some hope of avoiding a front end washout alive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Looks like a mix between Nino and Nina. Not the greatest look actually. Lack of blocking means any cold will be transient. This pattern is downright brutal. Well if you get the cold air in Upstate you get lake effect. Not the best synoptic look. Way too far out to see if it has any staying power or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 We may hit 50° today, up to 47°..I enjoy nice days too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 That primary trying to hold on is just killing us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We may hit 50° today, up to 47°..I enjoy nice days too lol driving around Cazenovia today the car said 48! had the sunroof open! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 It's so easy for the temp to hit the 40s and 50s in Marchuary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's so easy for the temp to hit the 40s and 50s in Marchuary. I remember there were a few pretty good snowstorms that followed 50 degree days down around NYC / NNJ snowbelts as a kid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I remember there were a few pretty good snowstorms that followed 50 degree days down around NYC / NNJ snowbelts as a kid. Fair enough. I would be more hopeful about that happening this weekend if the Canadian had stayed the course. Now that it has backed off, the Euro steps up to the plate. Can they ever just agree?!? lol I am back and forth on what I am hoping for. Part of me doesn't want heavy rain, but then the other part of me says we may have to endure heavy rain to possibly bring enough cooling down for a change to snow. Otherwise, it's steady rain with the hope that the lakes can provide SOMETHING afterwards. But, as we know, the synoptic systems AND Lakes have not been kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Around 50 here and bright sunshine. Feels like late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Surprisingly with temps in the mid 40s there still isn't much melting going on. No big dripping or anything. Snowpack has compacted some more, but still looks like a solid 5 to 6 inches. Low dewpoints continue to protect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Right where we want it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 This yr may be the first yr, in a long time, that both the oneida and seneca rivers are void of any ice, on Jan 24th!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I had pretty much written this pig off looking at GFS and other NWP Skew T's last few runs. But there's just enough credible model support for a snowier outcome to keep some hope of avoiding a front end washout alive.Indeed there is as that's all I was looking at yesterday as I said, we're toast, lol, but today I'm a bit more optimistic!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Neither NWS office is entertaining any thoughts of what the Euro is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The best chance for accumulating snow is Sunday and Sunday night. However, surface temperatures will marginal for snow and so snow will struggle to accumulate. Model QPF has also been a challenge, with some models and runs significantly higher than others. In general, upsloping will play a significant role, along with deep moisture associated with the upper low, and a secondary trough which is forecast to move through Sunday night. Southwesterly winds typically do not upslope effectively, and suspect some model guidance has overdone lake enhancement which should be minimal. Base don this, have hedged toward model runs with lower QPF amounts. A more WSW surface flow will support better upsloping Sunday night, and this may be when the most snow accumulates. Snowfall amounts will vary by location, with generally the greatest amounts across higher terrain east of the lakes where there will be some orographic enhancement and where it will be the coldest. Snow amounts are likely to fall in the advisory range with 24-hour storm totals in the 4 to 8 inch range at these locations. The Tug Hill bears some watching, with slightly higher amounts possible, but held off on watch headlines considering that snow will likely be wet and have poor liquid equivalent ratios. Elsewhere there will be minimal accumulation. This includes the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, I- 90 along Lake Erie, the Genesee River Valley, and western Finger Lakes. Expect only a slushy inch or two at these locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Nam has on and off snow from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday and still going.. Not the heaviest but would keep it looking wintry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Still targeting that Feb 4-8th time frame for the pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Looking better.. 6" line about 2-3 miles east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I think this one will surprise. Delta, my trip to Whiteface is February 5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I think this one will surprise. Delta, my trip to Whiteface is February 5-8. Dang, we can high five as I check out and you check in. I'm going from the 2-5th, driving home on the 6th. You appear to be there during a slightly more favorable time period, but we've been chasing fantasy winter weather 10 days out for months now so we shall see what actually comes to fruition. The fact that there is a strong miller A lurking around next weekend for many runs now is at least something we can track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Dang, we can high five as I check out and you check in. I'm going from the 2-5th, driving home on the 6th. You appear to be there during a slightly more favorable time period, but we've been chasing fantasy winter weather 10 days out for months now so we shall see what actually comes to fruition. The fact that there is a strong miller A lurking around next weekend for many runs now is at least something we can track. Just finished skiing Jackson Hole. It was fabulous. Driving through W Yellowstone in the back of a huge GMC Yukon on my way to Big Sky. Snowing with big snow banks either side of the road. Life is tough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Drooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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