CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Get ready, it's coming.. lol Is this for Sat? RLMAO, Can anyone say GFS to a T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Yup lol That's the entire event.. Kbgm map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night the closed low will move over or just south of the eastern Great Lakes. The associated pool of cold air aloft will move overhead, and modest cold advection will begin in the boundary layer. This will allow for a change to wet snow, first at higher elevations where temperatures will be slightly cooler, and last near the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines. The majority of the precipitation will then be snow later Saturday night through Sunday, although some rain may still mix in at times across lower elevations. The wrap around phase of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night will feature upslope enhancement across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region as westerly flow increases in the wake of the system. While there will be orographic enhancement, the boundary layer never becomes cold enough for any appreciable lake enhancement. As far as accumulations go, the marginal thermal structure will likely keep the accumulations highly dependent on elevation. There will be virtually no accumulation anywhere through late afternoon Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday it will become cold enough across higher terrain to allow for accumulation to begin. Expect total accumulations from Saturday night through Sunday to reach 3-6 inches across the higher terrain from the Boston Hills and Wyoming County down through Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, and also on the Tug Hill Plateau. Across lower elevations, temperatures will struggle to get cold enough to allow for much, if any accumulation. Expect a coating to an inch or two of slush at most across most of the lower elevation locations, including Buffalo and Rochester. These are early estimates and may change with later model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 This is one of those events where lots of surprises can happen and I mean more snowy ones! It also has huge bust potential everywhere so we'll see what happens as we get closer to the event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Um, their talking like we have a warm ground to overcome, lol. Where I am is completely snow covered so if it snows, its gonna accumulate, and if it rains the snow will most likely absorb most of what does fall as rain, so we'll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yup lol That's the entire event.. Kbgm map Stay safe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Um, their talking like we have a warm ground to overcome, lol. Where I am is completely snow covered so if it snows, its gonna accumulate, and if it rains the snow will most likely absorb most of what does fall as rain, so we'll see! I think it's more due to light precip rates and forecast surface temps are in the mid 30s (36° kfzy) .. Models have .10-.30" liquid over a 24 hr period which won't cut it lol Obviously this can change but it's what's being shown atm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Curious...is there anybody on here that doesn't have a solid snowpack? 6 dense inches on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Curious...is there anybody on here that doesn't have a solid snowpack? 6 dense inches on the ground here.We haven’t had a real snow pack here almost all winter. Just saw one of the local mets mention BUF has only 4 days with 6”+ of snow on the ground. Those days were all in November following that 12” synoptic storm. Normal winter we see 25 days of 6”+ snow on the ground. Right now maybe an inch of icy slop on the ground.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: We haven’t had a real snow pack here almost all winter. Just saw one of the local mets mention BUF has only 4 days with 6”+ of snow on the ground. Those days were all in November following that 12” synoptic storm. Normal winter we see 25 days of 6”+ snow on the ground. Right now maybe an inch of icy slop on the ground. . Yeah, our best and most consistent snowpack was early to mid November. That was as anomalous as the warmth and lack of snow we’ve had since mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Can't even get an idea from the soundings cause they are no use at all, lol! They all seem confused as each 3hr period is some other kind of frozen precip output which tells me the upper lvls are all over the place and no one model is better or worse than each other. The coldest by far is the Nam and the warmest is the GFS. I can't believe the models had a better handle on this system 5 day ago than they do now, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Curious...is there anybody on here that doesn't have a solid snowpack? 6 dense inches on the ground here. I still have a very robust 6 inch snowpack. There is almost no sign of melting even though temps topped out at 37 today. Those obscenely low dewpoints in the single digits certainly saved the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Don't you just love how the rain blossoms over Central NY on Saturday? All the other systems when it has been "cold" enough to snow, it falls apart. Give us our rain, crap slop, and then some consolation snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I still have a very robust 6 inch snowpack. There is almost no sign of melting even though temps topped out at 37 today. Those obscenely low dewpoints in the single digits certainly saved the day. Yeah, the low dewpoints really help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: This yr is coming real close to 2011-12 which was one of the worst Winters ever, especially for up here so they happen but they are few and far between, thank God! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yes, ranking up with 2011/12, 2001/02, 1931/32, 1889/90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 2" of QPF and most of it is going to be rain over my place in late Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 CMC has become our new weenie model lol 3"+ LE imby? Lol Like half that is snow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Look at the airmass for Feb 3rd across the Conus...Neutral ENSO and you can still get a raging Pacific Jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: CMC has become our new weenie model lol 3"+ LE imby? Lol Like half that is snow haha Are temps cold enough for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Look at the airmass for Feb 3rd across the Conus...Neutral ENSO and you can still get a raging Pacific Jet. Looks more like early April than early Feb. Need a La Nina to shake this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Looks more like early April than early Feb. Need a La Nina to shake this up. I'm assuming that warm pool of water near Alaska has caused all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Are temps cold enough for that? Borderline lol I was going by p-type maps.. It looks fine aloft from what I've seen.. Surface is marginal 33-34, could accumulate with heavy precip but ratios would suck.. I'm not really buying the Canadian anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just needed a couple/few degrees colder on the Ggem. But it's on it's own at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm assuming that warm pool of water near Alaska has caused all of this? I believe that warm pool is largely misunderstood. In the past and even now some people attributed that warm pool to the EPO. For example, the strong -EPO we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 was, as some believe, linked to the warm pool. But I believe the two aren't connected in that sense. Similarly, some people attributed the strong Atlantic blocking (NAO/AO) in 2008-2011 to the low solar activity. About 10 years later were seeing similar solar activity and yet the stratospheric PV is as strong as ever with no signs of any Arctic blocking. Another argument could be made for the October Siberian snow cover and Arctic blocking. They're all just theories and not enough concrete evidence to back them up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: I believe that warm pool is largely misunderstood. In the past and even now some people attributed that warm pool to the EPO. For example, the strong -EPO we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 was, as some believe, linked to the warm pool. But I believe the two aren't connected in that sense. Similarly, some people attributed the strong Atlantic blocking (NAO/AO) in 2008-2011 to the low solar activity. About 10 years later were seeing similar solar activity and yet the stratospheric PV is as strong as ever with no signs of any Arctic blocking. Another argument could be made for the October Siberian snow cover and Arctic blocking. They're all just theories and not enough concrete evidence to back them up. None of it makes any sense, I don't see any correlation between anything. Think I'm going to stick to the 1-2 week outlook from now on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 How about that rgem lol Vaild 7pm Sunday. Still in it's LR.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: None of it makes any sense, I don't see any correlation between anything. Think I'm going to stick to the 1-2 week outlook from now on. I agree. Expectations for this winter were really high back in Oct-Nov. Fast forward to Jan 24 and were breaking records. Just not the ones we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I wouldn’t give up on the weekend. It looks like an April storm. It has some limited upper level cold air to work with. Some surprises still possible. Just a couple degrees away from an interesting storm. It’s a spring storm- look to elevation stuff anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 47 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: How about that rgem lol Vaild 7pm Sunday. Still in it's LR.. What is that 3' of snow over my house? I'll take 1-2" of slop with 2" of rain. 60 MM over my place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Euro looked decent East of lake Ontario with some embedded stronger bands on a west-wsw flow.. Timing is pretty good as well, Sunday night into Monday morning.. But you can see how marginal it is is lol I think the heavier precip rates are saving east of Ontario in these frames.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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