vortmax Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Stronger more consolidated northern stream on the rgem compared to the NAM products.. Winds up 996mb over philly at hr 54.. This would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The GFS is so far north with the snow. Of course, as with all systems this year, there has been one model that is warmer than the rest, and it ends up being right. I am going to go with the GFS because there has not been any pattern change whatsoever for me to feel confident we come out with a colder solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 RGEM coming in with a reasonable scenario. Be curious to see if Bristol picks up a decent snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: RGEM coming in with a reasonable scenario. Be curious to see if Bristol picks up a decent snowfall I see a big 2 near my abode. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I hear this sentiment so much. Peoples memories really want to remember things for the best (or at least different than reality). The old timers always talk about the crazy winters we had in the 40's, 50's and 60's, however there is just no data to back it up. I think a lot of it has to do with how well we can handle snow now and predict snow these days compared to back then. A typical well forecasted storm now might have been crippling 50 years ago if it hit at the wrong time and couldn't be cleaned up well. I know that there are a lot of subtleties that I'm glazing over, but there just isn't historic data to back up the idea that winters used to be MUCH colder and snowier. You can look at the total snow... the average temperature... but what about combining them and looking at how we trend for days with snow on the ground. I think this is a better gauge on how well we remember a certain winter or period of winters. Growing up in the 90s it seemed like we had awesome winters and I can remember more years than not that we would have snow on the ground for long periods. Building snow forts and sled hills off the garage roof that stayed for weeks not a weekend. Anyways found these on the BUF climate page and I think they actually back up this idea... Average Days with 1” over this period was 71.2 days. Big thing that stands out here in the consistency of 20 straight seasons from 1990-2010 where every season had 50+ days. Now notice the last 8 seasons... 4 of those 8 we failed to see 50 days. Average days with 6” over this period was 24.6 days. Again can see the reduced frequency over the past 10 seasons compared to the 90s and 2000s.Now the 12” chart is a real eye popper. Average days for this period was 8.6 days. Which is heavily skewed by the monster winters in the 70s. From 1993-2004 we had 5 out of 11 seasons with 10 or more days having 12” on the ground. Over the next 15 seasons following this we would only see 1 more season with over 10 days of 12” on the ground. Can cut the numbers any way you want but I think it does show we are having more trouble keeping a snowpack on the ground in the past few years regardless of where we shake out for actual snowfall for the season. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Yes! Time for the locals to start the dart throwing contest! Props to Mr. Santos he gets the “sticking yer neck out there” award! Nice 3-5” zone from northern Buffalo metro to the western Rochester burbs. Also showing we will be over to all snow by 8am Saturday... yikes... Good Luck Channel 4!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Open water as far as the eye can see on Lake Erie. Photo taken this evening at the Lake Erie/Niagara River interface, facing southwest down the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 GEFS mean is a solid 3"-5".. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 NAM is coming out looking good for many of us in Western and Central NY. Hopefully the GFS follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: NAM is coming out looking good for many of us in Western and Central NY. Hopefully the GFS follows. Still thinking this is an area wide 3 to 6. 3 towards southern tier and 4 to 6 northern Erie over to roch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 k Nam looks pretty good but ratios are less than 10-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 10-1 vs kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: You can look at the total snow... the average temperature... but what about combining them and looking at how we trend for days with snow on the ground. I think this is a better gauge on how well we remember a certain winter or period of winters. Growing up in the 90s it seemed like we had awesome winters and I can remember more years than not that we would have snow on the ground for long periods. Building snow forts and sled hills off the garage roof that stayed for weeks not a weekend. Anyways found these on the BUF climate page and I think they actually back up this idea... Average Days with 1” over this period was 71.2 days. Big thing that stands out here in the consistency of 20 straight seasons from 1990-2010 where every season had 50+ days. Now notice the last 8 seasons... 4 of those 8 we failed to see 50 days. Average days with 6” over this period was 24.6 days. Again can see the reduced frequency over the past 10 seasons compared to the 90s and 2000s. Now the 12” chart is a real eye popper. Average days for this period was 8.6 days. Which is heavily skewed by the monster winters in the 70s. From 1993-2004 we had 5 out of 11 seasons with 10 or more days having 12” on the ground. Over the next 15 seasons following this we would only see 1 more season with over 10 days of 12” on the ground. Can cut the numbers any way you want but I think it does show we are having more trouble keeping a snowpack on the ground in the past few years regardless of where we shake out for actual snowfall for the season. . Those charts are awesome to see, thank you for the posts! To me these charts are the proof in the pudding. To me yearly snow totals or average temps mean nothing without staying power. Thanks again for this info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just got back from Sabres game. Penalty shot goal by Eichel to beat the Oilers. We need to get on a winning streak here to have any chance to make the playoffs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Open water as far as the eye can see on Lake Erie. Photo taken this evening at the Lake Erie/Niagara River interface, facing southwest down the lake. This might be one of those years that Erie doesn't freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 Saturdays event looks pretty minor to me. 1-4" across WNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Saturdays event looks pretty minor to me. 1-4" across WNY. Minor is the new major when it comes to WNY snowfall...yes I have sold my soul... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Not much of a consensus.. NAM/HRW products always look good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 NMM is on the slow side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: You can look at the total snow... the average temperature... but what about combining them and looking at how we trend for days with snow on the ground. I think this is a better gauge on how well we remember a certain winter or period of winters. Growing up in the 90s it seemed like we had awesome winters and I can remember more years than not that we would have snow on the ground for long periods. Building snow forts and sled hills off the garage roof that stayed for weeks not a weekend. Anyways found these on the BUF climate page and I think they actually back up this idea... Average Days with 1” over this period was 71.2 days. Big thing that stands out here in the consistency of 20 straight seasons from 1990-2010 where every season had 50+ days. Now notice the last 8 seasons... 4 of those 8 we failed to see 50 days. Average days with 6” over this period was 24.6 days. Again can see the reduced frequency over the past 10 seasons compared to the 90s and 2000s. Now the 12” chart is a real eye popper. Average days for this period was 8.6 days. Which is heavily skewed by the monster winters in the 70s. From 1993-2004 we had 5 out of 11 seasons with 10 or more days having 12” on the ground. Over the next 15 seasons following this we would only see 1 more season with over 10 days of 12” on the ground. Can cut the numbers any way you want but I think it does show we are having more trouble keeping a snowpack on the ground in the past few years regardless of where we shake out for actual snowfall for the season. . I agree with everything you posted. I was actually thinking of pulling some of that data to graph myself but had forgotten buffalo already had it neatly packaged for us. It is a very good metric to use when judging the strength of a winter. The 2010’s definitely look ugly on paper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I don’t even know why I post NAM outputs (especially after that 12/14 storm bit us in the ass) but there was a very sizable improvement from 18z to 0z tonight. Im locking in 2 inches for KROC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 We better hope for some heavy precip rates lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 Buffalo Snowfall throughout years, I excluded the 1940s for station movement. 1940s: 77.99" (Station right along water) 1950s: 95.87" 1960s: 87.09" 1970s: 107.19" 1980s: 86.81" 1990s: 90.94" 2000s: 105.76" 2010s: 90.26" Average: 97.26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We better hope for some heavy precip rates lol Sigh...can it ever just be easy? It's going to be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We better hope for some heavy precip rates lol Always gotta look at all the parameters. This will kill accumulation. Can it even REALLY snow at 37? 34 or below is when u have a chance. Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Always gotta look at all the parameters. This will kill accumulation. Can it even REALLY snow at 37? 34 or below is when u have a chance. Yuck I feel like it hasn't been below freezing in weeks. Its 46 deg outside right now. The average high today is 32 and low is 19. We're at a +14 of the high at 11 PM on Jan 2nd. The next 2 weeks are historically the coldest time of the year and mid Jan looks like an oven. The only way my call before year comes to fruition is some big time lake effect and I don't see the same setup as last year with the SSW in late Dec which gave us the big events in Jan early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just checked out my go-to webcams from where I lived most of the past decade in West Michigan. They've barely had any snow this year...got 6 inches New Year's eve...two days later and it's pretty much all gone already due to temps in the 40s. Exactly the reason I am glad it didn't snow here the other day...it would all be gone anyways! Next week is looking like out best shot at getting some snows in the midst of this horrific-ness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Looks colder next week, Monday-wed with several clippers, better shot as some appreciable snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Just checked out my go-to webcams from where I lived most of the past decade in West Michigan. They've barely had any snow this year...got 6 inches New Year's eve...two days later and it's pretty much all gone already due to temps in the 40s. Exactly the reason I am glad it didn't snow here the other day...it would all be gone anyways! Next week is looking like out best shot at getting some snows in the midst of this horrific-ness. Even worth only has a foot on the ground in the Tug http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Even worth only has a foot on the ground in the Tug http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm This made me chuckle a bit! True, that is low for them. There are many areas on the Tug with grass showing, or very shallow base. I have met more and more people who have said they have given up on snowmobiling. They said the cost of upkeep and fees with such lousy winters lately isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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