wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 My biggest concern is the gfs has been to consistent of late lol I'm waiting for that other shoe to drop.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: He's talking about the sat system, as one more bump north and we Fooked lol First you than me. Thats definitely true as I'm already expecting a gully washer so.....! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 But if Thursdays event can become just a stronger system and become the 50/50 we need, we can perhaps at least see some snow, so we'll see as a lot hinges on tomorrows event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think I'll end up with a foot of snow by next Wednesday but it'll come 3" at a time... Weekend system looks about as I expected, 6-8 hours of snow at 1/2 - 3/4" per hr rates then rain and dryslotting slop followed by a few inches of Lake snow late sunday into Monday. And we do it all over again next weekend! Better than the last 4 weeks... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's a wierd event lol You have a warm front that enhances precipitation once u get to Oswego, onieda, Fulton, Montgomery counties but south of there is almost nothing lol The warm front has to pass every one ..I guess it's all tied to the track of the low . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Today is the halfway point of meteorological winter. I have to give it an F so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Another warm up coming next week (Thurs-Sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Not for nothing but the MJO forecast the past few weeks has been nothing short of atrocious as 1wk-2wk verifications have been so off, its hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Not for nothing but the MJO forecast the past few weeks has been nothing short of atrocious as 1wk-2wk verifications have been so off, its hilarious! The MJO has been the main driver of the record warmth we've been having. It's having similar effects to a strong El Nino with a PAC dominated warm flow. It dominated last years weather too, we could never get sustained cold all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another warm up coming next week (Thurs-Sunday) There is not! Those departures would yield temps in the low-mid 30's and thats good enough for snow up here! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Buffalo is -18.8" of snow for the winter and a +12 for Temp departure for January so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The MJO has been the main driver of the record warmth we've been having. It's having similar effects to a strong El Nino with a PAC dominated warm flow. It dominated last years weather too, we could never get sustained cold all winter. I disagree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: I disagree 100% Then explain why we have been so warm then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Come on brother lol Go look at the 2m temps, ond day above freezing and that's the last day of the run.. Of course we will warm up with southerly flow ahead of a CF.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Temps are cold throughout on the European.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 forecast vs verification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: forecast vs verification! You didn't answer on why we have been so warm yet if its not the MJO. Because it is the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: He's talking about the sat system, as one more bump north and we Fooked lol First you than me. Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just to show u how close it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 good discussion. Throw it down Bruhs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 U can tell where the warm front is.. Look how it's draped.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 If the system was closer to us the warm front would push through quicker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The MJO wweak sauce both Dec and Jan so I don't know where all this MJO mumbo jumbo is coming from all of a sudden. Oh wait, OHWEATHER mentioned it so it must be correct right? The MJO is one aspect of our weather not the root cause but if you believe its running our pattern then I guess the IOD has no bearing, which is what I think has been running the pattern but it also ties in with the MJO so this is one debate that can go on for days and days. You have ur opinion and I have mine which has to do with the forcing the the Central Pacific in and around the DL which I mentioned yesterday but theres no need for this debate IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 We're both right in a sense and if someone mentioned the amped up PV and the atrociously + AO the past several weeks they would also be correct but saying the MJO is the leading force of our current pattern I'd have to disagree like I did, and that was solely the reason I did as there is never 1 aspect of our endlessly chaotic system that controls it all, NEVER! I never said you were wrong I just said I disagreed and I answered why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 man I hope were all wrong and it changes on a dime and we head into mid Winter where we should be, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just to show u how close it is lol U can see where the warm front gets to.. It's the SE trajectory of the WF that is saving us right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 When there is an ever present trough over Hawaii just East of the DL it pretty much pushes everything Eastward as I mentioned yesterday with the forcing. If that forcing had been displaced further West as it is East we'd be under a constant Trough as the North atlantic has been! I may have an illustration Look at the constant trough out across the NA now imagine it over us and if the forcing didn't screw us the way it did we'd be having a much different discussion, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's all connected as far as I'm concerned but some yrs some pieces have much more influence than others but I do not think its been the MJO as it has only come alive the past couple weeks as its been weak. The further away from the center of the graph it goes, the stronger the Kelvin Wave but the last couple months its been in the center of the circle doing diddly! The past week or so we've seen it come alive and now all of a sudden its gonna run things, Nah I don't think so, but I can be wrong. My concern about the MJO forecast going forward is that it NEVER enters the cold phases, 8-1-2 and part of 7 but none of them get there, so does that mean Winter is over in Mid Jan? I guess we'll see! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If the system was closer to us the warm front would push through quicker.. $10 virtual bucks Buffalo gets above 40 on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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