rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I hear ya Matt! You summed it up nicely. I know some folks don’t wanna hear the complaining “because winters not over”. Trust me, we get that- but tell me it doesn’t suck to lose the second half of December and possibly all of January?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I'm sorry but theres Nothing worse than rain, with temps in the low 30's in late December? When I first moved here in 2002-03 season, the best in my life to date, right after Thanksgiving we'd get our hybrid storm then a bout of LE then Fall would resume till right after Christmas, but that particular yr it snowed 11" in Syracuse, my first true White Christmas, and it was truly magical but it seems like since we hit the 2010's everything has gone to straight shit, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 Happy new year all! Perrysburg got a foot of snow overnight. 1.4" here. NEW YORK ...Cattaraugus County... Perrysburg 12.3 1000 AM 1/01 Co-Op Observer ...Erie County... Sardinia 6.0 940 AM 1/01 Trained Spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I hear ya Matt! You summed it up nicely. I know some folks don’t wanna hear the complaining “because winters not over”. Trust me, we get that- but tell me it doesn’t suck to lose the second half of December and possibly all of January?!?! Yeah my favorite part of winter is Dec and Jan. Lose both of them and lets hop to spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I won't even begin to think what the culprit is for this drastic change in our sensible weather here in CNY, but I will say the Pacific has much to do with it, that's for damn sure but to try and guess exactly what's doing this to our weather would be useless to me anyway, lol, because it's probably too damn complex for me to even understand, lol! We will see Winter this yr, for sure, butbit may not begin till late Jan and last well into March, what do we know? So we wait.... Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 NWS isn't mentioning Saturdays storm at all, just calling it plain rain entire duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Look at the tongue of warmth that sticks its nasty ass right up Rt 81!! I'm outta here if this shite keeps up because this ain't no blip anymore as its constant. I feel like I'm on the Jersey Coast waiting till the Atl cools enough for us to see snow, WTF???? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 As bad as the gfs looked was as good as the Canadian looked lol Misses us with the first system.. Several bouts of LES Big snowstorm day 7-8.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 Western trough, eastern ridge from 180 hours on, this is why we see so many cutters. The farther west you are the better chance at a hit the next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 No cutters on the European.. 2 snow events the next 6-7 days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Monday-tues holds some potential as well especially east of the lakes.. Enough stuff to keep me interested lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: No cutters on the European.. 2 snow events the next 6-7 days.. Yes there is. My post was gefs starting Jan 10th . Mid January looks very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Well the models were showing next system as a cutter too, just yesterday, now they don't except the gfs. 10-14 days away is a long ways away in the weather world lol Even the day 10 system is not a cutter.. This would of been a big run , split between the 2 HP.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Hey Matt. Happy New Year. Yeah I was thinking the same thing wrt to the "new pattern" as this seems to be a repeat of last years cutterfest. Don S suggested that this may be related to warmer SST's and a new base state as a result. MJO seems to be favoring warmer 5/6 as well and he sees the link between the 2. Sure hoping its just a seasonal blip, but makes one wonder. Nut Hey, Nut! Thanks for the response! Glad to see you stop by. Don S. is such a wise gentleman. I wish he would frequent every sub! I reeeeeeally hope something mixes up whatever is going on. 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I hear ya Matt! You summed it up nicely. I know some folks don’t wanna hear the complaining “because winters not over”. Trust me, we get that- but tell me it doesn’t suck to lose the second half of December and possibly all of January?!?! Thanks. I really hate being negative...however, this sub. is such a helpful opportunity to vent/question/be excited about weather that the "rest of the world" just doesn't understand! 51 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Look at the tongue of warmth that sticks its nasty ass right up Rt 81!! I'm outta here if this shite keeps up because this ain't no blip anymore as its constant. I feel like I'm on the Jersey Coast waiting till the Atl cools enough for us to see snow, WTF???? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I thought of YOU immediately when I saw that! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Just for you guys... Btw We recovered somewhat, flipping to mod-heavy snow as well...If it wasn't for that warm tongue it would of been a nice hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: NWS isn't mentioning Saturdays storm at all, just calling it plain rain entire duration. Yeah I find that their longer range has not been very up to date. I'm expecting the 4pm update or tomorrow AFD to be different...also all models show what could be a decent clipper lake effect event Monday night to Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I thought of YOU immediately when I saw that! lolI was also gonna ask, What Warm SST's is Don specifically talking about because if he's talking about the globe as a whole, then I'd be inclined to agree with him because of the Earth being, 75% H20, and the temperature of this water has risen let's say a 1/2 a degree or more, as I'm just giving a hypothetical example, then who knows how or what this sort of warming would change our sensible weather here oth so.....Alls I know is this, that the weather has definitively changed for the worse and it doesn't seem like a blip anymore, like most seem to be suggesting. I don't even believe in AGW because I look at weather on more of a cyclical level but perhaps I may have to look at this a bit closer. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Hey Matt. Happy New Year. Yeah I was thinking the same thing wrt to the "new pattern" as this seems to be a repeat of last years cutterfest. Don S suggested that this may be related to warmer SST's and a new base state as a result. MJO seems to be favoring warmer 5/6 as well and he sees the link between the 2. Sure hoping its just a seasonal blip, but makes one wonder. Nut Nut I'm assuming by your profile pic you are a snowmobiler just like I am. I have followed winter weather closely since I got back into snowmobiling back in 2006 as I hate to admit I have a small fortune wrapped up in this weather based hobby. And I am afraid to admit that this is the new normal and a new pattern has taken shape. Now I have no weather specific science to back this up. Just my own observations and the lack of miles on my sleds and the addition of miles on my truck chasing the snow. I know a lot of weather outlets gave their winter outlooks which painted a good picture for us snow lovers. I feel they need to ditch the past analogs they are using as they must be digging too far back and the winters of old are really skewing the information. Until proven else wise it seems like using just the last say 5-10 years of data would be more useful for long range weather forecasts. I'm probably way off base, but I don't have snow and I'm bored, and this is what happens when I get bored. I take to the chat forums, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 lol...the 18Z Nam took a HUGE jump south and now grazes us. Looks like Canadian. Rain or whiff...which one is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: lol...the 18Z Nam took a HUGE jump south and now grazes us. Looks like Canadian. Rain or whiff...which one is better? This is better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 There will likely be two waves of widespread precipitation. The first the result of a right entrance region of a 180 knot 300 hPa jet over our region, and a second later Friday night and into Saturday as a surface low tracks across our region along a wavy frontal boundary. Depending upon the track of this low...cold air may seep southward enough to change rain over to a wet accumulating snow...both on the northern Niagara Frontier and also across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This are still uncertainties to the track of this low...and thus rain/snow line will likely fluctuate some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I think our next serious threat looks to be Tues-Wed of next week and yeah, I know it's light yrs away, lol, it at least has some support from the Euro and the Canadian but I think the GFS is nothing but cutter after cutter which I seriously doubt happens but we'll see I suppose. These Globals can't even resolve a system that's 3 days away, lol, nevermind next week so yeah it's a pipe dream but nonetheless it's something worth watching I think. In 6 hrs it'll be gone, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is better Bahaha….Just shoot me....I need a vacation to Bo's house up da UP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 37 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Nut I'm assuming by your profile pic you are a snowmobiler just like I am. I have followed winter weather closely since I got back into snowmobiling back in 2006 as I hate to admit I have a small fortune wrapped up in this weather based hobby. And I am afraid to admit that this is the new normal and a new pattern has taken shape. Now I have no weather specific science to back this up. Just my own observations and the lack of miles on my sleds and the addition of miles on my truck chasing the snow. I know a lot of weather outlets gave their winter outlooks which painted a good picture for us snow lovers. I feel they need to ditch the past analogs they are using as they must be digging too far back and the winters of old are really skewing the information. Until proven else wise it seems like using just the last say 5-10 years of data would be more useful for long range weather forecasts. I'm probably way off base, but I don't have snow and I'm bored, and this is what happens when I get bored. I take to the chat forums, lol. Hey Geez. Happy New Year! Yep, I'm a big lover of snow and snowmobiling. I like you, used to chase snow (Tug mostly, but Canada too). I purchased a cabin in 2007 in Tioga County PA and thats where I call home for my sledding fix. I too have spend a lot on sledding, but knew that once the cabin was purchased, that would end much of my chase as disposable income was used to reno it. No regrets whatsoever, but as I'm now 50, i'm getting too old to chase every weekend, but we still luck into decent sledding in Northern Pa, although last couple years have been a bit tough on the carbides. That said, yeah I suggested sometime back in the fall, that the "new norm" was throwing a wrench into analog usage, and the accuracy therein. I'm not sure this is necessarily the new norm as much as a new base state to use moving forward (as you suggest). One needs to be reminded that we've had many stretches of ugly over the last few decades. The difference is that we now have access to so much more data, that when something looks good, we tend to jump in and wanna believe, because we've evolved so much. As we are all weather enthusiasts, it's always best to remember that Mo Nature holds the cards, and is good at throwing wrenches into the best patterns/forecasts. On the flip side, look at how the southern mid atlantic has cashed in a couple years back, while northern PA couldnt buy a snowflake. Ebbs and flows of this sport/passion I guess. Here is to hoping that once beyond this next period of ugly (1/10-17 ish), that we can see signs of better sledding. Nut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 hours ago, Geez150 said: Nut I'm assuming by your profile pic you are a snowmobiler just like I am. I have followed winter weather closely since I got back into snowmobiling back in 2006 as I hate to admit I have a small fortune wrapped up in this weather based hobby. And I am afraid to admit that this is the new normal and a new pattern has taken shape. Now I have no weather specific science to back this up. Just my own observations and the lack of miles on my sleds and the addition of miles on my truck chasing the snow. I know a lot of weather outlets gave their winter outlooks which painted a good picture for us snow lovers. I feel they need to ditch the past analogs they are using as they must be digging too far back and the winters of old are really skewing the information. Until proven else wise it seems like using just the last say 5-10 years of data would be more useful for long range weather forecasts. I'm probably way off base, but I don't have snow and I'm bored, and this is what happens when I get bored. I take to the chat forums, lol. You could be right about a "new normal" but the problem with looking at only the past decade as a reference for seasonal (winter) forecasting is that these forecasts usually rely on analog comparisons. Reducing an already limited data set even further would be problematic. My understanding is that we only have the past 40-50 years (where sufficient data exists), from which to develop analogs. The analog method has its advantages but an already limited data set isn't one of them. So, let's say we have 50 data sets for comparison purposes, and there are maybe 10 reasonable matches to the conditions we expect to prevail during winter. Maybe 3 give a colder result, 5 a warmer one, and 2 are mixed...hard to draw a conclusion. Limit the data set to just 10 (as an example) and it's likely any comps become not much more than a swag. Unless things really have changed to where a warm bias works most of the time... just some thoughts on a snowless New Years day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 0Z NAM coming in way north now compared to 18Z...is this a situation where the 0Z and 12Z runs wrestle with the 06Z and 18Z? Funny, the New England board has 10 pages devoted to just this weekend's event....while in here it's crickets. But much of theirs is their typical bantering and putting each other down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 0Z NAM coming in way north now compared to 18Z...is this a situation where the 0Z and 12Z runs wrestle with the 06Z and 18Z? Funny, the New England board has 10 pages devoted to just this weekend's event....while in here it's crickets. But much of theirs is their typical bantering and putting each other down. If we can get the canadian high to become a little stronger and force the front further south and east Saturday could be a much different outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: If we can get the canadian high to become a little stronger and force the front further south and east Saturday could be a much different outcome And the Icon went even farther south. I don't see the high being THAT strong to push it so far south. Especially with the ridging over the West Atlantic/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Gfs looks great Monday through Wednesday fwiw lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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