Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: They've been pretty spot on with the warm weather the last month. All models showed it. What about when they showed warm for November? That didn't work out. CPC to this moment has us on the edge of BN temps for January that was remade on Dec 31st...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Never thought I'd see this image lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nice share BW, great discussion. Somethings gotta give if we’re ever gonna salvage this winter. Was looking back to this time last year and looks like we were in the same boat with a hit and miss start to winter. Pattern started to swing this week last year with some synoptic storms, much like we are seeing this week this year as well. Then the GFS popped this fantasy multi day lake effect blizzard at 360 hours. We laughed it off as the models were sucking just as bad last year. Ended up verifying almost perfectly.We’re overdue for a long range fantasy storm to lock in and verify. Nothings been sticking run to run yet but getting some interesting looks. Last run try’s to develop a lake effect event.Lake Erie is at 38, 4 degrees above average. The western basin still has a nice pool of 40 degree plus in place. Will take a hit this weekend for sure but nice to still have the lake in play again going into late January. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Looks like a long duration lake event for roc syracuse sunday thru teusday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's do or die with the warm front at this point.. Not much around it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The Pacific has basically ruined our Winter and theres a pretty simple explanation if ya can follow me. OHweather did a good job of explaining the MJO, but he didn't mention the consistent forcing thats been present for the past 4-6wks displaced just East of the DL right around 140-160W and this, in turn, has allowed the mean trough to remain off shore across the N.ATL for the same amt of time, and its not changing. If the forcing I'm talking about had been displaced the other way, then we'd be sitting pretty but thats the weather and perhaps the wicked drought conditions across Australia have had an effect across the Trop Pac, who knows! Hawaii has had a trough over them for the past 6 weeks and usually its to their East, but not this yr. Not saying it can't or won't snow, I'm just saying those who were hoping on a pattern change, including JB, have to wait a couple to a few weeks longer. I never really see the MJO getting to phase 8- 1 or 2 but it does get into 7 briefly so unless the Trop Pac changes, and does so quickly, then I don't think Winter makes an appearance the whole season and when it did in Nov, it was Fall and go look where the forcing was in Nov, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Deja Vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS has pretty much a carbon copy of this weekend's system for next weekend. Persistent things going on this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 You beat me to it, wolf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Earlier in the year that's all rain though.. Definitely have more cold to work with then the last several weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 59 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice share BW, great discussion. Somethings gotta give if we’re ever gonna salvage this winter. Was looking back to this time last year and looks like we were in the same boat with a hit and miss start to winter. Pattern started to swing this week last year with some synoptic storms, much like we are seeing this week this year as well. Then the GFS popped this fantasy multi day lake effect blizzard at 360 hours. We laughed it off as the models were sucking just as bad last year. Ended up verifying almost perfectly. We’re overdue for a long range fantasy storm to lock in and verify. Nothings been sticking run to run yet but getting some interesting looks. Last run try’s to develop a lake effect event. Lake Erie is at 38, 4 degrees above average. The western basin still has a nice pool of 40 degree plus in place. Will take a hit this weekend for sure but nice to still have the lake in play again going into late January. . This year the setup is much different. I actually called that LES event last year 2 weeks ahead of time. The entry point of the cold air does not feature something similar to last year. Even if we get the cold, which will be sporadic, not consistent. The winds will be W/NW. Maybe at the very end of Jan/early feb we see a change but until then it will be quite boring by mid january standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Deja Vu Yep. Once those rails get laid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Canadian came in North towards the rest of guidance but it's thermals are colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 So basically this cold we are getting won't last and we might as well stick a fork in this "winter"? 5 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The Pacific has basically ruined our Winter and theres a pretty simple explanation if ya can follow me. OHweather did a good job of explaining the MJO, but he didn't mention the consistent forcing thats been present for the past 4-6wks displaced just East of the DL right around 140-160W and this, in turn, has allowed the mean trough to remain off shore across the N.ATL for the same amt of time, and its not changing. If the forcing I'm talking about had been displaced the other way, then we'd be sitting pretty but thats the weather and perhaps the wicked drought conditions across Australia have had an effect across the Trop Pac, who knows! Hawaii has had a trough over them for the past 6 weeks and usually its to their East, but not this yr. Not saying it can't or won't snow, I'm just saying those who were hoping on a pattern change, including JB, have to wait a couple to a few weeks longer. I never really see the MJO getting to phase 8- 1 or 2 but it does get into 7 briefly so unless the Trop Pac changes, and does so quickly, then I don't think Winter makes an appearance the whole season and when it did in Nov, it was Fall and go look where the forcing was in Nov, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills as low as 15 to 20 below zero late Thursday night could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Boy that's a sharp cutoff Just need to keep it like this for another 100 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Looks like the nws is going with the hrw models..That's a dangerous game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Woop, there it is. Moved north again and I am now out of the better goods. Freak, you're next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Look just like the NWS map. Nam and Canadian products want none of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like the nws is going with the hrw models..That's a dangerous game lol They discussed a more widespread LES hybrid for Thursday with higher ratios as temps plummet...this actually looks plausible...on another note the local met in buffalo showed the euro output for Sat-sun and it was at 4.1" at KBUF and the GFS was 7"...the difference in reading is the timing of the cold air Saturday night...gfs is right, more snow, euro slower, less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Yeah, tomorrow looks like a hybrid/enhancement event. These are some of my favorite, as they can really pack some surprises. Might get more tomorrow than the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Not much precipitation according to the wpc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 For Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Kbgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's funny we worry so much about temps but not realizing it's a pretty dry system lol 0.3"-0.4" of liquid for most that aren't in that stronger band wherever that may set up, according to the European.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Woop, there it is. Moved north again and I am now out of the better goods. Freak, you're next. Im 20 miles to ur North buddy, Im in a prime spot for enhancement as these are the overperforming events that we usually do good in ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 If u look at the HRW members they have that"traditional" lake Enhancement look.. Problem is the hi Rez Canadian/rgem and Nam/3k look nothing like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Im 20 miles to ur North buddy, Im in a prime spot for enhancement as these are the overperforming events that we usually do good in ! He's talking about the sat system, as one more bump north and we Fooked lol First you than me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills as low as 15 to 20 below zero late Thursday night could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. I actually am confident we eclipse the 4" mark tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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