wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Canadian has a light Snowfall on Thursday (1"-3" type) and is snow to rain and back to snow for next weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Neutral. I’m telling ya. All that talk about a big flip was premature. The flip wasn't supposed to occur until Jan 19-21st, around that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I woke up early this morning and it was 57F, took a nap and just woke up to 29F with a snow shower, WTF? Thanks NWS and all you other public servants. Keep regurgitating what a computer tells you to and this is what you get, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Euro again is just south of CNY on Thursday, not much in the way of precip due to the LP going over the area.. Canadian at the same time is in central PA, a blend would most likely yield a couple/few inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Going to be fun watching the clash of airmasses.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Secondary developing pretty quick, could rob the area of moisture..But obviously temps crash as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Euro is your typical "thump" as we flip to drizzle before flipping back to some light snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Agree on euro. Details to be worked out but it looks more gfs like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Going to be fun watching the clash of airmasses.. I’m not sure another cutter is my idea of fun. Of course you CNY guys have a little better chance of holding on but I can’t remember a good storm where the primary headed north of Detroit. im cranky. I gotta take a break until February. Sorry for the negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro is your typical "thump" as we flip to drizzle before flipping back to some light snow.. I hope Euro isn't right but it probably is. "Thump" snows generally struggle to achieve expectations. Seems max snowfall out of them is in 2-4" range. Which I suppose is a vast improvement from the past month's anemia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It's practically impossible to get over an inch of snow this winter from an "event." Add to that it's just as impossible for a snowpack to exist. Hopefully things change next weekend into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m not sure another cutter is my idea of fun. Of course you CNY guys have a little better chance of holding on but I can’t remember a good storm where the primary headed north of Detroit. im cranky. I gotta take a break until February. Sorry for the negativity. Pretty much spot on. SLP's and H850 lows heading west of here never stay all SN. Best case, which we have seen, is a few inches out front and then transition to mix and RN. If lucky, maybe the precip clears out and we're left with de minimus precip or dryslotting with temps in mid 30s. If you want some fantasist hope, just check out Bastardi's TWTR feed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 A whole lot of trash in 12z runs. Zzzzzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 The system went much farther NW then expected. Toronto received 3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Kbgm SUNDAY/... 2 pm update... Little change. The first system Wednesday night into Thursday looks like a mostly snow event with temperatures mostly in the lower 30s during the event. Still much uncertainty as models still do not agree. As below, Euro strongest with the most snow as it tracks across upstate NY. Canadian now strengthens it some but further south across the twin tiers. GFS still the weakest. Some lake effect on the back side Thursday night before high pressure Friday. Snow amounts only look to be a few inches. Will have to watch the weekend storm. Better model consensus. A good storm which could bring a several inches of snow to the entire area late Friday night through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 For those keeping score...BUF came in with a +29 deg departure yesterday. Sitting at +11.5 for the month. Not a single negative departure day at BUF since December 20th! Looks like each of the next 6 days will be above average. If that holds, we’ll be at about 30 straight days with + departures. Remarkable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That's just nuts to be that warm for that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It truly is remarkable. I forget who it was who posted the graph and suggested we were due a crud winter but I’m thinking they were right. It’s like every 4 years we get a dud. still hopeful for February but I gotta think that’s looking tentative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This is the one, not a lot science behind it but a pattern is a pattern. I'd love to see that pattern get smashed with a strong February. On 1/7/2020 at 4:46 PM, DeltaT13 said: 2020 would fit into this graph like a glove. Sadly..... It looks like an ugly 4 year return interval on very mild winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This is the one, not a lot science behind it but a pattern is a pattern. I'd love to see that pattern get smashed with a strong February. It's tough to recover from a virtually snowless Dec 15-Jan 15th time period. That's prime climo, especially for Buffalo for big snows. Once you hit late March highs start to be in the 40s, need well below average temps to make it happen. We have a 4-6 week window to basically get 100" of snow, unlikely to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Getting Buffalo to average is gonna be next to impossible. Syracuse runs late but is starting at a deficit. Here in Roc we still have a good path (at least on paper). Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 My Sunday Update, pattern change still coming? A few chances at synoptic snow, and a good chance for LES. (Flow mainly NW) CPC analogs: January 23rd setup GFS ENS Jan 21-28: EPS on the other hand shows a quick glance at cold weather, but no real pattern change. CIPS ANALOGS: And finally CPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Getting Buffalo to average is gonna be next to impossible. Syracuse runs late but is starting at a deficit. Here in Roc we still have a good path (at least on paper). Lol With an unfrozen lake it won't be. Usually by this time the lake is 70% frozen. One event and we could be at our seasonal total. It's still in the 40s and unlikely to freeze at all this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: With an unfrozen lake it won't be. Usually by this time the lake is 70% frozen. One event and we could be at our seasonal total. It's still in the 40s and unlikely to freeze at all this year. That’d be the case in every mild winter. You’re gonna need 40 in February and 40 in March. Heavy lift but do able. It’ll be epic if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: With an unfrozen lake it won't be. Usually by this time the lake is 70% frozen. One event and we could be at our seasonal total. It's still in the 40s and unlikely to freeze at all this year. 26 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Getting Buffalo to average is gonna be next to impossible. Syracuse runs late but is starting at a deficit. Here in Roc we still have a good path (at least on paper). Lol Yea hitting average this winter is going to be a feat lol I mean we’re stuck in a pattern where storms are cutting left to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On CPC and EPS... All that cold air off the coast of BC is going to ruin any sustained cold. It will lead to a huge ridge too far east that will roll out the warmth across the nation. The pattern is just a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That’d be the case in every mild winter. You’re gonna need 40 in February and 40 in March. Heavy lift but do able. It’ll be epic if it happens. Yeah, but most mild winters are mild for the majority of them. We don't have a strong Nino/NIna dictating something like that this year. I expect us to have a pretty cold 2nd half of winter. We get a full month of arctic air and a wide open lake and anything can happen, although still unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: All that cold air off the coast of BC is going to ruin any sustained cold. It will lead to a huge ridge too far east that will roll out the warmth across the nation. The pattern is just a mess. I think you're right with the initial surge of cold air, but still think the longwave trough sets up from Dakotas to NE by the end of the month and sticks for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Another impressive run on the gfs..See what the rest of 0z suite shows, not that it means much lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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