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Upstate/Eastern New York


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:mapsnow: This is the EPS and only 10 days out, right at the tail end of its wheel house. Most other guidance is hopping on board with this look too with MJO cycling into phase 7. If you get the cold, the snow will come. Especially with 40 degree lakes. I expect the pattern to start changing around the 19-21st. A few days later then last year.

image.png.9c644c3135414016b844e2fcfb981a94.png

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

:mapsnow: This is the EPS and only 10 days out, right at the tail end of its wheel house. Most other guidance is hopping on board with this look too with MJO cycling into phase 7. If you get the cold, the snow will come. Especially with 40 degree lakes. I expect the pattern to start changing around the 19-21st. A few days later then last year.

image.png.9c644c3135414016b844e2fcfb981a94.png

Want some unicorn eye candy? Check out the last few hours of the 18z GFS...

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Good ole flood watch..

.FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York...including the following
  counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego.

* From Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

* Periods of rain will develop across the region, becoming
  widespread and heavy Saturday afternoon through Saturday
  night. Total rainfall amounts may reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches.
  Snowpack across the higher terrain will also melt, resulting
  in further runoff.

* Heavy rain falling on nearly saturated ground will result in
  excessive runoff. This may result in flooding of low lying areas
  and urban areas. Flooding is also possible on some larger rivers
  as well, including the Black River

Current snowpack..

sd1_today (2).jpg

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Rent out a bus, Delta...because we're all going with you.

This actually isnt the worst idea.  Upstate NY Weather forum ski trip??   

Although, we failed to even get our Upstate NY dinner and meet greet off the ground last year (or was that the year before) so perhaps this asking a bit too much.  Would be fun, especially if we had a storm to geek out about.  

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22 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

This actually isnt the worst idea.  Upstate NY Weather forum ski trip??   

Although, we failed to even get our Upstate NY dinner and meet greet off the ground last year (or was that the year before) so perhaps this asking a bit too much.  Would be fun, especially if we had a storm to geek out about.  

I wouldn't be the only fool standing outside examining snowflakes and taking a gazillion measurements of snow on the ground and acting like I've never seen snow before!

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59 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

This actually isnt the worst idea.  Upstate NY Weather forum ski trip??   

Although, we failed to even get our Upstate NY dinner and meet greet off the ground last year (or was that the year before) so perhaps this asking a bit too much.  Would be fun, especially if we had a storm to geek out about.  

I don't remember anyone getting one together. Me and Westerly have met up for chases several times and have become good friends, even borrowed his ladder to paint my stairway. Chases are fun, but chases with fellow weather weenies are the best. I remember us pulling over in the middle of no where jumping into a 4 foot pile of snow. Normal people don't get the same way with snow. ^_^

Would be cool to get a dinner during a lake effect event.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't remember anyone getting one together. Me and Westerly have met up for chases several times and have become good friends, even borrowed his ladder to paint my stairway. Chases are fun, but chases with fellow weather weenies are the best. I remember us pulling over in the middle of no where jumping into a 4 foot pile of snow. Normal people don't get the same way with snow. ^_^

Would be cool to get a dinner during a lake effect event.

We definitely didnt get one together but we briefly talked about it.  I think we struggled to find a centralized location.  It was a couple pages of chatter a few years back but would still be an interesting idea.  

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14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

We got about 2.5 inches in the Bville area. Is it normal for the village to get more than farther north in Lysander? It seems like there has been more there than here often this year. It seems like the NW winds focus it more on Southwestern Onondaga county.

It's the "new normal" the past couple/few years. I'm sure there's a global warming, errrr climate change, errrr extreme weather explanation if we tighten down the tin foil hats enough...  certainly couldn't be random variability or some sort of gaussian distribution.

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31.1° and light freezing drizzle...

Unfortunately have to drive in this crap as my pup had a seizure late last night, I freaked the fook out, lol  The unfortunate part of living in the country is not having any emergency vets or hospitals near by .

Ice accumulating on the colder surfaces..

IMG_20200110_081240.jpg.633ed74697c2a39d

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I hope your dog is alright.  We’re dealing with one with cancer right now.  We’ve been taking her to the oncologist at the Veternary Medical Center of CNY on Bridge Street so I’ve become familiar with that area. We know what you’re going through with a sick pup.

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On the weather front..

Nevertheless, there is quite a large spread in the model guidance to
the exact synoptic details with this upper level system. However, in
general the low pressure system corresponding to this upper level
feature, acts to push the high pressure out of the area Wednesday
night and provide the weather occurring Thursday into Friday. The
low passing through could be an intense system, as prior to its
arrival a strong wind event may occur and as the system passes rain
changing over to snow is possible. Behind this system, lake effect
snow may develop east of the lakes by the end of late next week.
Will have to keep an eye on this late week system as we get closer.
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31.1° and light freezing drizzle...
Unfortunately have to drive in this crap as my pup had a seizure late last night, I freaked the fook out, lol  The unfortunate part of living in the country is not having any emergency vets or hospitals near by .
Ice accumulating on the colder surfaces..
IMG_20200110_081240.jpg.633ed74697c2a39ddaa26c03c2099427.jpg&key=b99922978be1c8d97a451e51de73105358075e80e3cb52ff81628bfc3ffd3b97
I hope he/she is OK because I know what my pup means to me so I hope all is well!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

31.1° and light freezing drizzle...

Unfortunately have to drive in this crap as my pup had a seizure late last night, I freaked the fook out, lol  The unfortunate part of living in the country is not having any emergency vets or hospitals near by .

Ice accumulating on the colder surfaces..

IMG_20200110_081240.jpg.633ed74697c2a39d

We have two big boys of our own and while we have 3 kids as well they are every bit a part of the family. We have a great vet in Hamburg Dr. Adorno. He loves large breed dogs which is great for us. Hope your pup will be ok Wolfie.

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Thanks guys, appreciate it..

I'm 37 with no kids , not sure if I'll ever have any tbh, life is hard enough..

I do have 5 pets though, which are basically like my children, it may sound messed up but I show more love and compassion to animals then I do to the human race.. Animals are as loyal as it gets..

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