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Upstate/Eastern New York


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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Imagine if this was snow

image.thumb.png.e0324283c7a83a8ddd40caf740df12e8.png

One can only dream.

The source of this moisture is the Gulf of Mexico, right? It's not impossible for gulf moisture to fall as snow, but it's not a frequent occurrence. More likely, when we get crazy PWAT it's accompanied by warmer air with a higher PWAT value. I guess I prefer a downpour to an overrunning scenario with that water falling into 32F surface temps, but it would be cool to get true snowstorm from moisture like this.

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19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

HUGE improvement in indices today. Still no NAO so we are going to get the cold eventually, modeling rushes it a little bit. But major gains in the pacific. As wolfie pointed out I'd favor NW/W flow for LES if this holds true in 10-14 days.

image.thumb.png.2f3051ce37ad4b6ca6d554736d84ae08.png

image.thumb.png.2ebea44bf7929b9bd57cd589e0ddee70.png

That would be excellent!!! I can go from soft, sloppy mud to frozen glacier mud!!! Either way that does most if us no good.

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18 minutes ago, WNash said:

One can only dream.

The source of this moisture is the Gulf of Mexico, right? It's not impossible for gulf moisture to fall as snow, but it's not a frequent occurrence. More likely, when we get crazy PWAT it's accompanied by warmer air with a higher PWAT value. I guess I prefer a downpour to an overrunning scenario with that water falling into 32F surface temps, but it would be cool to get true snowstorm from moisture like this.

Whenever I see the videos of snow falling from deep south systems, I always think the snowfall looks amazing. The moisture content creates some gigantic snowflakes down there!

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From the GL section as I talked about last night.

The 00z EPS, in a big change in recent days, went to a broad west coast ridging and Alaska ridging out in day 10-15. PNA trended back to neutral on the teleconnection charts. So the hope there would be to not have an amplified western PNA ridge. If that sort of look verified as shown on the EPS it might be an active clipper/hybrid pattern versus the true dreaded CAD when the PNA ridging becomes more amplified and east based.

 

Also that sort of pattern would be good for the lake effect belts.

 

I've read some LR gurus wondering if EPS is rushing pattern change some, but it's done pretty well thus far this season.

 

Edit: As posted above, that look would more likely favor the east coast for larger synoptic systems but still no signs of a -NAO.

5cea44ca9211ed1855d2d4115740b5c1.jpg&key=cb6afe307d9239cb7841d1e0d4a2e8849f8d5336e2239ab83941d0b92e18c8c5b4a4f98537d1196629029a4a0f3f5ec5.jpg&key=869b19d1fba0e4864f4caa3dcb8c30892de0f900b8f681c210f7953fcee025fbfc2fea79b7d2d826fed0d547ad8e635c.jpg&key=c379813f61fc405e2f0d6672d335e4bc01bde5c2cd0cc0071ba16051a0664a61a7b4d2a514489fea92277b40c74dbc48.jpg&key=eda29ec3a9c91a23df5a2e5d1211bfa80c53c6564212a67bc88d70ef9f0992f9

 

Great pattern for the snow belts East of the lakes. Not sure I’m excited to go into a cold dry pattern (Rochester anyway). Oh well, beats this horribleness. 

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, what a nightmare rainfall map for the Tug.

Not a nightmare for here.  we could use a good gullywasher to get rid of the salt encasement on everything. 

I picked up a Trace of snow yday IMBY, keeping "the snowpack" to sub 1"...while the new snowbelts of downtown Syracuse probably had 3-4" by my calibrated eyeball at work.  

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23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Not a nightmare for here.  we could use a good gullywasher to get rid of the salt encasement on everything. 

I picked up a Trace of snow yday IMBY, keeping "the snowpack" to sub 1"...while the new snowbelts of downtown Syracuse probably had 3-4" by my calibrated eyeball at work.  

We got about 2.5 inches in the Bville area. Is it normal for the village to get more than farther north in Lysander? It seems like there has been more there than here often this year. It seems like the NW winds focus it more on Southwestern Onondaga county.

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