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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

6z is just as far west but also has the freezing rain signature still...however the rest of the run after mid next week looks cold and more chances for snow...i believe the euro shows the same?

While that's true you have to remember temps will be in the 50's, so the ground won't be that cold...Even when it is ice temps are in the low 30s. 

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21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam not that close to any frozen precipitation..

namconus_ref_frzn_us_44 (2).png

Ok I'll bite...look at the HP to the north and the Bermuda to the SE...the low placement with that particular placement to the north doesn't jive...one would think the only trajectory from the low is straight through NY state not lower Michigan...we toss the NAM

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Gotta give credit where credit is due lol

Euro had this in Illinois 2 days ago.. I'm not sure it makes it that far west but it won't be far off..

GZ_D5_PN_072_0000 (2).gif

It's all about the HP placement...with the GOOFUS placement of the HP it's in eastern Canada near NB...on the NAM it's due north of Lake Ontario...thats the big difference whether the northern part of the CWA gets below freezing or not.

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It seems like perhaps after the middle of next week the cold pushes down some, but the SE ridge remains stubborn. I think this will bring us better opportunities for wintry weather (instead of suppression if there was no ridge) but also keep us at risk of cutters.

I would probably prefer a clipper pattern at this point for some smaller snows, lake effect potential, and a preserved snowpack. But I'm not sure that is in the cards for this winter. At least not yet.

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Obviously can't take the gfs verbatim but after this next system it doesn't have much rain the rest of it's run..

It drops down 3 HPs of at least 1045mb, including one near 1060 mb lol Could spell suppression. 

Also looked like a decent pattern for some NW flow LES, at least on this run .

:lol:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_64.png

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12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Obviously can't take the gfs verbatim but after this next system it doesn't have much rain the rest of it's run..

It drops down 3 HPs of at least 1045mb, including one near 1060 mb lol Could spell suppression. 

Also looked like a decent pattern for some NW flow LES, at least on this run .

:lol:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_64.png

If that LP actually ends up there over Hudson Bay it would be a clipper parade

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From the GL section as I talked about last night.

The 00z EPS, in a big change in recent days, went to a broad west coast ridging and Alaska ridging out in day 10-15. PNA trended back to neutral on the teleconnection charts. So the hope there would be to not have an amplified western PNA ridge. If that sort of look verified as shown on the EPS it might be an active clipper/hybrid pattern versus the true dreaded CAD when the PNA ridging becomes more amplified and east based.

 

Also that sort of pattern would be good for the lake effect belts.

 

I've read some LR gurus wondering if EPS is rushing pattern change some, but it's done pretty well thus far this season.

 

Edit: As posted above, that look would more likely favor the east coast for larger synoptic systems but still no signs of a -NAO.

5cea44ca9211ed1855d2d4115740b5c1.jpg&key=cb6afe307d9239cb7841d1e0d4a2e8849f8d5336e2239ab83941d0b92e18c8c5b4a4f98537d1196629029a4a0f3f5ec5.jpg&key=869b19d1fba0e4864f4caa3dcb8c30892de0f900b8f681c210f7953fcee025fbfc2fea79b7d2d826fed0d547ad8e635c.jpg&key=c379813f61fc405e2f0d6672d335e4bc01bde5c2cd0cc0071ba16051a0664a61a7b4d2a514489fea92277b40c74dbc48.jpg&key=eda29ec3a9c91a23df5a2e5d1211bfa80c53c6564212a67bc88d70ef9f0992f9

 

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