CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 What a Pig of a UL HP as it won't f'in budge and its been weeks and weeks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Came so close..lol Got down to 0.3° overnight, took longer to clear out than I expected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Now thats what you call a wall of HP's pf 1040 or higher, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: 6z is just as far west but also has the freezing rain signature still...however the rest of the run after mid next week looks cold and more chances for snow...i believe the euro shows the same? While that's true you have to remember temps will be in the 50's, so the ground won't be that cold...Even when it is ice temps are in the low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'd put lots of money up against anyone who thinks we hit the 60F mark on Sat cause that's apparently what everyone is saying and it's quite comical actually but what do I know, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 It will be close.. Nws has 56°-58° in the forecast... This is actually 1am Sunday lmao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 ksyr is definitely taking a run at 60 lol Saturday Rain. High near 59. Southwest wind 7 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 At hour 66 of the GOOFUS it has KBUF at 33 degrees, 00z to be exact. That's perilously close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Nam not that close to any frozen precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam not that close to any frozen precipitation.. Ok I'll bite...look at the HP to the north and the Bermuda to the SE...the low placement with that particular placement to the north doesn't jive...one would think the only trajectory from the low is straight through NY state not lower Michigan...we toss the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Bro it's no different than the gfs lol Gfs is just colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Canadian was even farther west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gotta give credit where credit is due lol Euro had this in Illinois 2 days ago.. I'm not sure it makes it that far west but it won't be far off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gotta give credit where credit is due lol Euro had this in Illinois 2 days ago.. I'm not sure it makes it that far west but it won't be far off.. It's all about the HP placement...with the GOOFUS placement of the HP it's in eastern Canada near NB...on the NAM it's due north of Lake Ontario...thats the big difference whether the northern part of the CWA gets below freezing or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 At this point I hope it's further west so we get warmer with less rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, vortmax said: At this point I hope it's further west so we get warmer with less rain. Agreed...the 12z shows more if the same after this storm...cutter, tiny wave, cutter...thats out to 1/20...beginning to wonder if this will ever change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs has some monster HPs dropping out of Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, vortmax said: At this point I hope it's further west so we get warmer with less rain. That's what I've been saying too. The crocuses are going to come out pretty soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 It seems like perhaps after the middle of next week the cold pushes down some, but the SE ridge remains stubborn. I think this will bring us better opportunities for wintry weather (instead of suppression if there was no ridge) but also keep us at risk of cutters. I would probably prefer a clipper pattern at this point for some smaller snows, lake effect potential, and a preserved snowpack. But I'm not sure that is in the cards for this winter. At least not yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Obviously can't take the gfs verbatim but after this next system it doesn't have much rain the rest of it's run.. It drops down 3 HPs of at least 1045mb, including one near 1060 mb lol Could spell suppression. Also looked like a decent pattern for some NW flow LES, at least on this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Obviously can't take the gfs verbatim but after this next system it doesn't have much rain the rest of it's run.. It drops down 3 HPs of at least 1045mb, including one near 1060 mb lol Could spell suppression. Also looked like a decent pattern for some NW flow LES, at least on this run . If that LP actually ends up there over Hudson Bay it would be a clipper parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS was terrible for this next storm. Was literally the last one to catch on. Even the NAM beat it...Tossing for GEFS at the very least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS has a dump of arctic air over us at the end of next week. 850 temperatures around -25 will give delta Ts close to -30 over the lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS was terrible for this next storm. Was literally the last one to catch on. Even the NAM beat it...Tossing for GEFS at the very least. Does the euro show any systems of note over the next 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Does the euro show any systems of note over the next 10? Another cutter at the end of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Another cutter at the end of the week... Wasn't that a snow storm just yesterday??? Grrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wasn't that a snow storm just yesterday??? Grrrrrr Euro vs GFS. I wonder which one is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 From the GL section as I talked about last night. The 00z EPS, in a big change in recent days, went to a broad west coast ridging and Alaska ridging out in day 10-15. PNA trended back to neutral on the teleconnection charts. So the hope there would be to not have an amplified western PNA ridge. If that sort of look verified as shown on the EPS it might be an active clipper/hybrid pattern versus the true dreaded CAD when the PNA ridging becomes more amplified and east based. Also that sort of pattern would be good for the lake effect belts. I've read some LR gurus wondering if EPS is rushing pattern change some, but it's done pretty well thus far this season. Edit: As posted above, that look would more likely favor the east coast for larger synoptic systems but still no signs of a -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Imagine if this was snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 HUGE improvement in indices today. Still no NAO so we are going to get the cold eventually, modeling rushes it a little bit. But major gains in the pacific. As wolfie pointed out I'd favor NW/W flow for LES if this holds true in 10-14 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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