TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: You know ever since Matt showed up 2 years ago.. 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Alrighty Tug, the posters from Upstate have come together and we've decided to take executive action to kick you out of NYS. We wish you good fortune in your future endeavors. 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: You have been given only 3 choices in your quest to find a new home, anywhere in the mid-Atlantic, the New England area or the UP of Michigan (yrs I'm aware they get alot of snow now, however once Matt arrives the storm track will inevitably shift in our favor with West to southwest winds funneling cold air all winter long... Bahaha! This whole conversation taking place while I was working all morning made me chuckle during my lunch break. I could move to the top of a volcano that gets tons of snow...but then the volcano would erupt as soon as I got there and melt all the snow around my house..and I'd probably be dead too, so there's that......................... Really nice snow Lake effect snow band moving through here now. Some of our best snows of the winter off and on throughout the morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The 12z suite of models (euro and GFS) could not be further apart. One thing I question about the euro is how it is pushing the High in Canada northward as a much weaker storm comes into the area...that seems peculiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 The GEFS show the SE persisting its entire run. If its true we likely end up with +10-15 departures for the month, unprecedented stuff. Same anomalies as Feb of 2014 and March of 2012. Saturday has a chance at 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GEFS show the SE persisting its entire run. If its true we likely end up with +10-15 departures for the month, unprecedented stuff. Same anomalies as Feb of 2014 and March of 2012. Saturday has a chance at 60. Im telling you I read somewhere about the GEFS still using the old algorithms...it can't be that the short term euro is right but the EPS is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GEFS show the SE persisting its entire run. If its true we likely end up with +10-15 departures for the month, unprecedented stuff. Same anomalies as Feb of 2014 and March of 2012. Saturday has a chance at 60. This seems to be happening way too often this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 While the hills of the UP may be cashing in , Marquette proper doesn't have as much snow as u would think, especially with all these cutters..They have 55" as of January 5th..But they have at least kept the snow on the ground lol Half of their December Snowfall came in the first 2 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: While the hills of the UP may be cashing in , Marquette proper doesn't have as much snow as u would think, especially with all these cutters..They have 55" as of January 5th..But they have at least kept the snow on the ground lol Yeah the UP has the best snow retention east of rockies. Once they get a base, they don't lose it until May. Where Bo lives is the best spot. He rarely drops below 3' throughout the winter, and 80-90% of the winters gets above a 50" base, sometimes 60++ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This seems to be happening way too often this century. Well Feb 2014 was due to negative departures. I think we finished at -12.3? This was due to SSW event that brought the PV to the great lakes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold_wave February then proved to be the most brutal month of the season. A weak upper level jet over the Northern Pacific not only helped to keep the West Coast ridge intact, but likely played a role in supporting an exaggerated high latitude block over North America. This pattern was further locked in place by the displacement of the much misunderstood polar vortex which drifted south of James Bay for a period of several weeks. The very highly amplified pattern kept a near constant feed of frigid arctic air in place over our region, which plummeted our mercury to levels that averaged 15 degrees F below normal. This is extraordinary considering that the coldest weather of the year occurs during the second half of January and the first half of February, so to be that much below those ‘normal’ values is quite impressive. The near unprecedented cold was accompanied by several storms that generated one of the snowiest months of the winter. Snowfall totals for the month of February were at least two feet above normal in most areas. It is also worth noting that while the colder, more southerly storm tracks generated higher snowfall amounts, it also kept our region from experiencing the usual number of high wind events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: While the hills of the UP may be cashing in , Marquette proper doesn't have as much snow as u would think, especially with all these cutters..They have 55" as of January 5th..But they have at least kept the snow on the ground lol Some of the cities in Michigan like Traverse City and Marquette can get some good downsloping from southerly winds that warm them up quickly. Very similar to what happens in Upstate New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Euro finds away to give us a snowstorm day 9 lol But I'm not sure it's right day 1 lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 U can see on the gfs we have many strong HPs dropping down from Canada, just need good timing lol On the gfs verbatim it misses everyone of them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro finds away to give us a snowstorm day 9 lol But I'm not sure it's right day 1 lol Lock it in wolf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 @Tom Niziol - Only 28.1% #snow cover across the US right now, have to go way back to 2012 to see less on this date at 12.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro finds away to give us a snowstorm day 9 lol But I'm not sure it's right day 1 lol If you do enough error carried forward maybe it ends up with the correct solution in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 WAYYY out there. But GEFS AND GEPS 2 weeks from today starts the pattern change. The western ridge breaks down and a piece of the PV is over hudson bay in cyclonic flow. Much better pacific and Alaska warms up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Winds really starting to pick up.. Feels a bit uncomfortable lol Big drop in DPs under NW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 It's coming, best they've looked in awhile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Tonight is a below zero type of night.. Forecast low is 6 with"mostly cloudy" skies, light winds. We almost always clear out overnight unless it's snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I’m starting to get excited for February. I really believe it will be a great month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m starting to get excited for February. I really believe it will be a great month. Buffalos snowiest Feb is 57-58 which I believe is one of the analogs used for this season in LR outlooks. Give me the cold and the snow will follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 Break out your rafts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Break out your rafts Lol now where's that ark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Weird looking bands for a NW flow lol Some light snow just started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Of course we JP in NY when it's liquid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Back to back runs GFS brings that slug of freezing rain closer our way... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs did trend considerably west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like we will get out of this crap pattern late next week. Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs did trend considerably west.. 6z is just as far west but also has the freezing rain signature still...however the rest of the run after mid next week looks cold and more chances for snow...i believe the euro shows the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro looks meh after this system...in fact out 10 days it has a bunch of nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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