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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

About an inch new in Syracuse this morning from squalls. I’m here for work this week-hopefully there’s some excitement today. I expect bare ground in Jan where I’m from but up here that’s depressing. 

We had Winter back in November and early Dec.  We're ramping up now for the Spring lawn and garden season.  

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Yeah last night's event the European had a cutter, gfs never bought into the phase. I guess it goes Both ways..The internet"experts" definitely think the gfs has been Superior...

500 mb obviously doesn't tell the whole story especially when it comes to sensible weather. 

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28 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think the GFS has out performed the Euro 9 times out of 10 this fall/winter.  Surprised to hear you say this.  

Euro over the last 5 years has a pretty large percentage lead over every other model, nothing really comes close to it. GFS is actually 3rd to the UKIE. This was written in 2016, but GFS was actually in 4th place for awhile.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/the-us-weather-model-is-now-the-fourth-best-in-the-world/

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esoscale Discussion 0007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2020

   Areas affected...much of  New York...northeast Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Snow Squall 

   Valid 081137Z - 081730Z

   SUMMARY...A few small snow-squalls are expected to persist through
   the morning hours from northeast Pennsylvania across much of central
   and eastern New York.

   DISCUSSION...Extremely cold temperatures aloft continue to
   overspread the region with -40 C at 500 mb. Meanwhile, surface
   dewpoints remain in the mid 20s F, with boundary-layer RH otherwise
   high. With such cold temperatures aloft, lake-induced instability
   has developed with an occasional lightning flash noted over the past
   few hours.

   While surface convergence will not be particularly strong or focused
   beneath the upper vort, gradually veering and increasing low-level
   winds will maintain generally weak convergence, possibly aided by
   any surface lows/waves that develop off of Lake Ontario. Given
   continued cooling aloft, and possible pockets of surface heating
   later today, localized squalls of heavy snow may survive or
   redevelop downstream of Lake Ontario through the morning hours.
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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Models are actually trending in a more interesting direction suddenly. Maybe a Hail Mary? 

A few years back I remember a winter where something would pop a week out that looked great, only to lose it or it trended away from us during the mid range then as the event came closer it trended back towards the look we originally saw...maybe this will be the same...

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42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro over the last 5 years has a pretty large percentage lead over every other model, nothing really comes close to it. GFS is actually 3rd to the UKIE. This was written in 2016, but GFS was actually in 4th place for awhile.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/the-us-weather-model-is-now-the-fourth-best-in-the-world/

I agree on a longer time frame but the past 3 months I thought the GFS did well. 

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

HP is 100 miles to far north and Bermuda high a little to strong and stubborn lol

 

but I have it on good authority (25 years of reading assinine internet climate and meteorology-related posts) that the cold pressing arctic HP always wins out.

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