Geez150 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yes that's right, but when is the million dollar question? Starting to think like others have said by the time the mjo gets to a favorable phase and other pieces fall into place the time will have ran out and just end up with a cold wet spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Hopefully we get a February like 2006 but I'm not betting on anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm confused...the eps and gefs are showing changes in 10 days and the 18z GFS shows several chances for snow...as Aaron rogers says R E L A X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 If you want a chuckle, check out the Mid Atlantic Sub. Measuring with protractors, talk of "roads caving" from a dusting of snow, schools closing from a few inches, and SIXTY pages long for this one event. I guess that's what happens when you are snow-starved. If things don't shake up, we may end up doing the same pretty soon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: If you want a chuckle, check out the Mid Atlantic Sub. Measuring with protractors, talk of "roads caving" from a dusting of snow, schools closing from a few inches, and SIXTY pages long for this one event. I guess that's what happens when you are snow-starved. If things don't shake up, we may end up doing the same pretty soon. We’ve done well over 120 pages (in 2 threads) since December 20th and most of us have gotten less than 5 inches. I think we are worse at this point. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: We’ve done well over 120 pages (in 2 threads) since December 20th and most of us have gotten less than 5 inches. I think we are worse at this point. Lol But....they've done 60 since this past Saturday...AND we only have page that we post to....BUT...they have many more people than we do...sooooooo...I don't know? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: But....they've done 60 since this past Saturday...AND we only have page that we post to....BUT...they have many more people than we do...sooooooo...I don't know? But after their 60 pages at leas they have snow on the ground. Haha. We just wishfully look at storm 268 hours out and nothing even materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 If I start measuring snow with a toothpick...well, then you know.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: But after their 60 pages at leas they have snow on the ground. Haha. We just wishfully look at storm 268 hours out and nothing even materializes. Their snow will melt by Thursday whereas ours will last at least until Friday, lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Their snow will melt by Thursday whereas ours will last at least until Friday, lol. Bahaha...and then we will get MORE RAIN than them too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: If you want a chuckle, check out the Mid Atlantic Sub. Measuring with protractors, talk of "roads caving" from a dusting of snow, schools closing from a few inches, and SIXTY pages long for this one event. I guess that's what happens when you are snow-starved. If things don't shake up, we may end up doing the same pretty soon. There are reports of marker flags in the enemy trenches. Queue up the movie Gallipoli to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 New CFS weeklies are very warm weeks 1-2 . then get colder starting week 3 and indicating a pattern shift at that time. West coast ridge hint at weeks 4 and 5. wish i could post the pics but +10-15 2m temps weeks 1 and 2. Crazy at this time of the year with +10-15 500mb heights. Almost spring like pattern. insane. Then we should cash in late feb. But next 2 weeks look anamolously warm and wet. rain , mix, and junk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: New CFS weeklies are very warm weeks 1-2 . then get colder starting week 3 and indicating a pattern shift at that time. West coast ridge hint at weeks 4 and 5. CFS weeklies predicted a cold January, after never seeing them predict cold in all my years of tracking weather for winter. To finally do it in what is going to be a record warm month, I'm tossing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: CFS weeklies predicted a cold January, after never seeing them predict cold in all my years of tracking weather for winter. To finally do it in what is going to be a record warm month, I'm tossing. when did it predict a cold january. its last run was average if not slightly above average heights and temps!? for weeks 1-2 same timefram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: when did it predict a cold january. its last run was average if not slightly above average heights and temps!? for weeks 1-2 same timefram From Dec 31st for the first 2 weeks in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Well we can all agree on one thing... This weekend is gonna be a good old fashion wash out! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 This thing is going to be so close to me, I may set my alarm early to grab it. You can see it near Sarnia Ontario https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 There we go...I am just rooting for it to go as far north and west as possible now. Keep moving that heavy rain away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 This thing is going to be so close to me, I may set my alarm early to grab it. You can see it near Sarnia Ontario https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET RGEM is only one I’m seeing intensify that blob like that over Erie. Rest are just showing some stray streamers passing through. Guess it’ll depend how much the lake can fire that disturbance up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: RGEM is only one I’m seeing intensify that blob like that over Erie. Rest are just showing some stray streamers passing through. Guess it’ll depend how much the lake can fire that disturbance up. . It's already fired up. Go look at the radar. This has it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: There we go...I am just rooting for it to go as far north and west as possible now. Keep moving that heavy rain away. If we cant have snow some flooding would at least be interesting and something to track. Would love to see us get more than 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: If we cant have snow some flooding would at least be interesting and something to track. Would love to see us get more than 3 inches. I forget...is it you that enjoys the damaging wind events too? If so, a move to California would work well. You can pay millions of dollars for a house to catch fire, slide down a cliff in a mudslide, break apart in an earthquake, get trampled by Godzilla... More rain to me is boring, since we can get it all 12 months of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I forget...is it you that enjoys the damaging wind events too? If so, a move to California would work well. You can pay millions of dollars for a house to catch fire, slide down a cliff in a mudslide, break apart in an earthquake, get trampled by Godzilla... Yes, I think extreme weather is fascinating. I thought all weather lovers kind of understood that. Strong winds, flooding rains, crippling heat, frigid cold, severe storms, droughts, blizzards, ice events....I find them all interesting in their own way. I love to see the way the world reacts to this unstoppable force. I Don’t hope my home is damaged but my love and interest of weather always wants to experience the most intense thing a weather event can bring, and if I end up with some collateral damage along the way, I understand that too. That said we live in an incredibly safe location (upstate ny that is). When I say I want to see heavy rain and floods it’s cool because the creek on my street grows to 5 times it’s size and some local roads get water covered (that’s about the extent of it) I’m not rooting for biblical flooding and the death of thousands of people. It’s a fun little winter storm, heavy rains are better than gray skies and nothing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I forget...is it you that enjoys the damaging wind events too? If so, a move to California would work well. You can pay millions of dollars for a house to catch fire, slide down a cliff in a mudslide, break apart in an earthquake, get trampled by Godzilla... Also, I’d love to own a seasonal home in the mountains of Cali to ride out brutal winter storms. Sounds perfect actually. The other 8 months of the year when nothing happen would be lame though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yes, I think extreme weather is fascinating. I thought all weather lovers kind of understood that. Strong winds, flooding rains, crippling heat, frigid cold, severe storms, droughts, blizzards, ice events....I find them all interesting in their own way. I love to see the way the world reacts to this unstoppable force. I Don’t hope my home is damaged but my love and interest of weather always wants to experience the most intense thing a weather event can bring, and if I end up with some collateral damage along the way, I understand that too. That said we live in an incredibly safe location (upstate ny that is). When I say I want to see heavy rain and floods it’s cool because the creek on my street grows to 5 times it’s size and some local roads get water covered (that’s about the extent of it) I’m not rooting for biblical flooding and the death of thousands of people. It’s a fun little winter storm, heavy rains are better than gray skies and nothing. 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Also, I’d love to own a seasonal home in the mountains of Cali to ride out brutal winter storms. Sounds perfect actually. The other 8 months of the year when nothing happen would be lame though. It is really neat to watch water moving at full force. High winds would be one my least favorite weather types...mostly because I am a bit traumatized from my childhood home experience. We lived on top of a Hill and my bedroom had the woods/Ridgeline behind it. I would hear the roaring and snapping of trees. Every year, we would have several trees come down. However, when I lived right by Lake Michigan, I was fascinated by the wind there and how that lake would turn into a might ocean. So, I see your point, and know as a weather guru I am fascinated by all weather even if it's not my favorite. As for snow...it's my main gig...I used to play Jim Cantore (before he started his big gig) and over dramatize snow reporting to the HARSH conditions. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I still play Jum Cantore. “WHOA!!!?!What was that? Thunder?” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Some lightning strikes reported just to my North earlier this morning as well as a few off L Erie... Just got my snow squall alert, my day is now complete... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Ripping out, couple inches an hour.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Squalls mean business today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ripping out, couple inches an hour.. This is what it looks like...this is what I feels like...pictures are all I have to hang on to... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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