wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Euro goes right over BUF. Keeps everything all liquid for everyone except maybe Plattsburgh Pauly. This ones toast. Wouldn't take much of a shift at all, granted were talking ice here lol Euro is forced to cut this across the southern tier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Lake effect snows will once again develop tonight. Accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible on the Tug Hill by Wednesday morning. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Accumulating lake snows will persist on Wednesday. Total 24 hour accumulations will range from 3 to 6 inches with the highest amounts found near and on the Tug Hill plateau. Some of the heavier snow showers could be accompanied by wind gusts of 30 to 35 which would greatly reduce the visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nws doesn't even mention ice lol They are calling for rain changing to snow on the backside.. While there are still some differences between the various medium range guidance packages as to the timing of when the moderate to heavy rain will change over to snow...there is growing consensus that the transition to wet snow will take place Saturday night or early Sunday. The various medium range models than tend to diverge late Saturday night and Sunday as to the speed of the cold air moving across the region in the wake of the exiting storm system. In any case...the steady widespread rain will eventually transition to a brief period of heavy wet snow. As the cold air deepens later Sunday and Sunday night...widespread snow will taper off and become fluffier in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Get ready for your phones to blow up lol A potent northern stream shortwave and associated cold front will sweep across the region late tonight/early Wednesday, ushering in a much colder airmass. The surge of colder air will support a period lake enhanced snows late tonight and Wednesday. There looks to be an increasing risk for a snow squalls with the cold frontal passage with increasing instability along and just behind the cold front 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The one thing about this whole thing that gives me pause is the "Bermuda high". It is on the east coast until Thursday then goes off shore and quickly becomes a large and powerful high in 48 hours? Meanwhile a 1035 or 1040 established Canadian high will just step aside? That last run of the EURO has the high in the right postion but allows the low (997 btw) to go far enough north? Ehhhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Eps not that much different from the gfs OP.. Obviously I don't know where it goes from here.. Eps just a little north and weaker with HP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Gfs mean and spread still pretty far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs mean and spread still pretty far west.. We need that Bermuda high to shift 100 miles south and we'd be in the game...without it I pull out the jet skis Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Another minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Well would you look at that, DC's even getting in on some snow action today with WWA posted. Well good for them and at least someone in the East is seeing snow, lol, cause it sure isn't the lower Great Lakes, but that may change just a bit this evening throughout Wednesday withnowrhaps some true LE ona WNW flow for hrs and hrs but I never believe it till its here cause it can literallybe 3 miles to my North, or it'll be 3 to my South so its no no lock for me, a WNW wind flow, that's for sure!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Euro goes right over BUF. Keeps everything all liquid for everyone except maybe Plattsburgh Pauly. This ones toast. Euro is definitely not what it used to be thats why nothings toast to me yet and its only Tuesday morning with lots to be resolved!, IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 300 miles further North with this system coming up from the South, and we woulda had a decent phase on our hands but we need to watch this system very closely I think!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Well, this doesnt mean it won't ever snow again. There's always Feb & March... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 31 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Well would you look at that, DC's even getting in on some snow action today with WWA posted. Well good for them and at least someone in the East is seeing snow, lol, cause it sure isn't the lower Great Lakes, but that may change just a bit this evening throughout Wednesday withnowrhaps some true LE ona WNW flow for hrs and hrs but I never believe it till its here cause it can literallybe 3 miles to my North, or it'll be 3 to my South so its no no lock for me, a WNW wind flow, that's for sure! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Kbuf doesn't sound to enthused, which may be a good thing lol A very brief shot of sub arctic air will glance our forecast area Wednesday night...as the supporting mid level trough will race to the east across New England. A secondary cold front will drop south across Lake Ontario Thursday evening...and this will give us a glimpse of H85 temps of -18 to -20c. The corresponding instability over the wide open lakes will then combine with some channelled vorticity and short lived upstream connections to allow for some accumulating snows southeast of both lakes. Snow accumulations will be severely limited though by a low cap...with a staunch subsidence inversion dropping from 5 and 8kft over Lakes Erie and Ontario respectively. While there will be an abundance of moisture in the snow dendritic growth zone under the entire layer beneath the inversion...snow accumulations will be severely limited though by a low cap. A staunch subsidence inversion will drop from 5kft over Lake Erie with only a slightly more favorable initial convective depth of 8kft over Lake Ontario. The low sheared 300 flow will be primed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay...but these connections will be torn apart after 06z as a broad ridge over the Upper Great Lakes will advance east and quickly establish a warm advective pattern. Nighttime snow accums will only be in the vcnty of an inch or two between Rochester and Syracuse...with lesser amounts over the Western Southern Tier. Otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This looks a bit rambunctious. I had 0.3" of snow last night and that's being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Not much in the way of sustained lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much in the way of sustained lake effect. looks sustained to me for at least 8hrs over KFZY and me but I'd never take, especially this horrific model (IMO) verbatim anyway, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I despise the RGEM cause its consistently wrong, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Rgem is the best lake effect model we have and it's not even close lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Funny cause it was the only model to predict you getting snow from that meso.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Or last year when the models were nailing me and Matt on multiple occasions for it to end up near Watertown.. Rgem nailed everyone of them.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 And to be honest, KBUF never seems enthused about any weather event, thus far, since I've been reading anyway except when Niziol was there, cause he made it more interesting! Just look at the stark differences between KBUF and KBGM, lol, its ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 This was the rgem for last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Well, this doesnt mean it won't ever snow again. There's always Feb & March... When was that from? The EPS after the 15th or so show the western ridge shifting into the west and a cold dump in the east...must be transient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Even a broken clock is wrong twice a day, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Here was the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Here was the 3k The absolute worst, lol, but I do gotta say the HRRR is also on pt with LE, so I guess they all have their moments of victory, but their few and far between, lol!, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 This is the worst lake effect year that I can remember in awhile. Need some arctic air to make its way down here at least once this year. How many events are we at? 2-3? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yeah tell me about it lol Couple decent totals from yesterday 1 NW Constableville 11.0 400 AM 1/07 CoCoRaHS Redfield 8N 9.4 700 AM 1/07 Co-Op Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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