CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I got over an inch of snow at my house last night. More than I was expecting! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1.4 inches here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 WWA issued.. Kbgm map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Models have really started to trend more closely together in the extended with very amplified ridging popping up to the east and deep southwesterly flow taking shape over the area from the end of the week right into the weekend. This will mean rapidly warming conditions from Thursday into Friday. While this occurs, moisture will be on the increase quite effectively as well. As a result, the cold air in the CWA should evacuate with haste and any snow/wintry mix at the onset of precipitation Thursday night should transition to all rain by Friday. Very high chances of rain continue from Friday into the weekend as the upper pattern really fails to evolve over the area. With a frontal boundary semi-resident to our west, we will remain on the warm side of the boundary with southwest flow in place. A couple of waves down the front will yield a couple of chances of moderate rainfall into the weekend before guidances becomes a bit less clustered by the end of that weekend. After that juncture, some cold air may start to filter back in, but that eventuality is far from set in stone at this time. That whole paragraph makes me wanna puke and i'd like to puke on the Met who wrote this drivel as he sounds happy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Models have really started to trend more closely together in the extended with very amplified ridging popping up to the east and deep southwesterly flow taking shape over the area from the end of the week right into the weekend. This will mean rapidly warming conditions from Thursday into Friday. While this occurs, moisture will be on the increase quite effectively as well. As a result, the cold air in the CWA should evacuate with haste and any snow/wintry mix at the onset of precipitation Thursday night should transition to all rain by Friday. Very high chances of rain continue from Friday into the weekend as the upper pattern really fails to evolve over the area. With a frontal boundary semi-resident to our west, we will remain on the warm side of the boundary with southwest flow in place. A couple of waves down the front will yield a couple of chances of moderate rainfall into the weekend before guidances becomes a bit less clustered by the end of that weekend. After that juncture, some cold air may start to filter back in, but that eventuality is far from set in stone at this time. That whole paragraph makes me wanna puke and i'd like to puke on the Met who wrote this drivel as he sounds happy! You apparently didn't read BGM's discussion. It was just as delightful. After the p-type issues/challenges are resolved and all the precipitation is in the form of rain, the next area of concern will be the potential for locally heavy rain and runoff leading to potential flooding issues. This time frame is still very far out, but there are some indications that our forecast area could see a prolonged period of relatively deep moisture advecting in with steady rain streaming north into the region. Several inches of rain are possible Saturday before the cold air appears to arrives Sunday along with a drier air mass and a change back to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Ensembles are crap for the entire run. All two plus weeks. Ugly. Man, I can’t even remember a stretch this sh.tyy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Their talking about a week away likes its tomorrow, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 A week away and their 100% confident its gonna rain, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: A week away and their 100% confident its gonna rain, lol! This year, it's a higher likelihood than several inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Meanwhile they can't resolve a snow event thats 24hrs out! Why do we even have Mets anymore? Why are they needed for? Models do the forecasting and a broadcast major learns to read a green screen and she or hes the one who gives the public the forecast, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Its a absolute JOKE thats why starting pay is 22,000, lol, I can make more per yr panhandling, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 RLMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Rain is a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 For tonight a mid level shortwave will aid in pushing a surface trough across our region. Aloft a 170 knot W-E jet will be strengthening over the Ohio Valley, with our region becoming under the favorable lift of the left exit region of this jet. These features together with moisture deepening with the passing trough aloft, will develop a broad area of light snow. Timing this snow...the onset of heavier synoptic snow will be around 7 pm tonight across far WNY, and between 1 am and 4 am east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures aloft tonight will drop to around -5 to -6C, not quite cold enough for true lake effect, but there will likely be some lake moisture enhancing snow totals to the east of the Lakes. Within a 6 to 9 hour period of snow...several inches of snow will fall...with highest totals just to the east of the Lakes. By later tonight temperatures aloft will cool a few degrees such that the synoptic snows will contract back towards the favored lake effect snow belts east of both Lakes. A glancing shot of colder air will likely add a few more inches of lake effect snow through the day east of Lake Erie, while slightly longer duration of cold westerly winds that will parallel the lake, along with slightly better lake effect parameters will likely bring several more inches of snow on the Tug Hill region...such that a winter weather advisory will be issued. This advisory will start late tonight to capture the initial synoptic snows...and continue through the day Monday and into Monday evening where the better snows under a lake effect snow band will fall. Here, over a 24 hour period 5 to as much as 9 inches of snow may accumulate. Convergence maximizes late tomorrow morning east of Lake Ontario and this is when snowfall rates could reach 1"/hr. As the lake inversion heights fall tomorrow afternoon (Lake Erie) and tomorrow evening (Lake Ontario) and winds shift slightly to a west-northwest direction, the lake effect snow east of both lakes will taper off SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... This will be basically the coldest portion of the forecast as the main lobe of modified Arctic air wanders across the Lower Great Lakes region centered around Wednesday. Before its arrival via a moisture-starved cold front Tuesday night, a system looks to have a near miss to our southeast on Tuesday, spreading precipitation generally along the Middle Atlantic coast. We are mostly sandwiched between this system and the incoming cold front from our northwest. This comes screaming through on Tuesday night with some snow shower activity. Fairly robust cold advection in its wake and quickly steepening low-level lapse rates that get the moist layer up into the dendritic growth layer fairly easily will allow for lake effect snows to quickly ramp up in WNW flow. This will favor the Chautauqua/Cattaraugus and Oswego County areas for the main impacts, however lesser snows will be likely across most of the south shore of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Steady fall of snow through the evening here. Everything is fully covered, actually looks quite wintry out for the first time in a while. Decent radar returns about to push through as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Steady fall of snow through the evening here. Everything is fully covered, actually looks quite wintry out for the first time in a while. Decent radar returns about to push through as well. Yeah I just measured 2" and looks like a nice band about to move through. Went for a nice walk with the dog in it, felt great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Maybe a little bit of lake enhancement there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Maybe a little bit of lake enhancement there? Could be...made for a nice walk with fat flakes pouring down. Probably going to hit 3” out of this. We’ll take it and run in this pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Could be...made for a nice walk with fat flakes pouring down. Probably going to hit 3” out of this. We’ll take it and run in this pattern. Currently at 30 degrees and moderate snow in Williamsville 2.1" so far...3 inches outside chance at 4...could be the highest we see for a couple weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Uh.... 1-2" of freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Big time ice and sleet storm on the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 That run would be once in lifetime type stuff. Would paralyze entire states. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Pattern is right for ice. But who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That run would be once in lifetime type stuff. Would paralyze entire states. Verbatim, RIP Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Wasn't euro showing a big storm few days ago in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Lock it in? Most of this is freezing rain/sleet, tidbits is so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Cmc is actually very close to gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Mmhmm almost makes me wanna see euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro is a mixed mess .. From rain-snow, ice and sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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