wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 That's probably what the European did last night with almost the exact same track, it abandoned that idea early today, obviously a timing issue..We need that system to head NE to at least some back end snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Welcome back Lee. I thought I recognized that handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I was hoping to see something in the works for Sunday that would get me stuck here. The micro climate here (st Lucia)is just as interesting as home, you can see the effects elevation has on rainfall in the vegetation clearly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I was hoping to see something in the works for Sunday that would get me stuck here. The micro climate here (st Lucia)is just as interesting as home, you can see the effects elevation has on rainfall in the vegetation clearly. The Pitons. Honeymooned there. Amazing place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, 96blizz said: The Pitons. Honeymooned there. Amazing place. That’s where we eloped to as well! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Gefs don't even know what to do lol Obviously this is all for a little snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Sooooo...Syracuse, Albany, or Boston. Obviously I DON'T want the first option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 One can only hope this surprises everyone in a good way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, vortmax said: One can only hope this surprises everyone in a good way. It's really tough when there just isn't any cold air available. If the secondary can get its act together and drag down some colder air, that may be our best hope. We could end up getting a Seattle-like snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 In reality these surface temps are easily cold enough to snow..Max temps are right at the start, 34-35 degrees.. I grew up in NJ where every snowstorm is 33°-34° lol The mid lvls are more borderline.. Unlike the surface it can't snow above 0c lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 No chance of snow with 850 mb above 0c.. U get the mid lvls cold and it snows at 33°-34° and sticks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Colder in the mountains of NC than anywhere in Upstate NY, VT, and NH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: No chance of snow with 850 mb above 0c.. U get the mid lvls cold and it snows at 33°-34° and sticks.. Graupel storm warning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Its slight but a little trend colder on the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: What time period is this for? I'm hearing the Euro weeklies now see cold by about February 10? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Its slight but a little trend colder on the NAM.. Yup... That’s all I needed to see... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: What time period is this for? I'm hearing the Euro weeklies now see cold by about February 10? Interesting article on the Severe Weather Europe page on the weakening of the polar vortex and it’s implication in a change in tropospheric weather patterns as we go into February. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-february-double-warming-fa/?fbclid=IwAR3ijCqVo6tVEThaNOm3t5NQd5zyB_ypKdm1FsIv4mRN8nTld-SDtKzZX8s 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 NAM is a good hit. I’m in Jackson Hole. The flight and 4 hour drive screwed my back up- just my luck, lol. Hitting it with icy hot and ibuprofen. Stretching too. Hopefully be skiing tomorrow. Any suggestions? Tons of snow in the Tetons. Base of 36”+. Beautiful! Hope to get some fresh stuff but I’ll be skiing the curdory to save my back either way.. Supposed to ski 3 days with a massage after day 2- should help. Even if I can’t ski much I’ll enjoy the views, the food and the company. And of course the SNOW! #badtimingback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 850’s are screwy like a couple others already stated. NAM must be seeing sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: What time period is this for? I'm hearing the Euro weeklies now see cold by about February 10? Feb 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 76656 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Interesting article on the Severe Weather Europe page on the weakening of the polar vortex and it’s implication in a change in tropospheric weather patterns as we go into February. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-february-double-warming-fa/?fbclid=IwAR3ijCqVo6tVEThaNOm3t5NQd5zyB_ypKdm1FsIv4mRN8nTld-SDtKzZX8s Might be too late in the season though. Last year we saw one in late Dec/Early Jan that brought the arctic air in late jan/early feb. I think Feb 4-7th is the pattern change. If not around that time period, all is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Could be ok on the backside of the system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Eventually as the low along the coast becomes the primary low by late Saturday night, temps aloft settle more toward -6c and soundings indicate blyr cools sufficiently to turn most mixed precip over to snow across all the forecast area. With deeper moisture to H7-H6 in the area (as evidenced by slower trend to depart the upper low) and delta t/s to 8-9c off both Great Lakes, think a period of lake enhancement develops Sat. night and continues into good part of Sunday. Blyr wind direction from the nw will favor higher terrain over western Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario for the most snow as with marginal sfc temps this should turn into a upslope terrain enhancement event. However, with the cyclonic side of the upper low in the vcnty and cooling temps, even the lower elevation locations will probably see some snow accumulation late Saturday night into midday Sunday before temps warming into the mid 30s limit additional accums into Sunday afternoon. One of the bigger changes to the forecast was to increase pops Sunday and Sunday night, most notable over the higher terrain areas favored by nw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Temps are so marginal we can't even get 10-1 with enhancement lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 43 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro? 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Wow that is much snowier than literally every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Ukmet has wrap around into Tuesday.. Obviously this is not all snow or rain.. It's funny, for a 9k model, euro sure has trouble showing wrap around/enhancement..But yet 12k-17k models have no issues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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