DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hello guys and girls, Im a lurker on this thread but could use some help as I have to head to UB ( Amherst ) from Rockland County with my son to take him back to school and I have been trying to figure out when to leave and return home. I realize we still have a few days to go and as of right now the weather is not written in stone. My plan was to drive him and a friend back to school and for me to get a room over night and return home after resting but it appears to me that I might be screwed. Looks to me that snow showers and frozen precipitation could start as soon as Friday night and that this only gets worse as we get into Saturday---> Am I mistaken ,do you think I can get this ride in if we head to Buffalo on Friday morning and I head back to Rockland either late Friday nite or VERY EARLY Saturday morning or will I be looking for trouble. I have driven thru Windsor and other places during freezing rain and that is NOT ANY FUN ,I am looking at a 5 hour drive --> thanks in advance , thoughts ? Dave mostly covered this, but I don't really see any issue with travel this weekend especially because 90 percent of your driving will be on major highways like the I90 which are very well maintained. Surface temps will likely be 32 or above so roads should be mostly wet with little if any snow cover. Freezing rain isn't a concern at all. You should be good to go, just be prepared for some nuisance snow and lowered visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yup, same here dude.. I've had like 5 hours of heavy lake effect all year lol Good thing is we are only 3 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting.. My heaviest lake effect this year was last Sunday morning when we had about 2 hours of lake effect that produced about 3 inches of snow as that band moved south You just know that this pattern is going to flip in late February and give us a crappy spring. We’ve had some of our biggest snowstorms in mid March lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 So, basically 4 more months of March weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 I prefer seasons in seasons. By late March average highs are in the upper 40s. These warm Dec/Jans are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: So, basically 4 more months of March weather? I’ve mowed my lawn just before Memorial Day with grauple falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’ve mowed my lawn just before Memorial Day with grauple falling. Maybe this year you can mow your lawn before Valentine's Day with graupel falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Icon is pretty much all rain except this one frame lol Even the wrap around is a mix haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 That was me yesterday before the new models came in.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 That doesn't surprise me. It's always hot-headed. Balance it out with some of the cold-hearted models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 If wolf is tossing we're all tossing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Normal winter I would pitch a tent with this image.. Not this year.. Next frame is all rain, South shore to Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Brutal.. Pretty much a rain storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 lol....................................I thought I might have a snowpack still through the weekend. Doubting that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Gfs does redeem itself some on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This system is a slow mover, icon had plenty of wrap around as well..Might be our best shot at some accumulation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Must be some warm layers somewhere besides the surface which is 33-34.. Usually that would still be snow as long as the mid lvls are supportive.. Albeit white rain, unless the precip is heavy enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Boundary layer temperatures in the mid 30s into Saturday night is what will keep us rain. Temperatures aloft are below freezing which leads me to believe elevations above 1000-1500 ft. will flip to snow fairly early Saturday evening and end up with 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 As u get closer to the surface temps warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Cold air is parked over Alaska. As it has been all year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Definitely elevations dependant..But I can also see it being precip dependant lol This is pretty much the warmest frame, 33-34 with heavy precip would probably be snow, problem is the gfs is all disorganized at this time.. We'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 U can see it on the NAM as rain starts to become a period of heavy snow.. Surface is 33.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 NWS has us flipping sat evening.. Saturday Snow showers likely before noon, then rain and snow showers. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Snow showers. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cold air is parked over Alaska. As it has been all year. A cold Alaskan winter was bound to happen again after the 2011-12 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Here is the Canadian at 10-1 and still going.. After factoring in ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I've turned my attention to my favorite side, the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Here is the Canadian at 10-1 and still going.. After factoring in ratios That crazy Canadian! Trying to give BUF a lake effect snow response Monday AM. Toss! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Yeah Canadian has like 2days of light wrap around lol Some 12+ into the tug.. 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Dave mostly covered this, but I don't really see any issue with travel this weekend especially because 90 percent of your driving will be on major highways like the I90 which are very well maintained. Surface temps will likely be 32 or above so roads should be mostly wet with little if any snow cover. Freezing rain isn't a concern at all. You should be good to go, just be prepared for some nuisance snow and lowered visibility. Delta thanks, FYI a month and a half ago I drove the same exact route and I was on 17 ( in my truck ) the temp was varying between 30 and 34 degrees the entire trip but near Windsor ( higher elevation South of Binghamton ) and it was a nightmare ,,it was easily the worst experience I ever had while driving in any weather conditions as the highway was NOT maintained and there were cars and accidents all over the road and they only got 3 or 4 inches of snow max but rumor has it there was freezing rain associated with that one Thanks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Wow, so all the models have turned north for this weekend. Of course the great track couldn't hold. Next... Year. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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