wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Yes pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Track means everything, obviously lol Ukmet is even farther west with the heaviest being near kbuf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Track means everything, obviously lol Ukmet is even farther west with the heaviest being near kbuf.. Is that because the primary holds on longer on the Ukmet? If so then it will be a warmer solution and most of that precipitation will be liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Is that because the primary holds on longer on the Ukmet? If so then it will be a warmer solution and most of that precipitation will be liquid. Ukie is mostly snow for us. Snow maps look similar to Euro but a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Yeah it's hard to tell.. I've see this map floating around and it does look like a lot of liquid.. Unfortunately don't have north of this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Practically BM for parts of CNY.. It's funny they talk about the BM track all the time over on the NE forum. My benchmark here is the center of LI. Track from Jersey coast ---> center of LI is almost a guaranteed winner here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, cny rider said: It's funny they talk about the BM track all the time over on the NE forum. My benchmark here is the center of LI. Track from Jersey coast ---> center of LI is almost a guaranteed winner here. There are a lot of Mets over there and they offer tidbits for us out west so I poke around there quite a bit. And anytime one of the civilian posters complain about rain and dry slots, that means we are good upstate. Our best storms are usually grim for them. I will also say my camp is located in the Adirondacks which is kind of like a Bermuda triangle of the weather boards. Often time that latitude corresponds a lot with what the northern NE crew are concerned with and not necessarily what is on the minds of this board out in western NY. I also live closer to the NYC so that forum is interesting for my backyard. I lurk the Sh*t out the forums during storm threats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I just snuck a peak at the NE board and someone made the comment that this will be good for the hinterlands. Hopefully we are the hinterlands! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Hinterland are the berks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I kept seeing stories about a blizzard in Newfoundland this past weekend so I did some digging. Check out this bad boy of a system!! The part of the video link pertaining to the snow starts around the 33 second mark. Quite jealous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Good roundup of what's going on there. Surprisingly, no hysteria about climate change, extreme weather, end of the world, etc. US media work that angle on every run of the mill system they cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Some nice dendrites falling here.. First time I've ever seen spectrum news use the gfs lol They showed it's futurcast, no mention of the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Moving on into the longer term portion of the forecast...low pressure over the Ohio Valley Friday evening will lift northeastward to about Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday...while gradually weakening as its energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward off the New England coastline Sunday and Sunday night...while lingering deep cyclonic flow across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building eastward from the Upper Great Lakes. In terms of PoPs...increasing synoptic forcing and moisture attendant to the initial primary low and its parent upper level low will spread increasing precipitation chances from southwest to northeast Friday night and Saturday. In the official forecast...have reflected this by spreading likely to categorical PoPs across far western New York Friday night...then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. The deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal system should then maintain at least a general likelihood of pcpn areawide Saturday night and Sunday...with the precip then quickly tapering off Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped away...and as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward into our region. With regard to ptype...the precipitation may initially begin as some light rain Friday night...with steady cooling of the atmospheric column then driving a transition over to mainly wet snow as the night progresses. During this transition period...a brief wintry mix cannot be ruled out dependent upon how quickly the boundary layer and a modest warm layer aloft cool relative to each other...however confidence in this remains too low for inclusion in the forecast given both the time frame and continued model differences in how thermal profiles will evolve. After that time...the precipitation should tend to be more in the way of wet snow through the remainder of the event...though marginal thermal profiles may still be supportive of some rain mixing back in again across the lower elevations during the day Saturday and again on Sunday. While this system will be nowhere near as strong as the one that passed through our region this past weekend...it could still bring a notable water-laden snowfall to portions of our region from later Friday night through Sunday...with this potential heavily dependent on the eventual track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles across our region...all of which remains uncertain this far out in advance. At this point...it appears the best potential for such a snowfall will lie across our higher terrain...which should run a bit colder overall throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Kind of a lame LT disc, but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 KBGM AFD snip this afternoon: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main concern this time period is the evolution of the next storm system and its impacts on our forecast area. Models all show a closed upper level low moving into Indiana and Ohio Friday night and then tracking across southern PA/West Virginia and Virginia/Maryland/Delaware and NJ Saturday and then to off the New England coast by Sunday. This upper level low brings a low-level cyclone up to Ohio where is occludes and goes barotropic. The baroclinic zone shifts to the coast on Saturday and thisupper level low as it moves east will eventually spin up another low-level cyclone with baroclinic development. Models continue to have track that is south and east of northeast PA andcentral NY meaning a higher chance for mainly snow. We stillcould see some boundary layer warmth Saturday during the day which could lead to mixed rain and snow especially in our valleys. By Saturday night precipitation should be all snow. We will continue with mainly chance POPs Friday night, Likely Saturday and chance to likely POPs for snow showers Sunday and flurries and scattered snow showers into Monday begin this system. The main question is how much QPF will our forecast area get. It is way too early to begin snow amounts. There is a lot of bust potential with this storm even if its track remains similar. The issue is how quickly will the coastal low develop. If it is delayed our area will just get mainly light to moderate snow with the heaviest snow east of our area. Basically we would have an upper level low with limited moisture and a minimum between the Ohio Valley low and the coastal low. The 12z GFS scenario develops the coastal low more rapidly and hence would be a decent snowstorm for our area especially Saturday night. But in these transfer lows we could easily miss out if the coastal low doesn`t take off in time. So for now we will continue to mention the possibility of a winter storm this weekend in our Hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday. us weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Seems like all of our snow events are starting to become elevation dependent, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 SourceLooks like there are still many many different scenarios that could play out since we're still 4 days away, but it doesn't look bad, lots of possibilities!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS coming in north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 HR 108 solid hit for many CCB. Nice trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Great GFS run!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wow PLattsburgh gets crushed this run. Solid 10-15 inches that run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I know I post random shit lmao 5 extra days this year? Looks like it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Here was the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Icon wasn't to dissimilar to the gfs wrt track, just a touch quicker and a bit warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Straight double barrel low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I know I post random shit lmao 5 extra days this year? Looks like it.. I was at Oktoberfest in Munich last fall. It's the NY State Fair on steroids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Icon is always warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 You can the difference in location wrt to the defo band, obviously this has huge impacts.. Outside of this area could be some white rain with marginal temps and lighter precip rates.. It's usually hard for everyone to win lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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