wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Alot of those members are nice hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: gimme anything close to a coastal hugger this time of year and I will roll those dice every single time!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 A little bit of unexpected snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, cny rider said: Nice! Did you do any skiing? Nordic? Alpine? Oh yeah, Nordic. At Lake Placid Club, nice trails with views of high peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Look at the return flow around this HP across the inter-mountain West! Alberta province North of Montana is +10C, lol, that's just nuts for this time of yr! System for the weekend is looking more and more interesting, noice! Perhaps this is the start of a more prolonged pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Aleutian Lows make me and brings& 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Somethings forming on a NW flow but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Gfs coming in North.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Yeah it's a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Late transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Let's see ensembles. Gfs has a tendency to loose things in mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Late transfer.. Gonna see a lot of wobbles this week. H500 deepens a little later on 0Z GFS. That's the main difference from last couple of runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Now gfs is full of turd cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Cmc looks like a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Euro was a bit wierd and disorganized at times but still got the job done verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Quiet weather will continue for most of Friday as an area of high pressure over the Northeast and Eastern Canada slowly moves east. An approaching area of low pressure from the Tennessee Valley will start to increase POPs for Friday evening, with chance POPs across WNY. The area of low pressure will continue to track northeast toward the area and center over the western end of Lake Erie by Saturday morning. The low will slowly track east before a secondary and stronger area of low pressure develops Saturday evening off the coast of NY/NJ. The coastal low will continue to strengthen as it tracks northeast to the Gulf of Maine by Sunday night. Likely POPs will be in place from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. A heavy water laden snow looks likely now, but temperatures will need to be monitored as any bump up in the temperatures will mean more rain likely. Some rain will mix in for Saturday afternoon across the lower elevations, but pure rain areas as of right now looks to be limited as model guidance continues to come in a bit cooler. Wrap around moisture will keep precipitation going through Sunday night before tapering off on Monday to showery coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Certainly not the prettiest storm I've ever seen lol Improvements on the gfs for at least this one run.. Surface LOW is a bit to east for our liking.. Kuchera 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wow that changed alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Dropped 27° since midnight, low of -5.6° as of now.. 4th night out of the the last 7 below zero.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow that changed alot Yep only 3 solid hits for BUF. It is really early though so changes are expected but definitely not encouraging for WNY. I do feel good having the Euro on our side for now even though it hasn’t been the most consistent as of late. If we lose the Euro then I’d be more nervous about getting anything of significance, but as of now I’m okay with how the models look this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 It's Only one model and one run lol Each model has it's own depiction.. Ratios are going to be a killer once again. Here was the Canadian.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Dropped 27° since midnight, low of -5.6° as of now.. 4th night out of the the last 7 below zero.. Temps still dropping.. Nearing a 30° drop the last 8 hrs with no mechanism besides a light northerly breeze lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Ryan maue The Canadian weather modeling agency is flipping switch on a new Supercomputer with 2.5x increase in performance. Huge. Over past 3 month, the Canadian model has moved ahead of the U.S. NOAA global weather model in skill metrics. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 AFTER MONTHS OF PREPARATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA, IN COLLABORATION WITH SHARED SERVICES CANADA, WILL BE SWITCHING TO A NEW HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING INFRASTRUCTURE ON TUESDAY, JANUARY 21, 2020, BEGINNING WITH THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS. AS PART OF A PLANNED 30-MONTH UPGRADE CYCLE, THE EXISTING IBM-CRAY SOLUTION, CONSISTING OF DUAL CRAY XC-40 SUPERCOMPUTERS AND CS-400 PRE- AND POST-PROCESSING CLUSTERS, WILL BE REPLACED BY TWO PAIRS OF XC-50 SUPERCOMPUTERS AND CS-500 CLUSTERS PROVIDING A 2.5X INCREASE IN PERFORMANCE OVER THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE TAPE ARCHIVAL SYSTEM, ALONG WITH HIGH-PERFORMANCE NETWORK AND STORAGE COMPONENTS, WILL ALL BE REPLACED WITH EXPANDED CAPACITY AND PERFORMANCE COMMENSURATE WITH THE UPGRADED COMPUTE SOLUTION. THIS UPGRADE REAFFIRMS OUR STRONG FOUNDATION OF HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SERIES OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS FROM RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS OPERATIONS. SUCH UPGRADES ARE THUS ESSENTIAL IN ORDER TO PROVIDE CONTINUALLY IMPROVED WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SERVICES TO CANADIANS, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER USERS AND PARTNERS. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR ISSUES, USERS NOTICING ANY MISSING PRODUCTS FOLLOWING THE SWITCHOVER SHOULD NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT US TO ENSURE THE PROPER DISSEMINATION OF PRODUCTS AND UNINTERRUPTED DELIVERY OF SERVICES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 So the next run is the launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Eps Control and mean Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Gonna need about an inch liquid to get warning criteria (7"-8"), more likely scenario is a moderate 3"-6" wet snow event, as it currently stands . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS keeps an extremely active storm track. Albeit with very little cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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