wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Tea kettle usually has no wind so the snow tends to be confined close to the lake shore.. This happens when a lake-effect snow band sets up over the middle of the lake, but winds are insufficient to blow it inland (the lake "boils over" with snow) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I remember picking up 6" on a NNW/N wind when I lived in Fulton, looked just like this.. Comes off "Mexico Bay", the same way I can pick up a few inches on a NW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I absolutely love this flow for absolute fluff and thats what it looks like outside, simply gorgeous! This flow can be very sneaky too with surprises all the time, thats why I love it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I've gotten 2" easy since this flow began! No wind at all as it just falls straight down and fat dendrites as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Well boys and girls since this winter has been nothing sort of a bust for snowmobiling in NY, in a few short hours we are heading all the way up...To Fort Kent, ME to chase the snow. When I find it I will try my best to bring the cold and snow back with us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I absolutely love this flow for absolute fluff and thats what it looks like outside, simply gorgeous! This flow can be very sneaky too with surprises all the time, thats why I love it! It is very pretty. I must be on the edges, as it's not coming down heavy...but nice fluffy flakes gently falling. I'll have to go for a Matt walk soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Well boys and girls since this winter has been nothing sort of a bust for snowmobiling in NY, in a few short hours we are heading all the way up...To Fort Kent, ME to chase the snow. When I find it I will try my best to bring the cold and snow back with us! There's probably some great snowmobiling in the Tug the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 South shore lighting up on that NNW flow. Someone’s gonna get several inches of 30:1 stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Snow definitely picking up here again. In reality, it's been a pretty good run the past several days. Thursday: 4 inches Saturday: 5 inches Sunday: 5 inches If we can manage a couple more inches overnight we will have over a foot of snow on the ground. Major feat for this winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Yeah looks like the entire south shore is exploding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Some nice improvements on the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Icon is similar to the gfs, just warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Cmc has 15 to 20 inches for that storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Gotta say, hope everyone liked this last storm cuz GFS has a parade of similar looking outcomes through the whole 0Z run. At least 3 of them. Broken record of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 6 hours ago, Syrmax said: Gotta say, hope everyone liked this last storm cuz GFS has a parade of similar looking outcomes through the whole 0Z run. At least 3 of them. Broken record of a run. Don’t look now but the 06z Goofus looks a lot more like the 00z Canadian. GFS has about 6-10” for most of us, while the Canadian is more like 8-16”, not that a trust either at this time range but at least it’s a step in the right direction and something to watch within about a weeks timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Oh forgot to mention with low cloud cover and fresh snow cover. Temp is down to 3 degrees here. Lowest temp of the season for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Yeah, It was all about if we clear out or not lol We finally did after midnight, temp down to -3.8.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Temp is still dropping.. I've noticed that majority of my minimums come between 730am-830am, not overnight like you would think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 After a period of quiet weather, precipitation chances will increase Friday and on into the weekend, as a system passes just south of the area and a northern stream trough shifts into the region. With only a limited amount of cold air tapped from Canada, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain/snow during this period as temperatures oscillate through the 30s during the diurnal cycle. Based on model consensus in the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity. The ECMWF remains alone in a track farther to the south which would mean a bit more colder air would sneak in allowing for a better chance of precipitation falling as all wet snow at times. However, this could all change given the temperature and track uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I have noticed over the last 2 or 3 LR AFD that the NWS has not mentioned the Canadian lol Only the gfs and European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Nice weekend of snow. Roc got about 8 inches. Next weekend looks interesting. Roc up to about 60 inches for the season. About a foot above normal for date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nice weekend of snow. Roc got about 8 inches. Next weekend looks interesting. Roc up to about 60 inches for the season. About a foot above normal for date. It sure doesn’t feel like an above normal season. Does it? I have 4”-5” solid pack right now. So 8” is fair. I guess. I was wrong about this weekend. It was impressive for lack of good track. Almost all of it came with the front thump. I thought we’d get what city of BUF got, taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Syracuse has never had more snow than Fulton in the 27 years of measuring.. Could this be the year? Rochester may beat them both.. Heck Kroc could beat me as I only have 62"..lol It's been a rough year for Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The question is just like the steroids era, do we put an * next to it? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Temp is still dropping.. I've noticed that majority of my minimums come between 730am-830am, not overnight like you would think.. I was initially surprised by that also but I've noticed the daily mins occur right around sunrise or even a touch later. Like around sunrise +/- and hour. Esp with calm conditions, good radiational cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Even Carol was crying yesterday. She’s at 100. I think the Roc stats are modestly inflated. Maybe 10%. It all started a few years ago when the airport was under measuring every snowfall. All the local mets went crazy and attacked them, verbally. And very publicly. Ever since then, over measurements. Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I remember that. It was very bad too. Everybody would get 10 to 12 inches and they would report 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 On to the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 KSYR is at 45.5" total for the season, which is -17 8". Basically we're missing 2 or 3 decent storms. About what you would expect for a month long period from mid Dec to mid Jan where we received almost nothing. With a season average of about 125" it's going to be a hard pull to get to average, but not impossible. We are already close to the 2011/12 or was it (2014/15?) season total snowfall. Both winters stunk but one was particularly lame. If we get average monthly snowfall for Mar & Apr we should finish around 100". Which wouldn't be horrible, or outside of typical variability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Yeah it's not happening for me lol I checked Bennett's bridge (east Altmar) Feb stats over the last decade and half had at least 55" of snow.. Which is what I need to somewhat salvage this year...The most over a 2 month stretch (Feb,March) was about 115".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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