BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 Going to winterfest at chestnut ridge today, the hills are open for sledding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 P&C upto 4-8. I gotta say, this is a strong set up for areas in Orleans to Wayne, with NE Monroe being ground zero. South shore LES is largely unpredictable but this as good a set up as I’ve seen this winter. Now let’s see if we can’t get the meso features to line up. Call: Pebfield Walworth- 7” Irondequoit- 5” Airport- 4” SYR- 5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Of course this could just as easily turn into nothing, as depicted on most modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Lock this baby in on the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Models did pretty well. Yeah looks about right here.. Was a decent bust on the NWS side of things.. Considering at one point they had 18"-24" just a few miles east of here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lock this baby in on the GGEM. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Canadian is the first model to show the dual low but predicting a cut off low this far in advance is a tall order lol Last night it was south of us for example.. 0z euro was similar in track but warmer, mixed bag .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Here was the 12z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 If that happens, Freak will run on the 31 Bridge over 481 in the nude. He needs some incentive to capture his dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Gfs still a little to north for us but not by much.. Primary gets to the NY/PA border, transfers off the coast of jersey..Rain to snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Its been straight ripping for about an hour...about 1 1/2" in that time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Euro transferring very far south..Not sure this makes it up here this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lock this baby in on the GGEM. That's what I'm talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: If that happens, Freak will run on the 31 Bridge over 481 in the nude. He needs some incentive to capture his dream. YouTube account upload feature warmed up and waiting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro transferring very far south..Not sure this makes it up here this run.. HP just won't budge when we need it to lol This one will be for the coast verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 PnC here looks a bit much. 5" today and 2" tonight...we had 3" earlier but not seeing that doubling by 7 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Going with pattern recognition, what the GFS shows is probably the most realistic outcome. A weak system with minimal cold and moisture to work with sliding across. The GGEM is the second most possible option (minus the ridiculous snowfall output) as I can see a possible development like that taking place. There have been attempts. The Euro is the least possible option, in my opinion. We have had no suppressed systems this year and there are no major changes in the pattern to lead me to believe that would happen. The SE ridge has been stubbbbbbbbborn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 One of the slower systems u will ever see lol That HP just sits their and weakens from 1040mb+.. Good track for the coast and still rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: One of the slower systems u will ever see lol That HP just sits their and weakens from 1040mb+.. Good track for the coast and still rain lol Decent track. Too bad Euro's qpf covers 10 acres of land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 This storm has to create its own cold.. Even with strong HP just to the NE temps aren't that cold.. Which is funny because we just had a strong HP to the NE and it was quite a bit colder.. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Is LE gonna fire up at all?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Well this could be a decent one for who's ever under it..Slow meandering cutoff low giving way to secondary development that has to crawl because of HP to the north..Euro actually heads SE with the system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Is LE gonna fire up at all?? We have been getting lake effect over here all day. Much lighter than the band that went through this morning though. We've had between 3 and 4 new inches here today. Erie seems to provide much more of the goods than Ontario, at least the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Things should fire up more later this afternoon/early evening and last till about 1am according to the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 We may have another CF move through this afternoon, at least that's what it looks like.. Giving everyone a burst of snow.. Each model has their own take, guess we are just gonna have to wait and see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I’d expect Ontario to fire up after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 T-1" over the next 10 days on the European lol Sat system is all we got for quite a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 We need a Feb 2007 to turn this around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Wake me up when we started seeing this again.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We have been getting lake effect over here all day. Much lighter than the band that went through this morning though. We've had between 3 and 4 new inches here today. Erie seems to provide much more of the goods than Ontario, at least the past two winters. Its picking up now. Maybe we can get it to last for a few hours while football is on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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