96blizz Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 this is a fun storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 33.8 degs and rising. Have a mixture of wet snow/sleet. I’ll be interested to see if that bright mix makes it into Rochester. We’ve been holding steady with snow far longer than I thought. Still cold at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 34.7 and changing to just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 As of 18z...a broad area of low pressure was centered over Lake Michigan. While the main supporting shortwave can be seen in WV imagery over Minnesota...the driving feature for this evolving system is a robust shortwave that is depicted over the Lower Ohio Valley. As this bundle of energy progresses up the Ohio Valley during the remainder of the afternoon...it will promote further intensification of the surface low that will be moving across Lower Michigan. A divergent upper level flow ahead of the consolidating sfc low will provide lift for widespread accumulating snow this afternoon...that should largely be in the form of snow across the region. Some sleet and patches of freezing rain will mix in with the snow over the far western counties during the remainder of the afternoon...particularly near Lake Erie. As we work our way through the rest of the afternoon...a strengthening H25 jet (150kts) will push from the Ohio Valley across the Appalachians. This will place us under the favored left front exit region for enhanced lift...while a deepening southerly flow will impinge upon the first of two warm frontal boundaries that will be advancing from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes. The resulting frontogenetic lift will increase the intensity of the pcpn... while thermal profiles will gradually `warm` below cloud level. Climatologically...a deepening storm system cutting by to our west would normally guarantee a change over from snow to at LEAST a mix...if not to just rain at some point. Interestingly...the vast majority of the guidance packages have struggled with depicting a significant warm nose as the deepening sfc low nears our region. Will have to continue to blend climatology with some of the `warmer` guidance...with the result being a transition to mixed pcpn over the western counties all the way to the south shores of Lake Ontario by this evening. The change to a mix...and for some sites (esp near Lk Erie) to a few hours of plain rain...will severely cut into snowfall amounts into early tonight...which will generally range from 2 to as much as 4 inches over most areas. Pcpn east of Lake Ontario is expected to remain as all snow though this event. The primary sfc low will reach its peak intensity (lowest sfc pres) this evening...then as it becomes `captured` by its supporting upper low...the newly stacked mature system will slowly start to weaken as it will move by to our north. This will effectively shut down the moderately strong warm advection that had been in place over our forecast area...as an elevated triple point will cross our forecast area. The pinching off of the shallow warm nose will allow the pcpn to start change back over to all snow over the western counties. During the wee...pre dawn hours of Sunday morning...the cold air on the backside of the evolving complex storm system will deepen to the point where the lake snow machines will fire up on Lake Erie. The 250-260 flow will initially direct 2 to 4 inches moderately heavy lake snow across the southern half of Erie county...possibly starting over the Buffalo `Southtowns`. As we work past daybreak Sunday...the steering flow will veer to 270 and the concentrated lake snows will push south across the Southern Tier. Meanwhile...a cap that had been in the vcnty of 6k ft will rise to nearly 10k ft. The deeper convection and subsequent deeper dendritic growth zone (DGZ) will encourage more efficient snow making with snowfall rates of 1 to as much as 2 inches an hour generating daytime snowfall of 4 to 8 inches. This area has been upgraded to a Lake Effect snow WARNING. Meanwhile across the Eastern Lake Ontario region...strong frontogenetic forcing tonight will produce 4 to 7 inches of synoptic snow. This snow could be moderately heavy at times t...but as the synoptic storm system weakens during its transition to the coast... the widespread snow will lighten in intensity through the first half of Sunday. Once the new coastal storm take shape...strong cold advection during the midday and afternoon will finally initiate lake snows over that region. An initial 260 flow early in the afternoon will fairly quickly veer to more than 300 deg by nightfall. While the organizing lake snows will be push south during this timeframe...daytime accumulations could top 8 inches on the Tug Hill. Will thus maintain the winter storm warning for this area... which will cover not only the synoptic snow through tonight...but the lake snows on Sunday. Finally...it will become quite windy across the region. A fairly strong cold front will plow across the region this evening. A 60kt LLJ in the vcnty of this boundary will at least partially mix to the sfc. This powerful LLJ will weaken fairly quickly by 6z though as the main system transitions to the coast. Will have to closely monitor this aspect to the weekend storm...as there is possibility that damaging winds could once again develop for a brief period over the western counties. For now...will maintain wind gusts to 45 to 55 mph...especially west of the Genesee valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The forecast becomes more uncertain again later Friday and especially Saturday. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday. Some previous model runs of the GFS and ECMWF were more aggressive in bringing warm air into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, resulting in a rain event. The 12Z GFS/GEM, and especially the 12Z ECMWF are trending colder again for Saturday and Sunday, potentially setting the stage for accumulating wet snow across our region as the upper level low moves slowly from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday, eventually yielding to secondary coastal cyclogenesis later Sunday off the New England coast. This system is slow moving and should have a good deal of moisture associated with it, so it bears watching. For now introduced rain and snow into the forecast for next Saturday given temperature uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 Picked up 1.6" before the heavy rain started. Absolutely pouring wind driven rain right now. Finally over 40" on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 KBUF is still reporting -SN as of 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 NEW YORK ...Erie County... Buffalo Airport 3.5 450 PM 1/18 ASOS South Newstead 3.0 304 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Jefferson County... Watertown 1.6 400 PM 1/18 Public ...Livingston County... Lima 1.5 400 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Rochester 5.0 400 PM 1/18 Social Media Chili Center 3.5 300 PM 1/18 Social Media ...Niagara County... North Tonawanda 3.6 410 PM 1/18 Social Media 1 W La Salle 2.9 348 PM 1/18 Broadcast Media 1 WSW Rapids 2.5 322 PM 1/18 NWS Employee ...Oswego County... 3 SSW REDFIELD 2.0 355 PM 1/18 Public ...Wayne County... Lyons 4.2 330 PM 1/18 Social Media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Man that dry-slot filled in, in like 5 minutes, lol, that was awesome and now some super heavy returns are headed our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Rochester beat out everybody else so far...lol. It must be the upslope off of the sky scrapers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 We’ve been getting dumped on in Rochester. 4” anyway. Hvy Snow at the moment. See radar returns indicative of mix just to our west. Hope we dryslot soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Nah its that super slanted ruler they use, lol! All of a sudden KROC's the place to be, but you have to live a block from Planes taking off, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Goin to break a daily record. It's only 5 inches for the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Radar filling in nicely, flakes are much improved...Still 18.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Massive dendrites now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Interesting that areas west of BUF have snow like returns (southern Ontario). Might be a brief mix in Roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 We barely had anything here for the past hour. Dry slots seem to like to form over the Finger Lakes and move this direction. I thought maybe it had changed to sleet. Large flakes starting to come down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Little over 2” here. All rain now turning things to pure slop. Winds really picking up now too. Least it looks wintery out there for a change! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Right around 2" here since like 11am lol A lot was due to flake structure. Best accumulation should be between 7p-7a.. Actually had quite the burst of graupel earlier, I just can't escape that stuff lol NWS going with 3"-7" tonight and 4"-7" tomorrow/night, we'll see about that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Looks like the gfs was in the ballpark for Kroc and kbuf.. Obviously east of Ontario depends on this incoming band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just measured. I have it at 4.5" at 1830 hrs. Not bad considering there is more to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Going to be a close call in the morning with about a 260 Flow, obviously I need 270.. Rgem keeps me on the fringes as the band slowly sinks south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 49 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Little over 2” here. All rain now turning things to pure slop. Winds really picking up now too. Least it looks wintery out there for a change! . I’m like couple miles north east of you and we had almost 4 inches before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just went outside. On our way to 5 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Not much more behind this right now..We May go into a lull soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 33 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Just measured. I have it at 4.5" at 1830 hrs. Not bad considering there is more to come. I had 4.8 at 6:30 so we’re pretty close. Looks like a break moving in from the southwest but there’s pretty robust echoes out in western New York so we might not be finished for the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I'm not sure that stuff gets to us.. SR guidance sweeps it along with the CF.. It's seems to be shrinking in coverage.. Guess we'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I’m like couple miles north east of you and we had almost 4 inches before the change over.I’m only 2 miles from the lake shore so probably had some influence here. Good chunk of the late morning we had sleet while it sounds like you guys more north only had a brief mix. Better than nothing I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm not sure that stuff gets to us.. SR guidance sweeps it along with the CF.. It's seems to be shrinking in coverage.. Guess we'll wait and see. And just like that it collapsed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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