TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lol temps in the 20s but a rain and snow mix? Doesn't make sense haha.. Even I'm forecasted 33° overnight.. Yeah, their peculiarly-worded forecasts that get put that say things like 'Snow. Rain likely. Chance of rain showers, blah blah..." lol Straight out "Rain after midnight" with temps in the upper 20s, with a strong southerly wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: This system ain't getting North of the MI border! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The Low is waaaaaay up over Georgian Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I just think they forget the ^ symbol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Tonight's low has already been eclipsed, lol, at 11 the p&c has 7F and its currently already 3F! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The Low is waaaaaay up over Georgian Bay.When? I don't care what the models show just like yesterday's LP was a cutter but ended up going through the Southern tier, RLMAO!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I’m in lake placid for the weekend clear and cold negative 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: When? I don't care what the models show just like yesterday's LP was a cutter but ended up going through the Southern tier, RLMAO! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk If what you're thinking comes to fruition then, it sounds like you think most of upstate NY would get 6+ inches of snow then? That low would have to stay pretty far south for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Models are tools, that's it, and some are much sharper than others so we'll see where it ends up when it's all said and done!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: When? I don't care what the models show just like yesterday's LP was a cutter but ended up going through the Southern tier, RLMAO! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk ...and it STILL jumped into 30s and melted the little bit that came with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The NAMs have nudged a little farther south so that everyone north of 31 gets about 6 inches from the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Nam was pretty nice and of course it was cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 That’s just dirty... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s just dirty... . It's like it said, "How do I screw over all of the major cities?" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Wow. HRR and NAM 3k are super depressing for BUF-SYR. Like NO snow at all. Ouch. Hope they’re wrong. Knowing this winter, they will be on the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: If it rains anywhere in Onondaga County tomorrow morning afternoon or night, ill streak down RT 31 naked right across the bridge that goes over 481, RLMAO!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Deal. I'll video that sh*t for the forum. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Made it down to -3.3° but have since jumped up a degree due to some clouds rolling in.. Probably already hit my minimum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 RGEM looks pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Arw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 All wrf members look similar.. Going to be some nice upslope for the tug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Not sure the rgem is handling this well compared to what the rest of guidance looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 It's like it said, "How do I screw over all of the major cities?" lolYeah kinda. This is HRRR early Sunday AM. Still some NW lake effect for ROC and SYR still probably to go after that frame. But BUF will be done by then. Lake effect... sorry enhanced... this year since a pure lake effect event just won’t happen for anyone! The high res runs tonight are all showing this almost lake shadow like anti snow strip along the Lake Erie shore into Metro BUF. Just crazy it’s mid January and the lake will be too warm and push our temps to far above freezing for most of the event. A freaking lake shadow in January. Don’t think I can recall a season we have gotten shafted on so many storms. Transition Zone Special!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah kinda. This is HRRR early Sunday AM. Still some NW lake effect for ROC and SYR still probably to go after that frame. But BUF will be done by then. Lake effect... sorry enhanced... this year since a pure lake effect event just won’t happen for anyone! The high res runs tonight are all showing this almost lake shadow like anti snow strip along the Lake Erie shore into Metro BUF. Just crazy it’s mid January and the lake will be too warm and push our temps to far above freezing for most of the event. A freaking lake shadow in January. Don’t think I can recall a season we have gotten shafted on so many storms. Transition Zone Special! . Yeah, a lake that is usually frozen by now is wrecking it for you in January. What a rough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Deal. I'll video that sh*t for the forum. Let's gather up wolfie, blizz, and CNY and we'll all ride in the car and throw rainy ice balls at him. It's like Impractical Jokers...er, Impractical Weenies. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Well I’m in position in Mont Tremblant. Looks like a very nice spot for this storm track, it’s incredible how lucky I got with this trip considering the winter we’ve had! It’s beautiful here but quite cold, -7f....we still got in a nice soak in the outdoor hot tub though! low end forecast guess here - 5” high end amount 12” expecting 7” but I have no idea about local orographic influences so I’m hoping to be surprised. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Gfs is pretty wet. Some of this is probably liquid (imby) but that's debatable..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I wish we could just lock this Canadian run... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and it STILL jumped into 30s and melted the little bit that came with it! It started in the 30's bro, and I still managed to get 5", lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I wish we could just lock this Canadian run... Another wide right on the European, which is probably where we wanna see it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Gfs still mostly rain next weekend but this runs transfers all the way down to NC lol 0z icon is like the European and suppressed.. I'm starting to think that is a more likely scenario than a straight up cutter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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