BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 10" for my area, definitely taking the under. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: And still snowing with a multi-band set up Sunday night...TT goes out to hr 54.. Well slap my ass and call me Shirley. Didn’t realize that. Looks sweet! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Binghamton certainly didn't. Winter Weather Advisory for Onondaga for 2 to 5 inches and a mix. They included us with all the counties in their PA viewing area. lol Just go with KBGM's 90% probability map. It's usually closer to reality this season. They have us flipping to rain/snow mix Saturday night. The warm tongue will not be denied. pencil in 4-5" total. Might get an extra inch or two of LES scraps but that's usually a crapshoot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Just go with KBGM's 90% probability map. It's usually closer to reality this season. They have us flipping to rain/snow mix Saturday night. The warm tongue will not be denied. pencil in 4-5" total. Might get an extra inch or two of LES scraps but that's usually a crapshoot here. I feel like the lake enhanced and LES has been underestimated- as we are getting closer the models seem to be picking up on it. Could be 3” of scraps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs should grow a pair.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs should grow a pair.. It did. I could have drawn upwards in those dark reds but that would have been interwebs wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 What ppl need to understand about these HP's are that they are from a much different source region then those from the Pacific. If an Arctic HP which originates over Alberta or anywhere in any province in Canada wants to slide its ass over the MA, that's fine cause the air with them doesn't have modified Pacific air with them, lol, rather the air is frigid so it can do or go wherever it wants to go, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Tbh, I know most models have it headed to our NW but we usually see the warmth head right up the finger Lakes and downslope off the bumps in Cortland county and in turn we warm but this is a much different scenario and if we mix I dont think it'll be for very long. Imo, we don't mix at all cause it's not gonna be a screaming LLJ out of the SW or SE but we'll see I suppose. That cut off between Onondaga and Oswego counties is hilarious to me, lol! It'll either stay much further South or go way North of us as it's not gonna straddle the county lines like most guidance is showing. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Tbh, I know most models have it headed to our NW but we usually see the warmth head right up the finger Lakes and downslope off the bumps in Cortland county and in turn we warm but this is a much different scenario and if we mix I dont think it'll be for very long. Imo, we don't mix at all cause it's not gonna be a screaming LLJ out of the SW or SE but we'll see I suppose. That cut off between Onondaga and Oswego counties is hilarious to me, lol! It'll either stay much further South or go way North of us as it's not gonna straddle the county lines like most guidance is showing. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I agree. That’s odd placement. Either north or south. 50/50. Looks like this might come in a tick colder than I originally thought. A bit different than the last couple. We shall see. GFS consistency is remarkable with precip. You north country guys looking pretty good all around. We’ve built a 2-3” base here in Rochester. Starting to look like winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 With a setup like this, that SLP thats developing in E.CO would end up over GB WI if the same pattern was present but this SLP is hitting a brick wall that stretches from S. Alberta all the way to the SE, yes sort of like a banana HP but not quite. My guess is this SLP heads slowly ENE towards Iowa, Illinois and Indiana and then slows big time cause it has no choice due to the monstrous SHP situated right smack over the NE as you can clearly see the CAD happening all across the Carolinas. If this was a traditional Cutter, like some like to call them all that head to our North & West but this SLP will fail to head to our NW as I think it will instead head East across extreme SO NYS or No. PA, thats my call and I'm sticking to it, lol, but I may be wrong but no way are we getting above freezing tomorrow or anytime during this event. If we mix its because of the mid lvl SLP's and not the Surface one! The one place that may be easier to get past freezing would be extreme WNY and even they might not reach freezing either. The models don't have a good handle at all on this one so anything can happen, and I mean anything, lol! Even NYC has a good chance at some good front end thumping cause the HP over the NE means business! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The most widespread snow will occur Saturday within the warm advection regime ahead of the system. A broad area of strong isentropic ascent will produce a 4-6 hour period of steady precipitation, developing in the morning across Western NY and reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Across Western NY, model guidance continues to suggest enough of a warm layer aloft to support the chance of some sleet mixing in briefly from late morning through mid afternoon. If sleet lasts for an extended period of time, it would bring down snow accumulations. By late in the afternoon, surface temperatures may become warm enough to change the snow to rain close to the Lake Erie shore, with southerly downslope winds warming temperatures into the mid to upper 30s. Farther east, precip type will remain all snow from about Wayne County eastward. Snow accumulations through early Saturday evening will generally run 2-4 inches, perhaps a little higher across the southern Tug Hill as southerly upslope flow develops. Saturday night the widespread precipitation will taper off across Western NY as a mid level dry slot moves into the area. This will produce a relative lull in precipitation coverage and amounts through most of Saturday night. Temperatures will also be above freezing for a time Saturday night, yielding a rain/snow mix across Western NY at lower elevations. Later Saturday night colder air will move back into Western NY, changing everything back to snow. The airmass will also become cold enough to begin lake enhancement across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie late Saturday night, with snowfall rates picking up across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills late. Additional accumulations Saturday night will range from a few inches across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, to little or nothing at lower elevations. Meanwhile, east of Lake Ontario there will be less of a mid level dry slot, so there will be less of a break in precipitation Saturday night. Expect periods of snow to continue, especially across the Tug Hill supported by continued upslope flow. This will support additional accumulations of a few inches at lower elevations, and 3- 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. Sunday cold air will pour back into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the low. Boundary layer flow will be westerly most of the day, targeting areas east of the lakes with heavy lake enhanced snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will climb to around 10K feet by late in the day as cold air deepens. Outside of the main lake effect areas, snow will be relatively light with minor accumulations. East of Lake Ontario, it won`t be pure lake effect, but rather lake enhanced upslope flow supporting the potential for heavy snow across the Tug Hill Plateau. This may produce additional accumulations of up to 5-7 inches across the Tug Hill, and a few inches at lower elevations. Later Sunday afternoon and evening boundary layer flow will begin to veer more northwesterly, diminishing the influence of lake enhancement across the Tug Hill. East of Lake Erie, it will be a little more of a pure lake effect setup with less synoptic scale moisture and ascent. Deepening instability and upslope flow should support persistent moderate snow across the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and hills of Wyoming County Sunday, and continuing Sunday night for that matter. Additional accumulations during the day Sunday of 5-7 inches are possible, with more Sunday night. Total accumulations from Saturday through late Sunday night will be highest across the higher terrain east of the lakes. East of Lake Erie, the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and hills of Wyoming County may see 12-18 inches total. The Tug Hill Plateau will see 12- 18 inches as well, with 7-10 inches for the surrounding lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. The Buffalo area should see 4-6 inches total over the entire weekend, but this will come in two batches with some melting between. Rochester may see 4-7 inches total in several batches with some melting between. The lowest snow amounts will be across Allegany County and the western Finger Lakes with little in the way of lake enhanced snow reaching these areas Sunday. As far as headlines go, issued a Winter Storm Warning east of Lake Ontario where the most widespread heavy snow will occur. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the area for Saturday through portions of Saturday night and Sunday morning. Also issued a Winter Storm Watch for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie for late Saturday night through early Monday morning for lake effect snow. Note, we are handling the potential for wind gusts to 50 mph within the winter weather advisories and warnings instead of issuing separate wind advisory headlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NWS has 1 hour of mixing for Fulton lol But they claim all snow Wayne county east, albeit only 1 hr lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Already below zero, -1° to be exact.. Forecast low is -3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 WOW quiet the blizzard up in Newfoundland! 103mph wind gusts with 30”+ of snow. That’s crazy! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 29 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: WOW quiet the blizzard up in Newfoundland! 103mph wind gusts with 30”+ of snow. That’s crazy! . Osu from buffalo lives there in St. John. His Facebook page has crazy pics and vids 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Osu from buffalo lives there in St. John. His Facebook page has crazy pics and vids Did he move there for the crazy weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Where the heck is Bing. getting all this "rain" they have in the forecast for Onondaga tomorrow night??? They are obviously not impressed with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Did he move there for the crazy weather?No, left Bermuda to pursue a position in Labrador, St John's, must be awesome. I went to Met school with him, smart guy!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Where the heck is Bing. getting all this "rain" they have in the forecast for Onondaga tomorrow night??? They are obviously not impressed with this system.If it rains anywhere in Onondaga County tomorrow morning afternoon or night, ill streak down RT 31 naked right across the bridge that goes over 481, RLMAO!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: If it rains anywhere in Onondaga County tomorrow morning afternoon or night, ill streak down RT 31 naked right across the bridge that goes over 481, RLMAO!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Bahaha! That section is chaotic enough. We don't need your body distracting all the drivers................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: If it rains anywhere in Onondaga County tomorrow morning afternoon or night, ill streak down RT 31 naked right across the bridge that goes over 481, RLMAO!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Apparently several of you Syracuse area guys are excited about this possibility. You better hope it doesn't rain. I'm holding you to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Apparently several of you Syracuse area guys are excited about this possibility. You better hope it doesn't rain. I'm holding you to it. I will be there with balls on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Gfs shows some rain even north of me lol But majority of the precip is finished.. Both bgm and buf have temps warming around 2am, into the mid 30s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The storm does have an attached warm front lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gfs shows some rain even north of me lol But majority of the precip is finished.. Both bgm and buf have temps warming around 2am, into the mid 30s.. What's odd is they don't have temps getting higher than the lower 30s. For my location, it doesn't get above freezing. However, with howling winds from the....SOUTH...I can easily see where they're coming from. Just another kick in the nads from this bloody winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, TugHillMatt said: What's odd is they don't have temps getting higher than the lower 30s. For my location, it doesn't get above freezing. However, with howling winds from the....SOUTH...I can easily see where they're coming from. Just another kick in the nads from this bloody winter. Lol temps in the 20s but a rain and snow mix? Doesn't make sense haha.. Even I'm forecasted 33° overnight.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 This system ain't getting North of the MI border!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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