Syrmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, it goes the Miller B route.. What's the Euro got for storm type next weekend? The GFS has been all over the place with this next weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not much at 0z.. Keeps the streams separate.. 12z coming out now, still a long way till next weekend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much at 0z.. Keeps the streams separate.. 12z coming out now, still a long way till next weekend lol Thats also a colder look as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro is trying to gain latitude lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not going to make it..Just gets squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The one thing being shown on the majority of LR guidance is one strong HP after another. Becomes a timing issue, that can't be resolved 9 days out lol This system here in the super LR, takes almost an identical track as sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Upgraded to a warning.. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches at lower elevations, and 12 to 18 inches on the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph producing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest accumulations will focus on the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 They obviously don't know where the tug hill is lol Even though their is a difference between "tug hill region" and"tug hill plateau" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: They obviously don't know where the tug hill is lol Even though their is a difference between "tug hill region" and"tug hill plateau" Wow, BUF certainly responded to the further south LP in 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Noticed the WWAs only run through 10pm Sat, and the WSWs run through 1AM Mon! Can't imagine why they wouldn't extend the WWAs through at least Sunday - esp. Wayne Cty east to see those 8-12" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 48 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The one thing being shown on the majority of LR guidance is one strong HP after another. Becomes a timing issue, that can't be resolved 9 days out lol This system here in the super LR, takes almost an identical track as sat.. And there’s our HP doing it’s best to outrun the LP. Crazy. Obviously, we need major changes upstream to disrupt this devil shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 We need a major PV disruption. In a way I’m kind of happy the change has been delayed. I’ll be ok if this pattern sticks until after my Western Ski vacation. For a minute it looked like the pattern was gonna flip just in time for my flights- which would’ve driven me back to the bottle. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think they are looking at this as a 2 prong for wny.. Sunday forecast is mainly Wsw-west flow, turning NW Sunday night. They would have to extend it to Tues lol This is referencing Kroc.. Sunday Night Snow showers likely. Patchy blowing snow between 8pm and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%. M.L.King Day Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, vortmax said: Wow, BUF certainly responded to the further south LP in 12z runs. Binghamton certainly didn't. Winter Weather Advisory for Onondaga for 2 to 5 inches and a mix. They included us with all the counties in their PA viewing area. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Buffalo is including LES into their forecast.. WWA for wny is 2"-4" , the rest is lake effect/enhancement.. But it doesn't include all the lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Buffalo is including LES into their forecast.. WWA for wny is 2"-4" , the rest is lake effect/enhancement.. But it doesn't include all the lake effect.. Thanks, I just realized that. I think we have yet to get more than 3 or 4 inches of pure synoptic snow this year from any system. Pathetic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 If u read between the lines, they are expecting a moderate accumulation Sunday night along the south shore..Now both the gfs and Ggem put the kabash on this by Monday am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Nam keeps wanting to throw this warm tongue into parts of CNY..It dissipates next frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 If that doesn't happen, totals would be higher for this area in particular. But, sticking with the year's pattern, I wouldn't be surprised if what the NAM is showing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam keeps wanting to throw this warm tongue into parts of CNY..It dissipates next frame.. I'm guessing the NAM says no to flipping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Here is kbgm map that includes most of it but probably not all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Decent collaboration from east to west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'm guessing the NAM says no to flipping? These are the warmest frames in and around kbuf.. Roc flips to some sleet on the next frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The models have pin pointed the same area for like 7 days now lol Or it seems like it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Here was the gfs on Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here was the gfs on Monday.. And 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 RGEM looks great again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Icon who is usually a little to warm is pretty cold as well.. Precipitation amounts may hurt more than p-type.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, 96blizz said: RGEM looks great again! And still snowing with a multi-band set up Sunday night...TT goes out to hr 54.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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