wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NWS is talking 8-1 SLR with 4-1SLR near the mix line..It's not until after the CF moves through that ratios improve.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Arw Actually has a little SW flow at the end lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NWS is talking 8-1 SLR with 4-1SLR near the mix line..It's not until after the CF moves through that ratios improve.. Really? Hard to buy given what this moisture is slamming into. Would have thought high to low to high again on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NMM and still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not bad. One more tick south and we may not flip over entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Really? Hard to buy given what this moisture is slamming into. Would have thought high to low to high again on the back side. They claim WAA ratios are always overdone.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 00z Euro was almost same position as RGEM...low right over Toronto. It doesn't flip to rain on that run in WNY into around 8pm or so. And it's back to snow rather quickly, per that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 of the HRW members have a SW flow to start, while other guidance is wsw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Rgem at the same time.. Full run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem at the same time.. Full run Damn that's .78" at KBUF liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Seriously why do the models have to relentlessly tease us this year. Toss it... No point in getting my hopes up.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Damn that's .78" at KBUF liquid equivalent 10 to 1 that's 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Really? Hard to buy given what this moisture is slamming into. Would have thought high to low to high again on the back side. I can see low ratios being real. I seem to recall another WAA driven snow event earlier this season where we (SYR area) picked up 2-4" within the first hours of onset and then dendrite production went to he!! as mid layers warmed. Ratios were sub 10:1 for the whole event. At least here. The system underperformed relative to forecasts and qpf panel gazing expectations. I think Kuchera method actually hinted at this and was right. Wolfie would remember this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It’s been snowing heavily in Pittsford for the last hour. We can do really well on N winds. Dry air be damned. It’s almost always missed by models. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kroc get 2-4,3-6 on MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Damn that's .78" at KBUF liquid equivalent Over an 1" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Almost lunchtime and yet to hit 4° lol NWS calling for-3 tonight, yeah ok.. More like double digits below zero unless clouds move in earlier than anticipated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Temp is at 10 here and has been snowing on and off all morning. Feels a hell of a lot colder than that with the wind. Even my dog didn't want nothing to do with being outside this morning Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Still doesn't feel like winter here with a dusting of snowcover. It's cold but without snow it feels empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs through the entirety.. I'm always stuck near the balls.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs through the entirety.. I'm always stuck near the balls.. Also almost 7" at KBUF might see a long WWA for the area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Canadian staying with the far south LP. Almost over ROC. Wow. Can we get another 25 miles south? It also results in NW flow almost immediately. Big differences in the models with these two variables (wind flow and track). Big implications for BUF-Roc. Id go with the NAM, a bit north with a w-wsw flow following passage. But dang, cmc would be great for the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Canadian staying with the far south LP. Almost over ROC. Wow. Can we get another 25 miles south? It also results in NW flow almost immediately. Big differences in the models with these two variables (wind flow and track). Big implications for BUF-Roc. Id go with the NAM, a bit north with a w-wsw flow following passage. But dang, cmc would be great for the south shore. CMC would be the equivalent of Mila Kunis barging through your front door naked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Canadian guidance always sticks together lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like KBGM will go with WWA's for most of their CWA later this afternoon per their HWO. Northern Oneida Cty will convert to a Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I'm thinking WWA for all of WNY, but I've been wrong, well too many times to count... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1008 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph, producing blowing and drifting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs is pretty much a cutter/CF next weekend..With a little light snow on the backside..Looks like our friend up north is coming in with a more wintry Outlook.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs is pretty much a cutter/CF next weekend..With a little light snow on the backside..Looks like our friend up north is coming in with a more wintry Outlook.. The CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Yeah, it goes the Miller B route.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now