CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 What yr was it Max as i'm trying to find NARR from Penn State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2013 or 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: What yr was it Max as i'm trying to find NARR from Penn State 2007 or 2008? Edit: 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: 2007 or 2008? ill check but ur probably right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: That’s much further south then this one is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Yes different set-up but pretty much the same amt of moisture before the changeover, then the enhancement kicked in and that was history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That’s much further south then this one is going. Yes, we know that. Not really comparable but it was front end "thumpish"... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That’s much further south then this one is going. Lets keep it real cause we really don't know where its going BW at this juncture! The question was about the front end thump and this was a substantial one for US, not WNY, and the LE kicked in and thats all she wrote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean its just not the best setup, a surface low passing 100 miles to our North, not good. You can't blame them for that. In a good winter this would be a borderline nuisance event for much of the CWA. I actually thought the whole write-up was pretty damn good, going in depth and explaining why one shouldn't get their hopes up to snow over their boots. Kinda like constantly posting Kuchera maps and then being consistently disappointed. Just saying... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 Top analog for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yup... . You showed several looks earlier...are there other frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 You showed several looks earlier...are there other frames?That’s roughly 1pm-10pm tomorrow. Interesting for sure but as usual with the BTV probably way way way over done...Here is a link that should take you the page. Runs every 6 hours.https://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: V day storm of 2013 thumped for a good 8-12hrs and we got well over 8" then we mixed then back to snow with lots of enhancement and ended up ear 14" totals, but I guess we'll see! I already mentioned the horrific H700mb lp as its mostly Northern stream energy, lol! 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: That was a good storm and you're right, we got thumped on front end pretty good. I think I ended up near 20"...the backend outperformed the front end. Of note, my kids had school the day of the front end. They were released early but I had to laugh...the forecast was gruesome but the school system (Phoenix) was clearly gaming the snow days with that one as they cancelled school the 2nd day. Uh, yeah, I moved here....so there's no way that's happening. Sorry, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Uh, yeah, I moved here....so there's no way that's happening. Sorry, guys! Didn't say it was. Context my friend...just reminiscing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Didn't say it was. Context my friend...just reminiscing... Oh, I know. I understood the context. Sounds like good memories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, I know. I understood the context. Sounds like good memories. It was. And that's all we have now since YOU ruined it all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 HRRR doesn't seem overly impressive with snow totals. I thought it did pretty good with Lake effect? Maybe it's not as good at picking up on enhancement events? It is one of the models I'm least familiar with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Can we pin a post? This can’t be said enough. These are losers 90% of the time. How often do we see WAA snows? That's all they are talking about lol Not clippers, not cold fronts , not lake effect or lake enhancement lol That's how we get most of our snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Once the CF moves through.. SLRs rapidly ramp up toward 20:1 as this occurs, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: HRRR doesn't seem overly impressive with snow totals. I thought it did pretty good with Lake effect? Maybe it's not as good at picking up on enhancement events? It is one of the models I'm least familiar with. I hope we dont get f&cked with single bands SW of us. When I first moved here we seemed to get those but last fee years not so much. WNW flow is either up by Wolfie and the toothless people or down by the rich f@ckers near Skaneatales. #sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I remember LES on a WNW trajectory where SYR would get 15-20” and we’d be sunny in the ROC. I feel like it’s been a long while. It seems like the jackpot zone moved to your SW and N. Anyway, you guys are due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I hope we dont get f&cked with single bands SW of us. When I first moved here we seemed to get those but last fee years not so much. WNW flow is either up by Wolfie and the toothless people or down by the rich f@ckers near Skaneatales. #sad Yeah, that is what ALL of the lake effect events (what piddly ones we have had) have been so far. Camillus, Skan, SW Onondaga county. I have also been secretly hoping. Bville seems to be close enough to get involved...just not be the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, that is what ALL of the lake effect events (what piddly ones we have had) have been so far. Camillus, Skan, SW Onondaga county. I have also been secretly hoping. Bville seems to be close enough to get involved...just not be the jackpot. Bottom line is where I lived most of my life, this place rocks for snow and winter weather. SE Virginia, northern NJ, north germany, and CT...all suck azz for snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Bottom line is where I lived most of my life, this place rocks for snow and winter weather. SE Virginia, northern NJ, north germany, and CT...all suck azz for snow... CT kind of depends on the location as there is a lot of variance. I average close to 50" per year where I am. Retention can be an issue and it's feast or famine. I was out in Cooperstown New York a couple of weeks ago for the first time and I was impressed with the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: CT kind of depends on the location as there is a lot of variance. I average close to 50" per year where I am. Retention can be an issue and it's feast or famine. I was out in Cooperstown New York a couple of weeks ago for the first time and I was impressed with the area. You are right. I was in SECT. The only decent winter was 1995/96. The rest was forgettable shite. 1993 Superstorm....5" then slop and dryslot. My GF's place had 20" in West Hartford. Since I left in 2000, they have a Blizzard every year. I pray it rains there from December to April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: You are right. I was in SECT. The only decent winter was 1995/96. The rest was forgettable shite. 1993 Superstorm....5" then slop and dryslot. My GF's place had 20" in West Hartford. Yeah you're right Southeast CT it's pretty much the worst place in CT for snow. You're in a way better spot now. The snowiest area of the state in northwest Connecticut actually gets some decent leftover LES squalls and upslope with a few towns averaging like 80" + inches per year. I've never experienced a true lake-effect snowstorm before but have always wanted to. Once in a while I may get a few leftover squalls but usually they don't make it past the Berkshires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 Is this graph correct? posted by wgrz, seems extreme to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Is this graph correct? posted by wgrz, seems extreme to me It's wgrz...the shock is that it's legible... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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