Upstate/Eastern New York

[Thinksnow18]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Final call 3" by Sunday for MBY. 

Final call 2" of left over slop from the mixed bag saturday-Saturday night.

[wolfie09]

Both NAM products like Syracuse and the hills to the South tomorrow..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

22 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I'll see your 3" and raise it another 4" IMBY. 7" total by Sunday 8 a.m. (doubt I'll be up at 7a on a weekend )

bullish for you, lol, but this is probably our best chance for at least 3-6" but we'll see!

[wolfie09]

For Saturday and still snowing..

[rochesterdave]

NAM upper levels definitely trending colder. Interesting. 

[tim123]

Never changes over on nam. But its nam

[96blizz]

RGEM running and has tonight’s low in northern PA!!!

[96blizz]

I swear I didn’t hack into the RGEM!  What a bullseye for me...

[wolfie09]

Going to be a tale of 2 halves lol

[rochesterdave]

Guidance coming in quite a bit cooler. I’m confused. 

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Day 3 and 4 

Timing doesn't match up great..

Part of day 3 is in day 4..lol

[wolfie09]

45 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

RGEM running and has tonight’s low in northern PA!!!

3k was pretty far south too.

[wolfie09]

Hrdps goes the PA route as well.. Doesn't matter much..Takes time for the system to get going..

[Syrmax]

32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Going to be a tale of 2 halves lol

Better hope we're the KC Chiefs and not the Bills.  (Cheap shot but I had to take it cuz our team is the new Bills). 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

We all know tomorrow's system is now a PA border slider when most guidance had it above Lake Ontario and this was 24hrs ago and that's what happens when a system, especially a weak ass one hits a brick wall, it has no choice but to exit stage right, lol!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Now this may have some serious implications regarding this weekend event for sure so well see!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[wolfie09]

The aforementioned next system will start to spread warm
advection aloft over WNY late overnight into Saturday morning.
As such, light snow will become common and spread eastward
across the area through the morning and early afternoon hours. A
track of the surface low is favored across Wisconsin into
Ontario, which is well north of the area. This will result in a
warm tongue making its way into the lower Great Lakes. Evolution
of this warm tongue is of key importance to the eventual weather
over much of our area. The GFS quite oddly is the warm outlying
solution with positive 850 hPa temperatures running up to the
south Lake Ontario shoreline as warm advection continues into
the evening. The NAM and ECMWF and GEFS mean all fail to do
this. However, give the track of the low, and southwesterly flow
off the lake, it seems difficult to fathom that the boundary
layer won`t run up above freezing from Dunkirk to Buffalo and
probably at least as far east as Rochester. As such, it would
seem precipitation should at least mix with sleet in the coldest
solutions and mix with rain or change to rain in the warmer
solutions. That said, a full changeover has been put in the
forecast from Dunkirk to Buffalo with a mix with rain/sleet over
the Southern Tier and all the way up along the entirety of the
southern shore of Lake Ontario.

Accumulations of snow in warm advection are always tricky. The
SLRs are virtually always overestimated in the multi-model
blends and the Cobb method likewise yields ratios that are too
high most of the time. This will be of key concern due to the
extensive riming likely in our warm advection regime given the
magnitude of warm air off the surface and the probability of
near or above zero Celsius at 850 hPa. These both work to
drastically decrease the SLRs observed. The forecast was thus
built with far lower than climo SLRs for at least the warm
advection portion of the event.

As the trailing cold front pushes across the area Saturday
evening and night, cold air will come rushing in, and soundings
will quickly become drastically unstable in the lower levels. A
nice push of differential PVA works with these lapse rates to
probably yield a quick push of snow along and just behind the
front for everyone before moisture peels off and lake effect
becomes the predominant issue. As this occurs, and concurrent
with the cold frontal passage, wind off the deck starts to ramp
up toward 50 kts, and given unstable low level lapse rates, this
will yield a wind post-frontal period across the area. However,
given the exceedingly wet snow ahead of the front, it probably
will take a bit before blowing snow would become a concern, and
most areas other than the inland North Country will not have
seen enough snow to make blowing snow an issue until late into
Saturday night.

As lake effect ramps up in cold advection overnight Saturday
night into Sunday, the Lake Erie band will start near Buffalo
then wander southward as the boundary layer cools. Quick wet
accumulations may be possible in Buffalo before the much more
efficient snows drift with the band toward the Boston Hills and
points southward. SLRs rapidly ramp up toward 20:1 as this
occurs, as well. Similarly, the same thing happens east of Lake
Ontario on Sunday, with a dominant band likely east of Lake
Ontario to dump high ratio lake snows on and near the Tug Hill.
Headlines in both locations will be likely.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

The area I highlighted should wet-bulb down to freezing or just above as the area just to my West is starting to light up with blues and greens, lol!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The aforementioned next system will start to spread warm
advection aloft over WNY late overnight into Saturday morning.
As such, light snow will become common and spread eastward
across the area through the morning and early afternoon hours. A
track of the surface low is favored across Wisconsin into
Ontario, which is well north of the area. This will result in a
warm tongue making its way into the lower Great Lakes. Evolution
of this warm tongue is of key importance to the eventual weather
over much of our area. The GFS quite oddly is the warm outlying
solution with positive 850 hPa temperatures running up to the
south Lake Ontario shoreline as warm advection continues into
the evening. The NAM and ECMWF and GEFS mean all fail to do
this. However, give the track of the low, and southwesterly flow
off the lake, it seems difficult to fathom that the boundary
layer won`t run up above freezing from Dunkirk to Buffalo and
probably at least as far east as Rochester. As such, it would
seem precipitation should at least mix with sleet in the coldest
solutions and mix with rain or change to rain in the warmer
solutions. That said, a full changeover has been put in the
forecast from Dunkirk to Buffalo with a mix with rain/sleet over
the Southern Tier and all the way up along the entirety of the
southern shore of Lake Ontario.

Accumulations of snow in warm advection are always tricky. The
SLRs are virtually always overestimated in the multi-model
blends and the Cobb method likewise yields ratios that are too
high most of the time. This will be of key concern due to the
extensive riming likely in our warm advection regime given the
magnitude of warm air off the surface and the probability of
near or above zero Celsius at 850 hPa. These both work to
drastically decrease the SLRs observed. The forecast was thus
built with far lower than climo SLRs for at least the warm
advection portion of the event.

As the trailing cold front pushes across the area Saturday
evening and night, cold air will come rushing in, and soundings
will quickly become drastically unstable in the lower levels. A
nice push of differential PVA works with these lapse rates to
probably yield a quick push of snow along and just behind the
front for everyone before moisture peels off and lake effect
becomes the predominant issue. As this occurs, and concurrent
with the cold frontal passage, wind off the deck starts to ramp
up toward 50 kts, and given unstable low level lapse rates, this
will yield a wind post-frontal period across the area. However,
given the exceedingly wet snow ahead of the front, it probably
will take a bit before blowing snow would become a concern, and
most areas other than the inland North Country will not have
seen enough snow to make blowing snow an issue until late into
Saturday night.

As lake effect ramps up in cold advection overnight Saturday
night into Sunday, the Lake Erie band will start near Buffalo
then wander southward as the boundary layer cools. Quick wet
accumulations may be possible in Buffalo before the much more
efficient snows drift with the band toward the Boston Hills and
points southward. SLRs rapidly ramp up toward 20:1 as this
occurs, as well. Similarly, the same thing happens east of Lake
Ontario on Sunday, with a dominant band likely east of Lake
Ontario to dump high ratio lake snows on and near the Tug Hill.
Headlines in both locations will be likely.

What a horrible disc, lol!  They seriously hate snow!

[wolfie09]

They don't even mention any type of NW flow or enhancement for next week..

Lake effect snows will continue east of the lakes for much of
the early portion of next week as cold continues to reside and
pinwheel across the Great Lakes. What`s interesting about this
pattern is while the ensembles all yield a few days of cold air,
the formation of a coherent Hudson Bay low is utterly lacking,
thus while the long term portion of the 7 day remains cold, it
would seem difficult for it to be entrenched much beyond that as
there is no large scale forcing for longitudinal transport of
cold air into the eastern CONUS

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

They don't even mention any type of NW flow or enhancement for next week..

Lake effect snows will continue east of the lakes for much of
the early portion of next week as cold continues to reside and
pinwheel across the Great Lakes. What`s interesting about this
pattern is while the ensembles all yield a few days of cold air,
the formation of a coherent Hudson Bay low is utterly lacking,
thus while the long term portion of the 7 day remains cold, it
would seem difficult for it to be entrenched much beyond that as
there is no large scale forcing for longitudinal transport of
cold air into the eastern CONUS

I guess that can't change between now and then, WTF?

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

They don't even mention any type of NW flow or enhancement for next week..

Lake effect snows will continue east of the lakes for much of
the early portion of next week as cold continues to reside and
pinwheel across the Great Lakes. What`s interesting about this
pattern is while the ensembles all yield a few days of cold air,
the formation of a coherent Hudson Bay low is utterly lacking,
thus while the long term portion of the 7 day remains cold, it
would seem difficult for it to be entrenched much beyond that as
there is no large scale forcing for longitudinal transport of
cold air into the eastern CONUS

Very little moisture, it's a dry cold airmass. Would rather it be 50 and sunny. Terrible Pattern. 

[rochesterdave]

Stark differences from the disco mentioning blizzard conditions just a couple periods ago.

[DeltaT13]

29 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

What a horrible disc, lol!  They seriously hate snow!

I mean its just not the best setup, a surface low passing 100 miles to our North, not good. You can't blame them for that.  In a good winter this would be a borderline nuisance event for much of the CWA. 

[Syrmax]

THIS:
"...Accumulations of snow in warm advection are always tricky. The SLRs are virtually always overestimated in the multi-model blends and the Cobb method likewise yields ratios that are too
high most of the time..."

This is why relying on NWP output for WAA "Thump" snow is a loser most of the time, other than for brief periods (hour or two near onset).

[CNY-LES FREAK]

V day storm of 2013 thumped for a good 8-12hrs and we got well over 8" then we mixed then back to snow with lots of enhancement and ended up ear 14" totals, but I guess we'll see!  I already mentioned the horrific H700mb lp as its mostly Northern stream energy, lol!

[rochesterdave]

22 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

THIS:
"...Accumulations of snow in warm advection are always tricky. The SLRs are virtually always overestimated in the multi-model blends and the Cobb method likewise yields ratios that are too
high most of the time..."

This is why relying on NWP output for WAA "Thump" snow is a loser most of the time, other than for brief periods (hour or two near onset).

Can we pin a post? This can’t be said enough. These are losers 90% of the time. 

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

V day storm of 2013 thumped for a good 8-12hrs and we got well over 8" then we mixed then back to snow with lots of enhancement and ended up ear 14" totals, but I guess we'll see!  I already mentioned the horrific H700mb lp as its mostly Northern stream energy, lol!

That was a good storm and you're right, we got thumped on front end pretty good.  I think I ended up near 20"...the backend outperformed the front end. Of note, my kids had school the day of the front end.  They were released early but I had to laugh...the forecast was gruesome but the school system (Phoenix) was clearly gaming the snow days with that one as they cancelled school the 2nd day.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

That was a good storm and you're right, we got thumped on front end pretty good.  I think I ended up near 20"...the backend outperformed the front end. Of note, my kids had school the day of the front end.  They were released early but I had to laugh...the forecast was gruesome but the school system (Phoenix) was clearly gaming the snow days with that one as they cancelled school the 2nd day.

Im glad you remember cause I knew you would!