wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Idk if the mix line even makes it to Rochester lol but once again lack of precip is the issue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro unchanged.. It’s actually a bit better for the persistently less snowy central finger lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro map? Still LES ongoing in favored NW flow areas. This includes Thursday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 48 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: In my experience microspikes are more than adequate for ADK high peak winter hikes (a good pair though). I hiked Gothics in December when it was quite icy, and microspikes worked just fine. Make sure to have at least one hiking partner. And choose your peak(s) wisely. I hiked Wright a few winters ago. Got above tree line and had difficulty following cairns to the peak with 50+ mph winds and near 0 vis. Summit of Wright is notorious for high winds and severe conditions. I'm heading up to Lake Placid tomorrow, mostly cross-country skiing rather than hiking this trip. That is if the snow makes an appearance in time. Will post some pics to get you jazzed up for your trip! What type of gear do you wear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 This is the guy I’m going with next month. he’s an insane videographer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Still LES ongoing in favored NW flow areas. This includes Thursday too. Syracuse gonna start making its move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 BTV! For the Win!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 First and last call here.. 2"-4" tomorrow 6"-10" Saturday Not touching anything after that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Syracuse gonna start making its move? They could if LES sets up right. I’m south of SYR in Skaneateles- and this is a perfect NW flow set up for us plus we have about 950’ of elevation. that map is 10:1 too - so over a foot from Thursday to Tuesday is looking more and more plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I didn't even think BTV was still running their in house meso model, wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lmao 1.4" at KBUF? Honestly just rain the whole time. That's as useful as a prison with no cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: BTV! For the Win!!! . If that were remotely correct that band, which happens to be just about directly over my area of Williamsville, would drop about 6" of pure fluff...i can't EVER remember a time that a band dropped that much whose origin was lake Huron. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nearly impossible to actually pin this down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Look at the gfs for Sunday/Monday Almost all west-wnw.. Track change wind change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 If that were remotely correct that band, which happens to be just about directly over my area of Williamsville, would drop about 6" of pure fluff...i can't EVER remember a time that a band dropped that much whose origin was lake Huron. January 2010. Larger more complex overall system but a unique NW flow band from the upper lakes did linger over WNY for the better part of a day. 17” at KBUF and 31” at KIAG.https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2009-2010&event=D. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: January 2010. Larger more complex overall system but a unique NW flow band from the upper lakes did linger over WNY for the better part of a day. 17” at KBUF and 31” at KIAG.https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2009-2010&event=D . I actually remember that. We were in Cheektowaga at the time and if I recall it was uber cold that day and was like 30:1 so the snow compacted quickly to about 10"...so you're saying there's a chance!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Little bit of light snow falling at the moment, 34.7°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: They could if LES sets up right. I’m south of SYR in Skaneateles- and this is a perfect NW flow set up for us plus we have about 950’ of elevation. that map is 10:1 too - so over a foot from Thursday to Tuesday is looking more and more plausible. That area is sneaky impressive with NW flow. I drive down the east side of Skaneateles lake and I’m always surprised by the snow amounts! Cool area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think we are definitely looking at a more WNW situ with this track. Wolfie appears to be in the sweet spot! All in: BUF 2-4 ROC 2-4 SYR 6” Tug region 14” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It does warm up some as the WF moves through, could melt some of the snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Smart move based on guidance like RGEM. WWA up. Let’s go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The snowiest period for Roc should be late Thursday-Friday am (decent NW trajectory on reasonable winds). I don’t see more than 1-2” from our Saturday system and follow up. The LE following is on a WNW and waaay too strong for ROC. Hope I’m wrong. Still a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It all depends Dave, each model has its own variation.. Track dependent, the longer the primary holds on the more Westerly the flow is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 For example Monday Ggem vs gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Final call 3" by Sunday for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Final call 3" by Sunday for MBY. I'll see your 3" and raise it another 4" IMBY. 7" total by Sunday 8 a.m. (doubt I'll be up at 7a on a weekend ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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